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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Myfrotho704_ said:
I was just talking about this with someone on twitter but it was a strange setup, had a outflow boundary and acted like a MCS, setup I’ll never forget
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I read about it last night. Said cold air had just settled in the day before? and precip exploded on the “cool” side just on the east side of the mountains. Lee side trough? I think that was a low probability event but it was a good one. Roads were wet but trees and grassy areas were caked!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I read about it last night. Said cold air had just settled in the day before? and precip exploded on the “cool” side just on the east side of the mountains. Lee side trough? I think that was a low probability event but it was a good one. Roads were wet but trees and grassy areas were caked!
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Yep, develop like how our summertime storms do in the summer off the mountains and drifted SE, that event also had 100-500 jkg of cape and very steep low level lapses, also had a PV lobe near the GLs, those rates were insane at times, I’d trade a 5 inch regular winter storm for a 3inch convective snow setup like the one from 2013 any day
 
Violating every rule I set for myself ... but here goes ... IMBY ... 78º and a nice NW breeze ... feels a lot cooler than that and is wonderful ... Now back to y'all's BY ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Violating every rule I set for myself ... but here goes ... IMBY ... 78º and a nice NW breeze ... feels a lot cooler than that and is wonderful ... Now back to y'all's BY ... ;)
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Very nice, at least you don’t have to worry about chasing fantasy snow.


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NoSnowATL said:
That’s about right for everyone outside NC this year.


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Yup, but the point was, it's right every year from down here ... no gripes, just a friendly observation ... my favorites are the Wake phantom chases every run, BTW ...
 
looks Like we are as good at apocalyptic flooding, as we are at snow!! B68971CF-55EE-4D82-92B1-F1112993FB4A.png
 
Anyone else having an issue with the Meteostar website showing data that's a day old? It's been happening to me for a week or two now.
 
I've really learned that with a Nino you're needle threading, but isn't that the case with any deal in the SE?

Can't have a super strong Nino, strong Nino's usually don't work, weak to moderate ones can, if you get ones that are very weak you can be subjected to other factors that might end up hurting, and the very latter has been what's happened this year.

My preference would probably be warm neutral though? I think 13/14 was that.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've really learned that with a Nino you're needle threading, but isn't that the case with any deal in the SE?

Can't have a super strong Nino, strong Nino's usually don't work, weak to moderate ones can, if you get ones that are very weak you can be subjected to other factors that might end up hurting, and the very latter has been what's happened this year.

My preference would probably be warm neutral though? I think 13/14 was that.
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1. 13-14 was cold neutral per this:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2. Officially per ONI, we still don’t know if 18-19 will have 5 trimonthlies in a row to reach El Niño status in retrospect. I’m pretty sure it will get to 4 in a row with DJF but it will need JFM to get to 5 in a row. With Jan having faded so much, JFM may end up lower than +0.5. It depends on the next 6 weeks or so. I realize people will say “what difference does it make?”, but it is what it is officially. So, if this doesn’t make it as El Niño, then I’d have to retract my statements about this winter quite possibly making it to the warmest of 48 on record at ATL and this by a large margin being the warmest El Niño Feb on record. Part of me would like to see that happen as it would be pretty funny and also it may sort of explain why the typical temp pattern of colder SE US than northern tier didn’t happen. Neutral positive winters, notwithstanding 1935-6, have usually not been cold in the SE.
 
GaWx said:
1. 13-14 was cold neutral per this:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2. Officially per ONI, we still don’t know if 18-19 will have 5 trimonthlies in a row to reach El Niño status in retrospect. I’m pretty sure it will get to 4 in a row with DJF but it will need JFM to get to 5 in a row. With Jan having faded so much, JFM may end up lower than +0.5. It depends on the next 6 weeks or so. I realize people will say “what difference does it make?”, but it is what it is officially. So, if this doesn’t make it as El Niño, then I’d have to retract my statements about this winter quite possibly making it to the warmest of 48 on record at ATL and this by a large margin being the warmest El Niño Feb on record. Part of me would like to see that happen as it would be pretty funny and also it may sort of explain why the typical temp pattern of colder SE US than northern tier didn’t happen. Neutral positive winters, notwithstanding 1935-6, have usually not been cold in the SE.
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Okay thank you I honestly didn't remember outside of it being "neutral", although I'm sure I've seen it before more than a few times. I just remember the craziness.
 
pcbjr said:
So, I see posts are deleted; no notice; no PM? And they had "Likes". Bad ...
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Are the Hardee Boys of WWE now in charge here?

