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Misc 2017 Banter/venting thread

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BillT said:
as we near the colder weather period, i want to explain something, i looked at becoming a meteorologist but decided against it because nobody can forecast the weather better than about 65% accuracy and i didnt want to be wrong so often in my chosen pursuit, i have the utmost respect for all of the weather forecasters because i appreciate their efforts in the face of the odds against them........that is why i oppose the bashing of any forecaster, most all of them are giving an honest effort and their best opinion, that said clearly some do nothing but spew whatever their favorite models says and make no real effort, that is just a comment of what i observe not directed at any forecaster........is my attitude on this wrong in some way please?
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There are a few specific mets in larger markets that tend to always be overly conservative in many situations. Then you have the other guys that make money on putting out extended forecasts that cater to a specific industry (example: energy).

What usually gets to me, is the bashing of the NWS for being late on things like Winter weather watches and warnings. Like them issuing the warning is going to make it snow or something.

I think a lot of time, people take model depictions as gospel. While they can be good indicators of what could and likely may happen, it's still not the true picture. I'm guilty of it, myself.
 
To elaborate on that previous post, we can learn from this hurricane season why modeling is to be taken with a grain of salt. The NWS/NHC did a great job with forecast tracks, even when modeling was leading many to think of another solution. Their tracks/cones were great.
 
Shawn said:
There are a few specific mets in larger markets that tend to always be overly conservative in many situations. Then you have the other guys that make money on putting out extended forecasts that cater to a specific industry (example: energy).

What usually gets to me, is the bashing of the NWS for being late on things like Winter weather watches and warnings. Like them issuing the warning is going to make it snow or something.

I think a lot of time, people take model depictions as gospel. While they can be good indicators of what could and likely may happen, it's still not the true picture. I'm guilty of it, myself.
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Shawn,
Concur 100%
The literal definition of forecast is: predict or estimate (a future event or trend).
If there were certainty, we'd all be doing something else entirely ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
Shawn said:
To elaborate on that previous post, we can learn from this hurricane season why modeling is to be taken with a grain of salt. The NWS/NHC did a great job with forecast tracks, even when modeling was leading many to think of another solution. Their tracks/cones were great.
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THIS^^^^ times a thousand...Well said Shawn.


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Storm5 said:
Haha lucky for me he is an awesome boss and funny guy. This is what I got in return

" not interested I'm really tired , raincheck?"
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Wow!! Ive done this alot LOL. This is great stuff here..
 
Shawn said:
There are a few specific mets in larger markets that tend to always be overly conservative in many situations. Then you have the other guys that make money on putting out extended forecasts that cater to a specific industry (example: energy).

What usually gets to me, is the bashing of the NWS for being late on things like Winter weather watches and warnings. Like them issuing the warning is going to make it snow or something.

I think a lot of time, people take model depictions as gospel. While they can be good indicators of what could and likely may happen, it's still not the true picture. I'm guilty of it, myself.
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It's ok to be conservative, but some mets won't say it's going to snow, until it's falling from the sky. The models are a tool, along with met experience, etc, to make the best forecast possible. Seeing 4 out of 5 models are showing snow, then to go against that, just because that the what happens 98/100 times. I'd give more cred to a met that uses his tools and makes an educated forecast, and is wrong, as opposed to one who waits till it's happening to make a forecast.
 
SD said:
Im moving out your way, rain/snow shield in tow, prepare for the worst winter EVER
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Lol every year is the worst winter ever. Where I live, you can look up at the 850mb level and see the big blue line just to the northwest. Sorry man. :(
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm going to Ireland & The UK in March for a week, knowing my luck I'll end up missing a blockbuster March snowstorm. :p
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That certainly would be my luck too and if this verifies we will be sending you on future out of country trips courtesy of the Southernwx in case of no winter fund

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metwannabe said:
That certainly would be my luck too and if this verifies we will be sending you on future out of country trips courtesy of the Southernwx in case of no winter fund

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This^^ the yearly Simeon Europe trip sponsored by southernwx. I'd gladly help pay for the trip every year if it would 100 percent give us a late season bomb

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Rain Cold said:
Lol every year is the worst winter ever. Where I live, you can look up at the 850mb level and see the big blue line just to the northwest. Sorry man. :(
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Eh I was looking at the rah past events page and the southern wake northern harnett area does ok 90% of the time. I'll take my chances.

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SD said:
Eh I was looking at the rah past events page and the southern wake northern harnett area does ok 90% of the time. I'll take my chances.

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Ahhh, getting sucked in by the past events page, are we? Mwahahaha....that's just what winter wants. You will see. You will see. :D
 
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