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2/4-2/5 Event - Mood Flakes or More?

What the deuce is going on? Wake up to this mess.
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EDIT: I miss golfing, need this mess gone asap. Where is my 60s, I thought February was a spring month anymore? You know, with all the "warming" and stuff, it can't possibly snow in the SE in February, right?

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jackendrickwx said:
a canadian ray of hope for some of you i-40-north folks

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at a glance i would expect the Canadian models' tendency to be too cold to be hurting it here but 2ms are pretty similar to the latest NAM. even so, without taking a ton of time to dive into this, this NAM output feels like it has more of a chance to verify than that RGEM map:

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its pretty close to the 6z euro

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northern nc is still in the fight to get some lucky duck to squeeze out an inch or so
 
This general setup at last in terms of the Upstate of SC and Northeast GA reminds me a little bit of the NW flow breached containment we seen in November of 2025 in terms of lift. Meso low seems to be trying to form in the upstate and we're general seeing an uptick in moisture/forcing. Interested to see how far this can go.

Edit:

Adding onto this, we really do need to watch how much of a western trend we get and a strengthen on H5, because if this keeps trending this way, things could get more interesting quick.
 
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iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
This general setup at last in terms of the Upstate of SC and Northeast GA reminds me a little bit of the NW flow breached containment we seen in November of 2025 in terms of lift. Meso low seems to be trying to form in the upstate and we're general seeing an uptick in moisture/forcing. Interested to see how far this can go.

Edit:

Adding onto this, we really do need to watch how much of a western trend we get and a strengthen on H5, because if this keeps trending this way, things could get more interesting quick.
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The problem in this case is that surface warm tongue/convergence boundary is 37-40 degrees. Could definitely be some mood flakes for you though Thursday morning.
 
Think the temps seeming to bust warmer this week (post storm cold push ended up over modeled) has an effect here? This is riding the marginal border hard.


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Raleighwxauthority said:
My first call for this event includes 2-4" for Raleigh with 1-2" in CLT. I think Greenville, NC is the sweet spot with 3-6" there.
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2-4" would be as wild as the snow hole last weekend. I think a dusting to an inch is generous with the conditions we will be up against.
 
If temperatures were better, I'd feel better about the potential of getting a inch or two from this system for folks to the south of the NC/VA border counties. They will be marginal, at best, and usually that brings folks in RDU and surrounding areas a sloppy mess in situations like Thursday's event.
 
I honestly don't see anyone South of HWY-58 IN VA having much luck here, as others have said.... temps are meh at best and this thing is weak. MAYBE extreme NE NC or the border ALL-Stars of Reidsville/ Roxboro. But imo as of now 58 in VA is the southern extent of anything noteworthy and by that I mean a quick 1-2". I-40 to HWY58 Possibly a Dusting but I doubt it, You will SEE snow with your eyes in Northern NC tomorrow but its not heavy enough to accumulate at 33-36
 
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