What do you think about the 2018 season? TSR: 15/7/3
If they predicted 11, 4, and 2 last year, this is way up from then. Since it's still early, I'll do two cases of predictions. Something tells me though that we're going to see high amounts of storms this year since last year seemed to be a nasty year. Hope I'm wrong though and it's a weak year.Here’s the latest prediction from CSU: 14/7/3
Link:https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/04/2018-04.pdf
It may be coincidental, but they nailed the ACE area for last year's May update. However, their numbers were way off with the ACE being a record breaker. If they get it again, it may not be so bad if we get an El-Nino.JB/WxBell April hurricane season update:
https://www.weatherbell.com/2018-hurricane-season-april-update
"As far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to the eastern Atlantic In close development is going to be an interesting challenge this year. Shorter tracked storms pose a big challenge as the huge mature ones are easier to gauge in most cases."
For JB/WxBell, this is a rather tame forecast for the US. It isn't exactly inactive, but it is still nice to see a not as threatening forecast for two reasons: I don't want a high impact season (I never do but last season's disastrous season just reemphasizes this) and it is refreshing to see WxBell not be so threatening regarding US impact potential for a change.
I'm hoping for El Niño.
Only 1 tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles? That's sounds weird and their numbers being 9 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major seem too low. They are the only organization that's calling for a well below normal season. Not sure how they have done the past 20 years or so compared to the others.Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which has a pretty good record, has just issued a new forecast for 2018. It is one of the quietest late May/early June forecasts they've had since they started doing these for 1999. It is comparable to the pretty quiet forecasts made for 2000, 2002, and 2015. It is quieter than 2009. This latest forecast can be seen by clicking on the top link here:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com
The latest numbers for all of them can be found in the 2018 hurricane season wiki page.NOAA upped their forcast hurricanes to 10-16 total storms, right about the time Alberto was starting to form. Can’t remember the hurricanes 5-9, 3 majors?
Only 1 tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles? That's sounds weird and their numbers being 9 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major seem too low. They are the only organization that's calling for a well below normal season. Not sure how they have done the past 20 years or so compared to the others.
The latest numbers for all of them can be found in the 2018 hurricane season wiki page.
It's in the document forecast. I clicked on the link you posted, then clicked the 2018 atlantic seasonal forecast above the pacific one. I looked through the document and noticed that on the bottom of page 2.Where are you seeing anything about only one TS near the Lesser Antilles?
I was thinking the same thing when I put it in. I think they couldn't make up their mind between an active season and an inactive one.I hope the TSR forecast will be added to the wiki because they certainly deserve it based on their good overall record of their near 20 years of forecasts. I guess any member can add to the wiki?
Also, is the NOAA forecast really a forecast?
- NOAA (10-16 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major)
Their ranges are very wide! MH 1-4? That goes from quiet to active! At least TSR, CSU, and TWC put out a specific forecast.