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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

BirdManDoomW said:
Heys guys wanted to update some forecast periods I’ve been watching, my first guess map has been shunted even further east and is delayed through early next week if moisture even makes it inland totals very light if any but most near zero. Going forward, deeper into Feb and March, I believe winter is over unless your in the mtns there could be a period of wet snow. Thank you
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I see an endless parade of analfronts on the GEFS members. I agree, for most of us, winter weather is done. Mountains and TN should do well, though. Not just wet snow.
 
It doesn't look bitterly cold on the long range of any models. But the pattern isn't bad. There's a general tendency for a trough in the east or nearby. And there's plenty of cold to be tapped up in Canada. Shuffle a few things around and it could get cold pretty quick.

If we start seeing cold evacuate to the other side of the globe or see a huge SER signal or see zonal flow become commonplace, then it might be time to pack it in, outside of a rogue March storm.

It doesn't look bitterly cold but it doesn't look hostile either.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Negativity about the upcoming pattern is funny lol, La nina February’s torch most of the time, the fact that we’re sniffing a western ridge/+PNA in a second year nina feb is impressive, and something we just don’t often see
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The problem is that this board is split 50/50 on wanting cold and snow and wanting warmth. You could take a pill and I’d bet most in NC/TN want cold and Al/Ga want warmth. At the end of the day the weenie saying of if it’s not going to snow let’s torch is accurate.
 
NoSnowATL said:
The problem is that this board is split 50/50 on wanting cold and snow and wanting warmth. You could take a pill and I’d bet most in NC/TN want cold and Al/Ga want warmth. At the end of the day the weenie saying of if it’s not going to snow let’s torch is accurate.
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So everyone will be happy when it snows here and rains in Atlanta
 
NoSnowATL said:
The problem is that this board is split 50/50 on wanting cold and snow and wanting warmth. You could take a pill and I’d bet most in NC/TN want cold and Al/Ga want warmth. At the end of the day the weenie saying of if it’s not going to snow let’s torch is accurate.
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I could be wrong but I think it's delayed but not denied on the SER and warmth. Everything seems to be behaving as expected but is shifted back roughly 15 days or so. So we likely warm and SER after 2/20 into early/mid March then have to worry about the return of the cold 2nd half of March into early April
 
Rain Cold said:
It doesn't look bitterly cold on the long range of any models. But the pattern isn't bad. There's a general tendency for a trough in the east or nearby. And there's plenty of cold to be tapped up in Canada. Shuffle a few things around and it could get cold pretty quick.

If we start seeing cold evacuate to the other side of the globe or see a huge SER signal or see zonal flow become commonplace, then it might be time to pack it in, outside of a rogue March storm.

It doesn't look bitterly cold but it doesn't look hostile either.
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Yeah, I just don't see snowstorm when I look at the models right now. I see cool and dry. I'm appreciative it's not torching in February and all, but that's not really what I'm hoping for. But who knows what happens in a week.
 
NoSnowATL said:
The problem is that this board is split 50/50 on wanting cold and snow and wanting warmth. You could take a pill and I’d bet most in NC/TN want cold and Al/Ga want warmth. At the end of the day the weenie saying of if it’s not going to snow let’s torch is accurate.
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All i see is 40's and 50s. What use is that? Bring on the 70's baby!!!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Negativity about the upcoming pattern is funny lol, La nina February’s torch most of the time, the fact that we’re sniffing a western ridge/+PNA in a second year nina feb is impressive, and something we just don’t often see
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Actually, at Charlotte and the SE in general, 2nd year La Niña Febs haven’t torched most of the time:

2nd year La Niña Feb at Charlotte:

1894 45.1 (NN)

1910 41.2 (BN)

1917 42.9 (NN)

1956 47.9 (AN)

1972 40.3 (BN)

1975 45.0 (NN)

1985 43.2 (NN)

2000 46.5 (NN)

2009 44.5 (NN)

2012 46.9 (NN)

2018 54.5 (MAN/only torch of the 11 2nd year Niñas)



*1879-2021 average Feb 44.3

*11 2nd year Niña Feb avg 45.3 or only 1 warmer than 1879-2021 average


At Charlotte, I consider a torch Feb to be 49+. There have been 21 of these since 1880. The vast majority (76% or 16) of torch Febs were either neutral ENSO or 1st year La Niña. Only 1 was 2nd year La Niña.


Torch Febs (49+): 21 of them

1880 1st year Niña

1882 N

1883 N

1884 N

1887 1st year Niña

1890 1st year Niña

1891 N

1925 1st year Niña

1927 N

1930 1st year Niño

1932 N

1938 N

1939 1st year Niña

1949 N

1957 N

1976 3rd year Niña

1990 N

1998 1st year Niño

2017 1st year Niña/N

2018 2nd year Niña

2019 1st year Niño
 
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