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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Words can’t explain how horrible this model is .
6428f97ed1f952ffb7294ee1355782f9.gif



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I finally have a below freezing high ? curious how this trends... I mean if this is gonna rival the big outbreaks it'll be way colder than that... We will see Screenshot_20221207-231223.png
 
I’m starting to get a bit concerned this could turn out like 2021. (Which was great for some people on this board). True cold couldn’t make it east of the APPS. What is different in this scenario?


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Loganelliott99 said:
I’m starting to get a bit concerned this could turn out like 2021. (Which was great for some people on this board). True cold couldn’t make it east of the APPS. What is different in this scenario?


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This -NAO is west based as opposed to east like then. The blocking is much stronger and probably most importantly the MJO is in good position. In 2021, we were seeing the MJO go high amp in phases 4-6 which with LaNina background was really gonna flex the SER/WAR… now we’re going slowly through very low amp 8-2 which strongly favors the SER/WAR to be more muted. That’s not to say that the biggest anomalies don’t still end up west of the Apps, but there should still be plenty spilling over and we’ll be in a good set up for CAD
 
Chazwin said:
This -NAO is west based as opposed to east like then. The blocking is much stronger and probably most importantly the MJO is in good position. In 2021, we were seeing the MJO go high amp in phases 4-6 which with LaNina background was really gonna flex the SER/WAR… now we’re going slowly through very low amp 8-2 which strongly favors the SER/WAR to be more muted. That’s not to say that the biggest anomalies don’t still end up west of the Apps, but there should still be plenty spilling over and we’ll be in a good set up for CAD
Click to expand...

Thanks!


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Loganelliott99 said:
Thanks!


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Another thing to add is the fact that prior to that in 2021, the whole winter had seen virtually no cold air of Canadian origin build up Canada was constantly getting flooded with moist Pacific air… the cold snap around Christmas 2020 came solely because a very transient cross polar flow set up from Siberia. This cold air has really been building in Canada
 
Chazwin said:
Another thing to add is the fact that prior to that in 2021, the whole winter had seen virtually no cold air of Canadian origin build up Canada was constantly getting flooded with moist Pacific air… the cold snap around Christmas 2020 came solely because a very transient cross polar flow set up from Siberia. This cold air has really been building in Canada
Click to expand...

Ann okay! That makes sense. Thanks


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bigstick10 said:
LOL,,,Yeah this looks frigid

Atlanta Extended Weather Forecast
Thu
Dec 15
Cloudy with Scattered Showers

64°F
Fri
Dec 16
Cloudy

50°F
Sat
Dec 17
Sunny

53°F
Sun
Dec 18
Mostly Cloudy

52°F
Mon
Dec 19
Cloudy with Showers

45°F
Tue
Dec 20
Cloudy with Light Rain Showers

50°F
Wed
Dec 21
Cloudy with Light Rain Showers

64°F
46°F
38°F
38°F
44°F
42°F
50°F
63°F
Click to expand...
A extended forecast from a random weather site/app that goes off one model ? Yeah That’s the joke of this post
 
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