Be sure to show us that blizzard out there on Sunday. I can’t wait to see white out conditions at 38 degrees!
I did not have power most of the morning today, no thanks on the ice!0z GFS
The euro only has snow for the highest elevations of Georgia. WNC and east TN is the only people seeing consistent run to run consistency and don’t have to fight BL temps. This just isn’t the storm, we needed a perfect track and perfect intensity to get enough dynamic cooling to work outside of the mountains. That didn’t happen here.
"That didn't happen here" ahh so you've already had the storm? Gotcha!
The ones writing it off are the ones that Live and die by Every single Model Run. There's more to predicting weather than just models
I agree. Well said. We did it for years before we had any models. Good luck your way with the storm.
Thanks you too. It will be fun to watch unfold regardless of what falls. ULLs are very Dynamic which makes them fun to watch! I've seen models show nothing on models around here for ULLs, highs in the 50s and by midnight have 5" on the ground! They can do some crazy Stuff regardless of Models. A lot of times Models just cannot pick up on the dynamics of those type systems.
This being a “warm upper low” is certainly why I’ve not favored an expansive area of accumulating snow outside of the mountains, even with some of those crazy model runs the other day. Even still, I won’t be suprised at all to see a localized band that gets maybe a coating to an inch underneath were the coldest core passes… as long there can be some good enough rates there to drag down cold enough air
LMFAOOOO. Since this is a weather forum and we are suppose to be breaking down the storm with actuals facts, please show all of us one thing that should make anyone outside of western NC and extreme high elevations of North Georgia excited about getting any winter precipitation out of this. And I don’t want, “ULL can do whatever they want, models don’t know everything.” Models don’t know everything but there’s not one showing not only accumulation in SC but now most don’t even have snow flying in this state. I can show everything from warm BL temps, terrible track that puts us on the warm side not only at the surface but above our heads too. Nothing at 500mlb to show any sort of cold source for the ULL to tap into and zero low level cold from the small shot we had at getting CAD established before the storm. Simple fact is we needed a perfect track and perfect intensity just to have the HOPE of seeing snow. When your ULL closes off over Dallas Texas, that put the nail in the coffin here.
The dry slot is eating up all the available moisture even in the comma head where the coldest 850’s are. And even there we are only around -2 on average with pockets of colder air at 850, but no rates to drive the snow to the surface. Extreme northern Piedmont and Virginia is about the only spot I could see an “over performer” outside of the mountains. Where you are getting the coldest 850’s and the last of heaviest precip moving out. I’m the biggest snow weenie and will hold out to almost the very end even when trends go from a great Storm opportunity to a dud like all the threats this year. But at some point you just got to face the reality on the wall. I can’t point to a single model that looks good east of the mountains. I don’t want to be the Debbie downer at all, but at some point you just got to realize this one has at best 5% chance to even get snow flying much less accumulating. Just wait until the end of feb when the pattern looks to switch to more favorability for 10-14 days.
I'd nudge C just about 40 miles east, especially in the northern piedmont, but I get why he put it where he did.
