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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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SD said:
Where did the NAO go? What does the eps look like after the train carrying burning dumpsters crashes? Does it at least try to retrograde the goa crap and get a PNA?
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The trop PV is consolidated and in a terrible spot, I assume this SSWE is going to help that. I still think we get a workable pattern mid-Jan on but we know how mod/strong nina's are in February. How can we avoid that.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-0323200.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0323200.png
 
For this afternoon..... Tha tablesetter 18CC7EE8-FCE6-46D8-BD65-C06771574852.png70BB1EB8-F7AA-4766-953F-B75E65AAB6C0.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Serious question: Did we always used to hold out for a SSWE every year? This seems like a fairly recent unicorn to me, but I may be misrembering.
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NoSnowATL said:
My guess is that it never does and we suck again.
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No...we didn’t and yes we will suck again. SMH!


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KyloG said:
The trop PV is consolidated and in a terrible spot, I assume this SSWE is going to help that. I still think we get a workable pattern mid-Jan on but we know how mod/strong nina's are in February. How can we avoid that.

View attachment 60549View attachment 60550
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Geez. Getting tropical convection going would be ideal right now it's mainly in the IO which is just going to continue to produce a Nina look.
 
Does anyone else notice that no matter what kind of ENSO conditions or alignment of various indexes we have, year after year, our predominant pattern seems to feature troughs dropping into the southwest, storms that cut, and a general ridging in the east (or at best, near normal heights)? El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, -EPO, +EPO, -NAO, +NAO, -QBO, +QBO, Super cold stratosphere, SSW, you name it. Maybe something else is exerting upon the pattern and we just don't understand it yet. I'm kind of leaning that way.
 
Rain Cold said:
Does anyone else notice that no matter what kind of ENSO conditions or alignment of various indexes we have, year after year, our predominant pattern seems to feature troughs dropping into the southwest, storms that cut, and a general ridging in the east (or at best, near normal heights)? El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, -EPO, +EPO, -NAO, +NAO, -QBO, +QBO, Super cold stratosphere, SSW, you name it. Maybe something else is exerting upon the pattern and we just don't understand it yet. I'm kind of leaning that way.
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Indian ocean, main tropical forcing centered in that region. Down stream effect is a big shitburger for the SE US.
 
Rain Cold said:
That may be it. If that ever changes, we'll find out.
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5 straight AN winters in a row. Yeah, climate maybe getting warmer but it’s been BN in other parts of the country. With modeled temps the next 2 weeks it looks like we will be well on our way to a 6th AN winter at the halfway point. Just crazy.

I can’t recall a period where we had 6 AN winters in a row. Maybe early 90’s.

268F3921-FBC1-4678-96F7-84196FBFE926.png6765B74C-244E-4E90-BAAC-A71F7E7439B7.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Serious question: Did we always used to hold out for a SSWE every year? This seems like a fairly recent unicorn to me, but I may be misrembering.
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Back in the 60s, Clyde McClean at WBTV called it a dip in the jet stream. He illustrated this by going to the map, loading a felt marker with black ink and drawing a big circled H in the Midwest with an arrow on the right side of the H starting in Canada and ending in the southeast
 
Friday?, after my 6-14” on Tue/Wed! Analfrontal magic! 2C479F42-29FB-4B86-8AFA-D241DC552B36.png
 
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tramadoc said:
Can’t leave out eastern NC. Shaggy, metwannabe, downeastnc, me... some others I’m sure.
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You also can’t leave out SE GA. There’s plenty of regular posters from there. Let’s see: there’s myself, and uh....umm...let me think...............
never mind.
 
SD said:
Indian ocean, main tropical forcing centered in that region. Down stream effect is a big shitburger for the SE US.
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I think you have the right idea based on what I’ve learned directly from a very knowledgeable and smart pro met. The only slight modification I’d make would be to substitute “Maritime Continent” for Indian Ocean. So, that means a little east of the Indian Ocean or in the far W Pacific/Indonesia, where warm MJO phases 4 and 5 reside. The theory, backed by actual stats I was able to produce by simply counting the days in each phase each winter, is that the extra strong warmth in the Maritime Continent waters does two things:

- it favors a higher than normal % of days in MJO phases 4 and 5
- Even when not officially in phases 4 and 5, extra convection is still often produced in the Maritime Continent by the extra warmth thus making it sometimes still act like phases 4 and 5 (regardless of ENSO).
 
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NoSnowATL said:
Maybe we can use some dry ice to cool the Indian Ocean. That guy in Florida might have been onto something.
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The idea, inspired by Mack’s cruise, was for SouthernWx to offer free cruises (along with free dry ice) to the region around Indonesia. They would be working cruises. The cruise recipients could still be able to relax and have a free vacation, but they would also be required each day to dump a certain amount of dry ice overboard.
 
GaWx said:
The idea, inspired by Mack’s cruise, was for SouthernWx to offer free cruises (along with free dry ice) to the region around Indonesia. They would be working cruises. The cruise recipients could still relax and have a free vacation, but they would also be required each day to dump a certain amount of dry ice overboard
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Dump some dry ice across the SE coast/western Atlantic as well
 
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