Shaggy
Member
Consistency and consensus are 2 very important components of the models. Those 2 things raise confidence considerably IMO.
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Brent
Member
Seeing a lot of model support now. Euro is running to see if it shows a legit threat again
I expect to see an invest before long
An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of
this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
LickWx
Member
Brent you know better than to show me that! Shame on you. Cheeky bastard!
BHS1975
Member
Nah that trough will leave it behind.
BHS1975
Member
LLC at about 15n 40w.
Taylor C
Member
1009mb to 1004mb in 144hrs is not impressive. Poor organization looks to be well understood for a good while.
lexxnchloe
Member
It looks to me 91L got closer to the coast at 12Z.
weather bubba
Member
All of the forecast models except for the GFS and the Japanese model show a tropical system of varying intensity levels in the Atlantic on Labor Day or shortly after. The GFS has a system in the southern Gulf and the Japanese model shows a run of the mill low pressure in the Atlantic. It looks like there will be more people paying attention to the tropical weather forecasts during the upcoming week.
Tornadocane
Member
The WCAR energy that the GFS has been developing on the last 18 runs is now heading offshore from South America.
Brent
Member
I'm really starting to wonder if that storm might be legit in one form. The Euro has apparently trended stronger with the vort. We'll know soon
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Taylor C
Member
This will be an incredible storm to watch.
The 12z run of the GFS gets Hinnamnor's surface pressure down to 926mb and the EURO at 944mb.
The 12z run of the GFS gets Hinnamnor's surface pressure down to 926mb and the EURO at 944mb.
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Taylor C
Member
The GFS versus 6 other models on the Gulf hurricane.
Taylor C
Member
This set of images doesn't include the NAVGEM. But looking at that model it has the storm, but not nearly the intensity as the GFS.
Clearly trending away from a storm. GFS bias finally readjusting
Shaggy
Member
Not the Atlantic but there's about to be a top shelf monster super typhoon in the wpac