Your Will Robinson post was funny as all get out even though it was banter. But I think you should have been notified since it was deleted rather than moved. My posts that have been moved to banter were without being notified, which is fine. But I think being deleted is different.

I just don't want Phil to be treated differently because someone may have a personal vendetta. He's too important a member to stop posting and would be missed greatly. I know Brick has complained a lot about posts being moved, but at least they weren't deleted (I'm not siding with him).

I know these two may get moved to banter lol. That's ok but please don't delete.
 
After this "winter" killing every last one of our unicorns, I'm done with this getting hopes up. From now on, every winter is a no snow winter until it proves otherwise. After so much hope for this winter only to get blanked, I'm going into every year expecting NOTHING but the wicked witch herself
 
Tropical T’s really needs to get its sh** together. I can’t even look to see how much snow I’m not getting wtf..
 
Can someone drop a whole lot of ice in the SW N Atlantic, pretty please? If you do, maybe I'll pay for a SW Atlantic cruise for you, which would make it easier to drop the ice. If you're lucky, you can go on the same cruise as @Tarheel1 and talk wx the entire trip. @Jimmy Hypocracy or anyone else, does this deal interest you? We've got to cooldown the Atlantic and also finally get Mack on his boat to get winter back. Ever since Mack's cruise was postponed because things looked promising for late Jan, things have gone and stayed downhill.
 
I won't even post this in the pattern thread:

0Z Euro: nothing exciting as expected other than for parts of W NC in the CAD region that might get close to 32 in 3 days although mainly a nasty cold rain is expected even in a lot of the CAD regions. ATL will be just cold rain. Good for zzzz.... though. Night night.
 
This will make some happy...

FV3 no longer planned to be operational by March 20.

EMC updated the timeline from March 20 to TBD. They won’t be starting the 30 day IT period any time soon either, it appears.
38128f150754010b78afb62c48810667.jpg



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Jon said:
This will make some happy...

FV3 no longer planned to be operational by March 20.

EMC updated the timeline from March 20 to TBD. They won’t be starting the 30 day IT period any time soon either, it appears.
38128f150754010b78afb62c48810667.jpg

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Fantastic news! I’m so excited that I may not be able to sleep tonight. Maybe Southernwx’s petition really made a difference??
 
Just an FYI on the deleting vs moving thing....there is no vendetta against anyone on this board. Posts from a wide variety of posters get moved and deleted (more deleting that moved) simply because they’re banter in the main thread, including mine. Yes, some get missed. It’s not a personal attack on anyone. And you probably don’t know this, but moving posts is a multi-step process that not very easy. Please consider this before posting banter and then getting upset if/when it gets moved or deleted. Nobody is trying to make anyone upset or show favoritism. I didn’t move/delete anything yesterday evening, but I wanted to say that, because we aren’t trying to upset anyone by attempting to keep the threads kind of clean.
 
I hope this don't sound to dumb...but will somebody explain to me in not to difficult term what is the South East Ridge? what i am gather from people talking it stop the cold air from coming south or something to that affect. Also how does it get broke down? Thanks
 
shoalswxlady said:
I hope this don't sound to dumb...but will somebody explain to me in not to difficult term what is the South East Ridge? what i am gather from people talking it stop the cold air from coming south or something to that affect. Also how does it get broke down? Thanks
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It's a semi-permanent area of high pressure that's found way above our heads in the middle-upper part of the troposphere (over 10,000-15,000 feet above the ground).
 
GaWx said:
But why is it close to permanent this winter?
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Hadley Cell expansion attributable in part to global warming which leads to poleward subtropical highs, plus the fact that we've had dateline forcing this month that's actually favorable for a SER in February (esp when it occurs in conjunction with a sudden stratospheric warming event) explains a large part of the SER's persistence of late.
 
Jimmy, get your gallons of milk and loaves of bread!!! Tuesday night event is the one we’ve been waiting for!! ☃️☃️☃️
 
WOW! GFS all in on ice storm!!????CD9E0BF8-B251-411F-B900-23711B84C161.png
 
There is 0, ZERO chance of a front end thump of anything in SC, unless rain counts?
 
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