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Misc 2017 Banter/venting thread

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That mid January blaze up in temps, going poof like our last 2,3,4,5,6 storms
 
Tarheel1 said:
That mid January blaze up in temps, going poof like our last 2,3,4,5,6 storms
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Hah that's been discussed already. It looks like it does it but it's really just loading up again. I do think the thaw will happen though...and the downpour of precip will happen right on cure.
 
97b9b7b4f2135d4d129543f959823916.jpg

HAHA!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
Frankly, agree with you 100%. Being the most guilty convict of them all, I'll offer this as a plea for mercy ... there is a great deal of good info and learning here, but right now we're staring at a NINA and one (perhaps) last shot for 10 or so months. So pardon the misplaced banter, but you are indeed correct!
Best,
Phil
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Yeah, I fully agree with you too. This place has undoubtedly (along with the old forum of TW days) given me the most knowledge of weather related items. I’ve come a long way when it comes to learning. I don’t mean to come off as a stickler or mean or something, just giving my .02! Thanks for your reply!
 
metwannabe said:
Well Webb's post is thorough and hard to deny and I almost jumped (again) but I read the Rah NWS and believe I'll hold off just yet... still too much to figure out for us, especially the Central/Eastern Carolina's

As seems to have been the case the past few weeks, the
models can`t seem to agree on how this system will evolve and what
the resulting weather over Central NC will be. Even small variations
in the amplitude and southern extent of the aforementioned wave
could result in very different weather forecast for the area. The EC
has been wetter over NC but has been more consistent from run-to-
run. On the other hand, the GFS has been drier, but has trended
toward the EC with the latest (12Z) run. The feature in question at
the surface is the low that develops over the Atlantic. How strong
it is and it`s proximity to the east coast of the US will determine
if/what weather we will see here. Again, the EC solution has the low
much closer to the NC coast while the GFS is farther out over the
Atlantic. Given such large differences the precipitation forecast
for this period is low confidence and high uncertainty. Have kept
the forecast dry, with precipitation chances below slight for now,
but would not be surprised to see an introduction of some wintry
precip in the southeast in the coming days if current trends
continue.
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I tend to feel like a worm on a hook being tossed in a bass pond with Webb's recent posts, only to get reeled back in by other posts to the safety of the john boat, and then Webb casts me back in the pond again; but God bless him - Webb is only telling us where the fish really are ... and for that, I for one am most appreciative ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Larry - That pretty well mirrors my thoughts (except my dadgum Chickasaw plum bloomed today ... which is a very bad sign down here (never seen it freeze after that happens))
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Hope that tree has plum muffs...it's gonna get cold! I'm trying to get some sleet down to you...just hold on a while longer :) I figure if Larry gets it, your chances go up. Any time you have cold and water in the same state, or very near by there's chances. T
 
Webberweather53 said:
The common denominator amongst every failed threat for wintry weather lately (& potentially this one too) is that aside from having a big vortex over SE Canada and New England, all of our potential events are associated with shortwaves that enter the contiguous US from the northern Rockies or Pacific Northwest and dive southeastward in the process, leading to a prolonged period of dry, west-northwest to northwesterly flow which leads to advection of cold, dry, descending air off the Rockies and Appalachians which suppresses the storm track and baroclinic zone well to the southeast. We can get the job done if we have a s/w that comes down the Rockies & Pacific NW, but we usually need to see shorter wavelengths and/or blocking upstream over the North Atlantic (-NAO) and/or north-central Canada to slow down the waves and give a chance for moist west-southwest to southwesterly flow to overrun the cold air that's obviously well entrenched atm. This doesn't mean the NAO is of upmost importance to get any wintry weather in general, but if we aren't receiving a steady supply of shortwaves in the southern stream, as we're often lacking in a NINA, we need a high-latitude blocking ridge there or else we're probably in trouble... If we can't get blocking in north-central Canada or Greenland, our only other primary option is we need a healthy shortwave to crash into California to really give us a chance for a board-wide overrunning event. You see, even with a big vortex over New England and SE Canada, plowing a healthy s/w into California and the four corners leads to moist west-southwest/southwesterly flow over the south-central plains anyway and allows deep tropical moisture from both the tropical east-central Pacific and Gulf of Mexico to overrun the low-level cold dome in the southern US, and gives us at least a legitimate fighting chance in a pattern like this. Huge upper level troughs plowing into California and the Four Corners regions often are associated with and herald a large-scale forthcoming pattern change and that may be what we need to trigger a storm here....

