Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

[Henry2326]

12z Icon and 12z CMC gets one in. Both follow along the same general path. 12z GFS, nothing.

 

[Henry2326]

12Z EURO agrees with Icon and CMC. Interesting that GFS is out there by itself.....let's see if it comes on board tonight.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 87737

View attachment 87738

The rumblings are beginning .. hurricane season is about to get roaring

 

[Henry2326]

And......every operational model goes silent overnight.

 

[Henry2326]

Invest 92

 

[Henry2326]

12z GFS...... a few tweaks and we would be watching one on each side of FL.

 

[Brent]

12z GFS...... a few tweaks and we would be watching one on each side of FL.


View attachment 87756

If only it were September

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

And......every operational model goes silent overnight.

View attachment 87750

And just like that there all back on 12 hours later… I wouldn’t get caught up from run to run discrepancies.. we have three separate systems in the MDR that have promise and spin to them .. ICON brings a hurricane on our doorstep in just 5 days time .. don’t let the models fool you .. the tropics have a mind of their own

 

[Snowfan]

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for
gradual development over the next several days, and this system
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster
toward the west-northwest early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

I think this one will be Invest 93L soon.

 

[Tarheel1]

Precip field would likely be much farther to the West

 

[Henry2326]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gfs now brings the wave in but as just a wave then develops as it gets off the Carolina coasts .. here we go boys and girls if you blink you’re going to miss it!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well I think everyone will enjoy the 00z Gfs

 

[Tarheel1]

Well I think everyone will enjoy the 00z Gfs

Reminds me of January 2000

 

[Henry2326]

 

[SD]

12z models were something

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

Both 12z GFS and 12z Euro like that east coast ride.

 

[pcbjr]

Both 12z GFS and 12z Euro like that east coast ride.

they are both incorporating sheer, upper air currents and a path of least resistance ... now let's see what really happens ...

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12z models were something

Indeed and I don’t even really trust globals with tropical systems especially with smaller sized systems .. they just don’t see a lot that the smaller scale models pick up .. but at the same time their ensembles do well at picking low pressures out

 

[Downeastnc]

hard pass

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

hard pass

View attachment 87795

Yeah didnt want people wishing for tropical rains cause this will do more harm than good

 

[Brent]

1999 was a very rough year for the Carolinas I believe it's probably a closer analog to this year given the La Nina. 2009 was pretty much dead but an El Nino

 

[Myfrotho704_]

1999 was a very rough year for the Carolinas I believe it's probably a closer analog to this year given the La Nina. 2009 was pretty much dead but an El NinoView attachment 87798

AAM cycles, the repetitive H5 setups have been just like 1999 ever since spring

 

[Brent]

The 0z GFS has a Caribbean cruiser(an area still to come that's not in the TWO I think) that ends up approaching Mexico in fantasy land as a whopper of a hurricane lol

 

[SD]

So which L is approaching the islands right now? It looks pretty good

 

[RBR71]

So which L is approaching the islands right now? If looks pretty good

94L I think, definitely some rotation maybe just mid-levels, but yeah looking pretty stout

 

[Brent]

94L I think, definitely some rotation maybe just mid-levels, but yeah looking pretty stout

Yeah 94 looks like it's gonna be the first Fred candidate

 

[Brent]

Looks like Six/Fred will have company soon Grace is next

Already looks pretty good on satellite

 

[Henry2326]

End of 12z GFS run

 

[BeachDMD]

End of 12z GFS run


View attachment 87875

F storms and SE NC go together like peas and carrots

 

[Henry2326]

What a train....

 

[Chazwin]

What a train....

View attachment 87939

Well this definitely the pattern that we’ve been watching develop all summer. So no suprises there. No the only question is how strong are these storms able to get

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Webberweather53]

Updated IMME ensemble mean forecast that came out this morning & it's not a good look for the SE US.

 

[Webberweather53]

CFSv2 starting to get the classic phase 3 look to it in late August. Probably higher-than-normal chances something tries to form near central America, the Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Brent]

If they would stop going over Hispaniola they might have a shot

 

[pcbjr]

If they would stop going over Hispaniola they might have a shot

... and if they quit going over Hispaniola one or more of us are gonna be shot ... by the equivalent of a 30.06 out of the Atlantic ...

 

[BHS1975]

If they would stop going over Hispaniola they might have a shot

Yeap it would be way worse without that island helping us out.


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