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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Ollie Williams said:
I’m kind of looking forward to people starting to pull out the ICON for winter tracking.
Click to expand...
Its not a bad model, always keep it in consideration. I remember it performing well on some events last year
 
Some guy for iowa state, put on a clinic today! 4 TDS and like 300 yards total yards
 
Webberweather53 said:
Before I share the climo graph, (as I promised to @Ollie Williams & others) I've made a much deserved facelift the massive teleconnection spreadsheet on my website, made it a bit user friendly and added a few parameters to it, like the TNH Index I talked about yesterday as well as the RMM MJO and then made distinctions between the type of winter storm (ice or snow) and its severity.

I've taken a screen capture (shown below) from a piece of it around January 2000 to explain what each column means:

From left to right:
Column 1: Day # (Number of total Nov-Apr days since 1948 in sequential order).
Column 2: Winter Season Day # (Starting at 1 on Nov, and increasing up to 181 on April 30th, then going back to one on the next Nov 1, etc.)
Column 3: Year (In sequential order from 1948 to 2021)
Column 4: Month # (1 = January, 2 = February, 3 = March, etc.)
Column 5: Day (of month) (self explanatory).
Column 6: Daily Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index: (1950-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 7: Daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index: (1948-Present). (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 8: Daily Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 9: Daily Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 10: Daily Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 11: Daily Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH) Index: (1948-Present) Defined using the following daily-averaged NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 500mb geopotential height grid boxes: [[(30N-60N, 160W-120W) - 42.5N-67.5N, 105W-35W) +[(15N-32.5N, 100W-30W) - 42.5N-67.5N, 105W-35W)]/2] (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 12: Daily Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) Index: (1974-Present) Phase. Amplitude < 0.95 = "Null" phase.
Column 13: Daily Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) Index: (1974-Present) Amplitude
Column 14: NC Winter Storms Categorized by severity I've chosen arbitrarily but I think the descriptions and corresponding amounts are pretty accurate:
"Minor" (Level 1) Winter Storm: At least 1" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least a trace of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Major" (Level 2) Winter Storm: More than 4" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 0.25" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Extreme" (Level 3) Winter Storm: More than 8" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 0.50" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Historic" (Level 4) Winter Storm: More than 12" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 1" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont

Column 15: Hyperlinks to Winter Storm Maps associated with each storm. (a few are missing & haven't been analyzed yet, but that'll change soon)

Column 16: Determines which precipitation type (snow or ice) has greater severity. Ice takes precedent over snow if they're both of the same category (because generally speaking, ice tends to be more destructive than snow)

Column 17: sources for maps &/or data:
Webberweather.com
NC State Climate Office Winter Storm Database
NWS RAH Past events
xmACIS2


View attachment 95999


You can also download this spreadsheet by clicking the link below:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
Click to expand...
Soon to be added December 8 2021 “historic” ???
 
Got home today early in the afternoon. Haven't looked at models in even my lazy way for a couple days...guessing December is going to kick off in a very warm way.

My dad's side of the family is very interesting. They don't mind eating at expensive restaurants and my step uncle doesn't mind buying expensive wine. He found something where he drew the line though yesterday, we were at a place that sells bottled wine for a little over $300.

Yeah, I went to a restaurant buffet at a fine dining restaurant yesterday. I didn't have turkey as I had a choice. I had salmon and a small piece of New York roast for my meat. I thought the salmon was pretty good, but I like the way my dad does salmon better haha.
 
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