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Severe 2025 Severe Thread

Detective WX said:
Could be one of those years where minor events continue into Feb-Mar, only to wake up big time in April and it ends up being busy ( some cases super busy) 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2014 and last year spring to mind within the last quarter century.
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Also not sure there is any science behind it but I always attribute active winter patterns with multiple winter weather chances to an active spring severe season. The two seem to go hand in hand more often than not.
 
Day 4 and 5 (Wednesday-Thursday) 15% area for Central Texas. Might get something further east on Friday as well. However instability does look to be lacking which given the time of year isn’t too surprising.
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So the daughter is at ETSU in Johnson City. They alerted the whole campus for Tornado warning and to seek shelter doomsday style on outdoor speakers. I mean, I have her set on Radarscope exactly. Still not sure why, they weren't in the polygon. Every kid and parent losing their minds and total panic.
 

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GFS dropping a lot of rain over the next week+. Wouldn’t surprise me if there is a severe threat or two over parts of MS/AL during the latter part of next week.
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I feel like Georgia is prime for another significant tornado threat. It's been relatively quiet in north GA area (especially the Atlanta/Athens corridor)
  • 2023: On January 12, an EF3 tornado struck Spalding County, causing significant damage along Kendall Drive. The National Weather Service confirmed this tornado among several others that impacted the region during the severe weather event.
    11alive.com

  • 2021: On March 25, an EF4 tornado with winds of 170 mph struck Coweta and Heard counties, including the city of Newnan. This tornado damaged approximately 1,700 homes and caused significant destruction in the area.
    weather.gov

  • 2019: On March 3, a powerful EF3 tornado affected parts of Muscogee, Harris, and Talbot counties. This tornado was part of a larger outbreak and caused extensive damage, including the destruction of homes and significant tree damage.
    weather.gov

  • 2017: In January, a significant tornado outbreak occurred in Georgia, with multiple EF3 tornadoes confirmed. One such tornado caused severe damage in Dougherty County, resulting in fatalities and widespread destruction.

  • 2013: In January, parts of north Georgia were impacted by an EF3 tornado, which injured 17 people and caused substantial damage to numerous structures.
    gema.georgia.gov

  • 2011: On April 27, an EF4 tornado impacted Catoosa County, including the town of Ringgold. This tornado resulted in seven fatalities and 30 injuries, causing extensive damage to homes, businesses, and schools.
    weather.gov
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 0z model suite just took a big snort of crack.

Subseasonally speaking, a big Pacific Jet retraction followed by a severe weather outbreak in the spring makes a lot of sense, especially in a year like this.

This might be a warning shot.
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I hope the analogs to 2011 you mentioned on twitter don't verify
 
I saw a few places last year where the analogs for 2024 were similar to 1973 and 2010. I always wondered if that would roll into 2025 having analogs of 2011 and 1974. I have now seen a few people making those connections, but it seems like a lot of years people have called it the next 2011. It is hard to decipher between the wish-casting and the actual data.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
I saw a few places last year where the analogs for 2024 were similar to 1973 and 2010. I always wondered if that would roll into 2025 having analogs of 2011 and 1974. I have now seen a few people making those connections, but it seems like a lot of years people have called it the next 2011. It is hard to decipher between the wish-casting and the actual data.
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It's not wish casting this time
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
We were hunkered down after dark in 2011 with an EF2 about 3 miles away and scares all night, and we were the lucky ones. I don't think anyone in their right mind would wish cast that season again.
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It’s just not wishcasting, this year looks like 2011, but with a twist. A warm gulf. Other years like 1971, 1974, & 2008 are also in the general mix. Talked about this on here weeks ago 👍
 
I still have recurring nightmares from 2011. Horrendous memories from riding on a trailer with disaster assistance in T-town. People desperate for water, food, baby needs, power for med supplies. Yet one mile over the river bridge, Northport was business as usual. It blew my mind. I don’t think I could handle another 2011.
 
KatrinaRuns said:
I still have recurring nightmares from 2011. Horrendous memories from riding on a trailer with disaster assistance in T-town. People desperate for water, food, baby needs, power for med supplies. Yet one mile over the river bridge, Northport was business as usual. It blew my mind. I don’t think I could handle another 2011.
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Not a tornado outbreak, but I'm not sure I could handle a repeat of Helene either.
 
KatrinaRuns said:
I still have recurring nightmares from 2011. Horrendous memories from riding on a trailer with disaster assistance in T-town. People desperate for water, food, baby needs, power for med supplies. Yet one mile over the river bridge, Northport was business as usual. It blew my mind. I don’t think I could handle another 2011.
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There's a documentary coming to Netflix about Joplin too(which killed more people than any tornado on 4/27 did)... I was in Alabama still but I don't care to ever do that again either. Deadliest tornado in the US since 1947!

I mean Joplin isn't that far away from here... I drove through it last month and there's still obvious scars from that
 
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