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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Everybody still love analfrontal snowstorms!? They always over perform! :)
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Can people quit saying that winter isnt over? This winter has been a complete dumpster fire, and the models are showing heat coming. It's time to put this pathetic overhyped winter to rest. What a waste of time.
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Technically it not over and yes it warm up for 1-2 weeks but we still have 1-2 more chances. So gear up for disappointment again in a few weeks.


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Let’s start a slam dunk thread for the 12 storm on GFSv3!? What could go wrong?? Let Brick start it
 
Hype is the key word here... in our society, it seems everything has to be hyped to the max, everything... think about it. Weather(severe and winter), politics, news, sports (greatest team of all time etc) Maybe it’s because we have so many things competing for our tiny attention spans, idk
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Second time FFC has busted and had the city of Atlanta cancelled for rain. They need to be held accountable this is a joke. Schools out and nobody went to work for light rain.
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To be fair most all NWS/Mets busted on this and good reason too tricky forecast where you only can go off of ever evolving model messes and then real time observation the day before and by then you've already had to pull trigger on something. We all know they would've been hammered look at last December in GA models/mets busted on the opposite side underdone totals and such people joked how off they were most didn't get their pitchforks because it did snow and were happy.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Second time FFC has busted and had the city of Atlanta cancelled for rain. They need to be held accountable this is a joke. Schools out and nobody went to work for light rain.
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We had news cameras out in front of my kids school last December so they were trying to avoid that scenario again. We had over an inch before the buses even ran but in their stubbornness they held school. A couple of hours later we got a text for early release. Twenty minutes after that they announced they had moved up the early release. Twenty minutes later they announced the buses couldn't get out and that everyone would have to fend for themselves. It doesn't look good to call it for a rainstorm but it looks a helluva lot better than getting kids trapped at school
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Second time FFC has busted and had the city of Atlanta cancelled for rain. They need to be held accountable this is a joke. Schools out and nobody went to work for light rain.
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I don't think it's fair to throw the NWS under the bus for this event, I can understand last month's event because the writing was definitely on the wall a couple days out that nothing was likely going to happen, but this one was much more trickier and complicated with the uncertainty. Actually, the CAA behind the front was moving at a brisk rate then around 6am or so it just hit a brick wall and it's slowly crawling south and east now.
https://www.weatherbug.com/maps/?layerId=Contour.Observed.Temperature&center=33.4976,-86.8021,7
 
There job is to get the forecast correct, yet they are wrong literally almost every time in GA. They need to be held accountable for their failures.

2014: Snow jam, they said it was not gonna impact the city that bad. SMH
2016: Forecasted 4 inches for the city, ended up with inches of rain. ZERO frozen precip. SMH
2017: Forecast an inch for the city and maybe no accumulations due to temps. City gets about 5 inches and just NW record snowfall. SMH
2018: Forecast an inch an shutdown the city. City gets rain, not even close for snow.

This is inexcusable.
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
Second time FFC has busted and had the city of Atlanta cancelled for rain. They need to be held accountable this is a joke. Schools out and nobody went to work for light rain.
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I agree, here in AL we issued a state of emergency, closed all the schools etc. With events like these the hype machine should be muted. Wait and see what happens then respond. Not like this event was going to be a matter of life and death. I could see issuing a state of emergency if they’re predicting 12” of snow and single digits but this is a joke. Leads to people ignore true threats because of the lack of confidence. Happens with severe weather here too.
 
RobertRath said:
I agree, here in AL we issued a state of emergency, closed all the schools etc. With events like these the hype machine should be muted. Wait and see what happens then respond. Not like this event was going to be a matter of life and death. I could see issuing a state of emergency if they’re predicting 12” of snow and single digits but this is a joke. Leads to people ignoring true threats because of the lack of confidence. Happens with severe weather here too.
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Wait and see what happens? Like they did in 2014 and by the time school let out it was too late? Come on man.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
There job is to get the forecast correct, yet they are wrong literally almost every time in GA. They need to be held accountable for their failures.

2014: Snow jam, they said it was not gonna impact the city that bad. SMH
2016: Forecasted 4 inches for the city, ended up with inches of rain. ZERO frozen precip. SMH
2017: Forecast and inch for the city and maybe no accumulations due to temps. City gets about 5 inches and just NW record snowfall. SMH
2018: Forecast an inch an shutdown the city. City gets rain, not even close for snow.

This is inexcusable.
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Well truth is many of us on here watching weather models and some of people on here actually having Mets experience would've busted on several of these events in the past if we had to make the calls.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Second time FFC has busted and had the city of Atlanta cancelled for rain. They need to be held accountable this is a joke. Schools out and nobody went to work for light rain.
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Come on now; sour grapes portend ignorance. As Delta said, this was an impossibly difficult forecast that had two in opposite outcomes - either 2+ inches or a dusting to nothing. I am positive they were under pressure to err cautiously considering past events and Super Bowl week insanity. Don’t forget that the mets just worked a month without getting paid. Remember that this is all fun and games until things go south and you are stuck on the side of the road, miles from home.
 
Local mets are really going to get hammered for this. I will always side with them, but I have no idea why people tried to go aggressive with this system. 2-3 inches for Birmingham? 2-2.5 for Huntsville? I mean sure, some short range models were kinda showing that but jeez, why go with the over in a system like this? I get no one wanted Atlanta 2014 to happen or Dec 2017 to happen again but still...

Being a meteorologist in the South is a tough gig..
 
Snowflowxxl said:
It's simple. You wait till the morning of around 5am to make the call. By then the radar and model trends should pretty much tell you all you need to know. If still too close, then go ahead and shut it down. This morning it was very apparent by 5am that this wasnt gonna work out for many.

Ok i'm done .
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I think the issue here is the NWS relying too heavily on global models. They are useful for picking up on general storm threats but not precise enough inside 60 hours. Our local NWS has been burned many times by relying on the GFS and Euro. A lot of forecast busts are, imo, simply because they don’t seem to put much weight in the RGEM/3km NAM which are the two best models out there inside 48 hours and it’s not even close.

Also synoptically this was a cold chasing the moisture setup. From soundings it was clear that the 3km and RGEM were showing the boundary layer staying too warm and by the time those layers cooled enough for snow the upper levels were drying out.
 
Only 10 days away!

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Robert West said:
Local mets are really going to get hammered for this. I will always side with them, but I have no idea why people tried to go aggressive with this system. 2-3 inches for Birmingham? 2-2.5 for Huntsville? I mean sure, some short range models were kinda showing that but jeez, why go with the over in a system like this? I get no one wanted Atlanta 2014 to happen or Dec 2017 to happen again but still...

Being a meteorologist in the South is a tough gig..
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Would have went with one inch at the very most, this setup didn't argue for anything more than that and idk why so many mets went all in w/ WSWs and 2-4" because this clearly didn't support it. Would have been a completely different story if a legitimate wave of low pressure developed on the front and slung moisture back into the cold air, increasing the intensity & duration as well as areal coverage of the snow but that obviously wasn't going to happen.
 
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