OK, once I got to my laptop, I was able to see the rest of the TSR pages including the
Lesser Antilles landfall forecast of only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:
- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So,
1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So,
1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this
May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:
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