It's hard to pick out here (a testament to how pitiful this s/w was) but the shortwave that was associated with the December 28-29th threat (which ended up being a huge bust) entered the US thru the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies.
View attachment 2389

Shortwave associated with the New Years Day threat (which ended up busting), entered the US through the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies
View attachment 2388


Shortwave for the potential January 2-4 event enters the US thru the Northern Rockies in a few days. See the pattern here?
View attachment 2387
Click to expand...
Webberweather53 said:
The common denominator amongst every failed threat for wintry weather lately (& potentially this one too) is that aside from having a big vortex over SE Canada and New England, all of our potential events are associated with shortwaves that enter the contiguous US from the northern Rockies or Pacific Northwest and dive southeastward in the process, leading to a prolonged period of dry, west-northwest to northwesterly flow which leads to advection of cold, dry, descending air off the Rockies and Appalachians which suppresses the storm track and baroclinic zone well to the southeast. We can get the job done if we have a s/w that comes down the Rockies & Pacific NW, but we usually need to see shorter wavelengths and/or blocking upstream over the North Atlantic (-NAO) and/or north-central Canada to slow down the waves and give a chance for moist west-southwest to southwesterly flow to overrun the cold air that's obviously well entrenched atm. This doesn't mean the NAO is of upmost importance to get any wintry weather in general, but if we aren't receiving a steady supply of shortwaves in the southern stream, as we're often lacking in a NINA, we need a high-latitude blocking ridge there or else we're probably in trouble... If we can't get blocking in north-central Canada or Greenland, our only other primary option is we need a healthy shortwave to crash into California to really give us a chance for a board-wide overrunning event. You see, even with a big vortex over New England and SE Canada, plowing a healthy s/w into California and the four corners leads to moist west-southwest/southwesterly flow over the south-central plains anyway and allows deep tropical moisture from both the tropical east-central Pacific and Gulf of Mexico to overrun the low-level cold dome in the southern US, and gives us at least a legitimate fighting chance in a pattern like this. Huge upper level troughs plowing into California and the Four Corners regions often are associated with and herald a large-scale forthcoming pattern change and that may be what we need to trigger a storm here....

It's hard to pick out here (a testament to how pitiful this s/w was) but the shortwave that was associated with the December 28-29th threat (which ended up being a huge bust) entered the US thru the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies.
View attachment 2389

Shortwave associated with the New Years Day threat (which ended up busting), entered the US through the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies
View attachment 2388


Shortwave for the potential January 2-4 event enters the US thru the Northern Rockies in a few days. See the pattern here?
View attachment 2387
Click to expand...
Webberweather53 said:
The common denominator amongst every failed threat for wintry weather lately (& potentially this one too) is that aside from having a big vortex over SE Canada and New England, all of our potential events are associated with shortwaves that enter the contiguous US from the northern Rockies or Pacific Northwest and dive southeastward in the process, leading to a prolonged period of dry, west-northwest to northwesterly flow which leads to advection of cold, dry, descending air off the Rockies and Appalachians which suppresses the storm track and baroclinic zone well to the southeast. We can get the job done if we have a s/w that comes down the Rockies & Pacific NW, but we usually need to see shorter wavelengths and/or blocking upstream over the North Atlantic (-NAO) and/or north-central Canada to slow down the waves and give a chance for moist west-southwest to southwesterly flow to overrun the cold air that's obviously well entrenched atm. This doesn't mean the NAO is of upmost importance to get any wintry weather in general, but if we aren't receiving a steady supply of shortwaves in the southern stream, as we're often lacking in a NINA, we need a high-latitude blocking ridge there or else we're probably in trouble... If we can't get blocking in north-central Canada or Greenland, our only other primary option is we need a healthy shortwave to crash into California to really give us a chance for a board-wide overrunning event. You see, even with a big vortex over New England and SE Canada, plowing a healthy s/w into California and the four corners leads to moist west-southwest/southwesterly flow over the south-central plains anyway and allows deep tropical moisture from both the tropical east-central Pacific and Gulf of Mexico to overrun the low-level cold dome in the southern US, and gives us at least a legitimate fighting chance in a pattern like this. Huge upper level troughs plowing into California and the Four Corners regions often are associated with and herald a large-scale forthcoming pattern change and that may be what we need to trigger a storm here....

It's hard to pick out here (a testament to how pitiful this s/w was) but the shortwave that was associated with the December 28-29th threat (which ended up being a huge bust) entered the US thru the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies.
View attachment 2389

Shortwave associated with the New Years Day threat (which ended up busting), entered the US through the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies
View attachment 2388


Shortwave for the potential January 2-4 event enters the US thru the Northern Rockies in a few days. See the pattern here?
View attachment 2387
Click to expand...
Thanks for the objectivity and honesty Eric. TBH, it may put us down more and make us less hopeful to hear your honesty atm but I know you wish for something as much as any of us and you're just letting us know in advance not to get our hopes up even though it may hurt atm.
 
dsaur said:
Hope that tree has plum muffs...it's gonna get cold! I'm trying to get some sleet down to you...just hold on a while longer :) I figure if Larry gets it, your chances go up. Any time you have cold and water in the same state, or very near by there's chances. T
Click to expand...
Maybe I went to the brown acid tent by mistake ... :confused:
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Haha! That'll one will probably pan out too, because of the mixing issues. Lol Can't make out good with the cold source we have now.
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That one will pan out ! It can't stay cold forever! That will be the relaxation period, we all get rain! That one will trend NW
 
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