Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

[$alt]

Welp, it's looking like after this dumb cold air chasing moisture crap gets through. That may be our last chance for a while. Good ole cold and dry settles in. This is getting old... Mother Nature looks lost out there and these models are just as lost looking like a freakin seismograph with all the ups and downs they keep fooling us with.

I had really hoped the initial weekend system was going to do the whole NW turn, and it's getting closer, but I'm not too confident we will see much around our area. I bet if we did, it'd be rain the way things look anyways.

The frontal passage.. we fight with the apps to get the cold air in here.. cold chasing moisture is never a good thing. I had hoped the FV3 and Canadian were starting to see something nice last night at 00z for us. Of course, that has reversed to a Euro like solution now.

 

[Mitch West]

Yeh we don't want any snow anyways.

 

[NoSnowATL]

.1 is better than .0. I would guess that equals to a 5 min flurries attack.


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[$alt]

You have to squint but it looks doable? ??‍View attachment 12956

You know what that image screams to me past the apps? No moisture in the snow growth region... lol moisture just doesn't seem deep enough to be much of anything and dries up the further East it goes.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

90% this 29-30 event dries up on the southern end and it becomes just a run of the mill arctic frontal passage

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 12957
Yeh we don't want any snow anyways.

Pan that west a little bit.

 

[SD]

How’s the snow front going?

About as good as the mega torch i suppose

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Well. Barring a miraculous turn around, Georgia and the Carolinas will be looking into March!

Fixed

 

[$alt]

90% this 29-30 event dries up on the southern end and it becomes just a run of the mill arctic frontal passage

What is starting to worry me for those to our West, that the Euro (that continues to dry it up quickly) is the more correct solution.. and it's just not enough moisture to saturate and even precipitate.

 

[Mitch West]

I had really hoped the initial weekend system was going to do the whole NW turn, and it's getting closer, but I'm not too confident we will see much around our area. I bet if we did, it'd be rain the way things look anyways.

The frontal passage.. we fight with the apps to get the cold air in here.. cold chasing moisture is never a good thing. I had hoped the FV3 and Canadian were starting to see something nice last night at 00z for us. Of course, that has reversed to a Euro like solution now.

Yeh, you know as well as I do that we need literally all the help we can get here. Feb 12 will mark the 5 year mark. We’ve went longer, but this stretch has seemed the longest in my 27 years of living. Last year was awful as far as missing in all directions. The frontal passage, we saw what mid Jan of last year gave us. Most short range models gave us a inch, we couldn’t even muster that up. Just beginning to get frustrating.

 

[Kylo]

You have to squint but it looks doable? ??‍View attachment 12956

This is just sad. What has this winter done to us.

 

[$alt]

Yeh, you know as well as I do that we need literally all the help we can get here. Feb 12 will mark the 5 year mark. We’ve went longer, but this stretch has seemed the longest in my 27 years of living. Last year was awful as far as missing in all directions. The frontal passage, we saw what mid Jan of last year gave us. Most short range models gave us a inch, we couldn’t even muster that up. Just beginning to get frustrating.

A friend and I did a test yesterday for the rain event that came through. I blended the 12z models and the 19z HRRR together and came up with 1.325 inches of rain in CAE.

Here are the numbers I marked down:

CAE.
12z GFS: 1.4
12z Euro/EPS 1.0
12z NAM: 0.5
19z HRRR: 2.4
MEAN: 1.325

OFFICIAL: 1.1

As you can see, the Euro did the best job, once again. The short range HRRR was absolutley atrocious. Good to know for future events...
Edit: I would like to note that NWS CAE had forecasted 1.1 in their official forecast on last check around the time I grabbed all the numbers.

 

[Mitch West]

A friend and I did a test yesterday for the rain event that came through. I blended the 12z models and the 19z HRRR together and came up with 1.325 inches of rain in CAE.

Here are the numbers I marked down:

CAE.
12z GFS: 1.4
12z Euro/EPS 1.0
12z NAM: 0.5
19z HRRR: 2.4
MEAN: 1.325

OFFICIAL: 1.1

As you can see, the Euro did the best job, once again. The short range HRRR was absolutley atrocious. Good to know for future events...

Thank you. Picked up 1.18 at my location.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Ha I just looked at the 12z GFS for yesterday out of curiosity and it said 1.5-1.75 for the rain event I think? (don't really want to pull the exact but I can) Actually had 1.65".

Edit: I was off by a color. Totals predicted were 1.4-1.5 in county. What I got was 1.65", the official station had 1.84".

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 12957
Yeh we don't want any snow anyways.

Way too high around here. If there’s any moisture at all, it will be rain, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflakes for the last 5-10 minutes.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Way too high around here. If there’s any moisture at all, it will be rain, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflakes for the last 5-10 minutes.

somebody’s feeling optimistic this afternoon! I’ll be very surprised if this thing doesn’t dry out for the entire board

 

[Rain Cold]

somebody’s feeling optimistic this afternoon! I’ll be very surprised if this thing doesn’t dry out for the entire board

Probably will.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We need to get Sarah signed up for an account ?

 

[Snowluvr]

Big flakes fell in marietta about 10 this morning!!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

James Spann hinting at a possibility of significant snow next week. But what is the definition of significant snow ? Is an inch or two significant ?