Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[SD]

so. when nw trend

6 hrs left so I can ban myself

 

[CyclonicFury]

This storm is promising, I hope we don't screw it up

 

[smast16]

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion we've peaked and we're about to start trending away.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion we've peaked and we're about to start trending away.

Because we can't realistically go much higher than what the GFS just showed, probably

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

At noon, as per latest GFS, the consensus appeared quite spirited and positive towards our latest threat. Onward!

An hour later, the latest euro backs off the latest positive trends, and some chaps that were previously gungho then express considerable concern at our storm's prospects and now fear a dire outlook. Some consider jumping ship. Calamity!

Just now, as per latest GFS, the consensus appeared quite spirited and positive towards our latest threat. Onward!

to be continued

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Feel like this thing is gonna trend into a January 2017

 

[Broken024]

View attachment 103386

Talk to me

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS brought Fro’s 16” back! Storm uncancel!View attachment 103382

Damn, that looks like a rookie screenshot! ??
But nice hit for N Mecklenburg county!

 

[superjames1992]

Everyone says something different about the icon . I don’t know what to believe about it !

I’d it shows snow, it’s good. If it doesn’t, it sucks.

 

[jackendrickwx]

I’d it shows snow, it’s good. If it doesn’t, it sucks.

Thus is the way of the wx weenie

 

[jackendrickwx]

@Myfrotho704_ can i get a zoomed in p11 on the GEFS

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

6 hrs left so I can ban myself

If you ban yourself, can you unban yourself after? I bet you can't because being banned probably prevents you from unbanning. ?

 

[Thor]

Since the Euro is leading the way on this one I'd wait to get excited. The only way I get modeled snow like this is usually catching the model in the middle of a trend in a direction.

 

[Stephenb888]

Is there still that big dog potential storm around the 20th-21st or is that gone?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Feel like this thing is gonna trend into a January 2017

To be fair, January 2017 had a giant ridge over the Atlantic. This storm has a trough so I don't see WAA overperforming *knock on wood*

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Tarheel1 what was the storm that CJ called for 6”+ and we got a sloppy dusting? Jan 17’?

 

[jackendrickwx]

@Tarheel1 what was the storm that CJ called for 6”+ snd we got a sloppy dusting? Jan 17’?

most of them

 

[Ollie Williams]

The closest analog I have found to this storm has been March 1980. Obviously some notable differences with less of a 50/50 low, and a low coming out of SE Canada. However, the wave orientation and tilt are similar.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Gonna make a prediction and everyone is going to hate it but it’s going to be a VA/NC border hit. Gfs always has suppression bias and it’s going to come north in the models 48 hours out.

Beware the warm nose. Someone convince me this isn't coming NW at the last minute.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

To be fair, January 2017 had a giant ridge over the Atlantic. This storm has a trough so I don't see WAA overperforming *knock on wood*View attachment 103401

I sat under blue returns for 8 hours straight and got rained on. Backend dusting. Travelers rest got a big one.