Severe 2025 Severe Thread

[NWMSGuy]

Sunday Evening per EURO:

 

[Arcc]

Gonna be hard to see any really big outbreaks with the next parade of systems not allowing for massive moisture return. That said, systems such as the one at the very end of last night’s Euro AI run are extremely dangerous as we get toward April.

 

[tractor girl]

Gonna be hard to see any really big outbreaks with the next parade of systems not allowing for massive moisture return. That said, systems such as the one at the very end of last night’s Euro AI run are extremely dangerous as we get toward April.

 

[RickyD]

Any thoughts why the dew points stayed so low for the most point in S Al / central Al , during the last outbreak? I know it seemed that saved many .

It has been a long time since I have posted. I am in Hazlehurst.

 

[Arcc]

Any thoughts why the dew points stayed so low for the most point in S Al / central Al , during the last outbreak? I know it seemed that saved many .

It has been a long time since I have posted. I am in Hazlehurst.

Two things:

1. SE surface wind tends to pull dry air from the Atlantic. Most large tornado outbreaks in the south have a due south surface wind.

2. Mixing. The winds aloft mixed down drier air from above.

That said, SW flow aloft did much more to help than dew points.

 

[BufordWX]

There is a tornado threat in Illinois today. The first day 2 outlook yesterday didn’t even have a 2% area.

 

[tractor girl]

Radar indicated tornado just north of Memphis

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[BufordWX]

Confirmed tornado near Rolling Fork, MS.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[jrips27]

Some big hail in NW Alabama

 

[Belle Lechat]

154 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT.

* AT 153 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLSBORO, OR NEAR FOREST, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

 

[tennessee storm]

Quiet impressive day 6 and day 7 already per SPC outlook

 

[Brent]

Quiet impressive day 6 and day 7 already per SPC outlook

Yeah for real

 

[Arcc]

Yeah for real View attachment 172017View attachment 172018

Quick glance at the GFS says big problem for TN and North AL.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[BufordWX]

Pacific Northwest hail chase anyone?

 

[Snowfan]

Pacific Northwest hail chase anyone?
View attachment 172031

Not that often you see a hatched hail zone in western WA/OR.

 

[jrips27]

Not that often you see a hatched hail zone in western WA/OR.

First time ever, apparently!

 

[Snowfan]

 

[BufordWX]

Will be interesting to see how machine learning does 12 days out. It is really far out there, but the Euro and GFS have been showing a threat around this timeframe as well, and we are entering the most active months for severe weather.

 

[BufordWX]

Based on current indications, it looks like the next severe threat beyond this weekend will be around 4/2-4/4. The Euro and Euro-AI have been pretty consistent in showing a more amplified system swinging east, during the middle part of next week.

 

[BufordWX]

Probably going to see outlooks issued for the 4/2-4/4 period soon. Decent signal for something showing up on most models. GFS, meanwhile, is on an island with its depiction at this point.

 

[tennessee storm]

Probably going to see outlooks issued for the 4/2-4/4 period soon. Decent signal for something showing up on most models. GFS, meanwhile, is on an island with its depiction at this point.
View attachment 172049
View attachment 172050
View attachment 172051
View attachment 172052
View attachment 172053

Looks like serious trouble brewing there

 

[BufordWX]

SPC put out a day 6 risk area for Wednesday (4/2). Almost the exact same area as Sunday’s risk.

 

[BufordWX]

Only Wednesday has a risk area right now, but there does look to be a chance that some parts of the western SE could be looking at repeated rounds of severe storms through Friday or Saturday of next week. Also, there could be some significant rainfall totals for those areas as well.

Beyond that, it looks like the pattern calms down somewhat heading into the second week of April.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Only Wednesday has a risk area right now, but there does look to be a chance that some parts of the western SE could be looking at repeated rounds of severe storms through Friday or Saturday of next week. Also, there could be some significant rainfall totals for those areas as well.

Beyond that, it looks like the pattern calms down somewhat heading into the second week of April.

Lots of heavy rain totals on the EURO out through 4/12.

 

[tennessee storm]

Lots of heavy rain totals on the EURO out through 4/12.

This pattern remind me whole lot like may 2003