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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

BullCityWx said:
Seeing the mental gymnastics that some of yall perform to convince yourself that every storm is destined to fail is hilarious.

Buncha great value widremanns.
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I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
 
smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
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Agreement from me. We technically torture ourselves when it comes to Wintry weather outside 2 days chasing the models. Tropical, severe, and other types of common weather are much less stressful.
 
Texas gets model consistency on every run for a week and we get cutters and shredders, strong cad weak cad, maybe under modeled cad, amped, strung out. It’s so annoying.


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smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
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Indeed, essentially the models due to their inability to perfectly model the atmosphere often early on have solutions that look good but turn out to merely be fiction. We wouldn’t have a way to know that these solutions were fiction from the start though we could and do guess based on biases/their record. Of course, it can go the opposite way, too.

If there were an absolutely perfect model, we’d always know well in advance and there’d be no reason to have forecasting discussions since we’d already know what’s to come. In that way, it would be kind of boring.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, essentially the models due to their inability to perfectly model the atmosphere often early on have solutions that look good but turn out to merely be fiction. We wouldn’t have a way to know that these solutions were fiction from the start though we could guess based on biases/their record. Of course, it can go the opposite way, too.

If there were an absolutely perfect model, we’d always know well in advance and there’d be no reason to have forecasting discussions since we’d already know what’s to come. In that way, it would be kind of boring.
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Admittedly, I would prefer the latter. Good for humanity and safety/planning as a whole too.
 
Shawn said:
Admittedly, I would prefer the latter. Good for humanity and safety/planning as a whole too.
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Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
 
GaWx said:
Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
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Machine learning is going to be a big deal in the coming years, weather forecasting wise.
 
GaWx said:
Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
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But if the Machines were perfect, then they'd find us flawed...

and we know how that turns out...
 
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