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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

Chazwin said:
I’m just putting this on here to show how absolutely worthless the GFS has become. This was from Tuesday night’s 0z run. At only 102 hours out, the GFS had what would have a widespread significant snowstorm for the entire western 2/3rds of the Carolinas. So going forward when we see the phrase..”if the GFS is to be believed” you can just stop reading.
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That model is awful. Its ensembles are awful. They were spitting out 4” means here not even a day ago. Just stick to a combination of the EURO/EPS/UK and maybe the ICON at times.
 
iGRXY said:
That model is awful. Its ensembles are awful. They were spitting out 4” means here not even a day ago. Just stick to a combination of the EURO/EPS/UK and maybe the ICON at times.
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The GEFS is really what has become very surprising with this. In the past you could use them to at least get a general idea of how things may play out from 96 hours in, but with them even as late Thursday they had me with a 2” mean even while no other models were showing anything
 
I still like Highlands, NC for the jackpot. If the Hrrr and RAP are to be believed they should get close to a foot. Western upstate still isn't out of the game tomorrow morning... we just need a raging thunder band like the hrrr/rap are hinting at to have a chance. Window of opportunity would be 7-10am. If the dry slot punches through like the NAM shows it's over. Should be interesting to watch it play out either way.

Really stinks how much models have warmed the low levels in the last 24 hours... even in CAD areas with the strong low level jet. Think it's just a product of stronger/warmer WAA out ahead of our storm eating in to what little bit of low level cold we had. Yesterday and the day before most models had pockets of -2 and -3 925 temps in the heart of CAD regions... now we're up to +1 or so in the coldest spots and will need a miracle with heavy rates to overcome.

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Couple things, this isn't a 10 to 1 storm so those maps are useless, also what falls and what accumulates is a pretty wide gap on this one. I think if people are chasing plan for the worst and hope for the best.
 

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Curious if dp's are at all a factor as it seems like pretty much everything else is out the window with this system? Can anyone tell us if they are higher or lower then was forecast? Thx much!
 
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