olhausen
Member
I’d normally give It no thought. However the models have been all over with this thing so who knows. Weather man’s woe as they say with these ULL systems.
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Oconeexman
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That's it exactly...not enough consistency even with the meso models. So right now it's a toss up. I still believe like others have said Highlands/Cashiers are gets dumped on regardless. ULL's are prob the hardest things to forecast because a shift in track can happen up to 12hrs before impact and change things greatly. Ive seen that work out good here and bad...so who knows at this point.
HugeSnowStick
Member
Just do not want Memphis to get anything,,,LOL
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severestorm
Member
18z GFS and the ensembles took a step back from 12z
accu35
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It actually was the same if not a tad better for WNW
I think the GFS looked just about the same for the northern piedmont areas
Oconeexman
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Tbh it's probably the worst tool we have at the moment whether it shows anything or not.
severestorm
Member
Is it a synoptic scale model, so it's fair game. It's verification scores don't decrease as something gets closer.
Snowman63
Member
Well that’s not very nice. Why do you say that?
rburrel2
Member
Atlanta just got RAP’ed
ATLwxfan
Member
rburrel2
Member
W
WSW
Guest
Yeah, add Grayson in there as well. Grayson Highlands State Park is beautiful and elevations are up over 5K.
rburrel2
Member
Are the Hrrr, RAP, and bouncycorn model on to something here with the comma head death band???
My heart says yes, but my head says no!
My heart says yes, but my head says no!
rburrel2
Member
Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in!!!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
One run with one shift, but unless the others start moving there's likely no hope for areas outside the mountains to see anything even for GA unless you get lucky with a sudden burst.
RAP model has been the most consistent and best case scenario out of all the short range (even if you include the weenie NAM runs yesterday). If any GA folks desperately want a model to cling onto for cautious optimism this is the one. I know all model guidance regardless of their forecasting range struggle with ULLs, but in a general sense I wonder which one tends to have the better track record overall in scenarios like this. (HRRR, RAP, NAM, WRF? etc)
rburrel2
Member
I always feel like dry slots over-perform and move in quicker... so I'm skeptical of the slow pivoting comma head being shown, but I'll hope it's right.
Snownut
Member
I've been saying it and models have shown it, that pickens and Oconee counties are the place to be in the upstate for this one. Not saying a big Snow is coming but I could see those areas getting 1-2" but then it's gone by afternoon
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
An earlier frame from my freebie site shows the 850Mb low center much further south than any of today's runs. Very much in line with last night's 00zNAM although a little less cold/slower.
Let's hope this is the start of reeling this one back in. Yeah, always the optimist lol.
