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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

BHS1975 said:
Womp womp

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Based on the Nam and hrrr soundings we are razor thin between rain and sleet for the first few hours Saturday night
 
It's really going to come down to the cold core and the dynamic cooling in the deform band as to where it'll snow most likely. You need the rates to get the cold below a reasonable height and rates to be there and we only will know the true extent of over/under when it rolls around. I think we have a general consensus of where to watch for wintry precip now though.
 
Hrrr looking sexy with on the composite radar for north ga and the upstate. That should be snow falling as the cold pool has moved over.. boundary layer concerns still exist though on the hrrr, but imo it has a slight warm bias at the surface in the long range and if we get potential thundersnow rates like shown it should drop us to 32/33.Screen Shot 2023-02-10 at 8.58.18 AM.png
 
Last frame of the hrrr at 7am Sunday morning... Oconee county getting obliterated with chicken feathers as that band pivots over the area. 500mb low also looks to have finished occluding just south of Atlanta and is starting to pivot more easterly after vertically stacking with the surface and 850mb low.

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rburrel2 said:
Hrrr looking sexy with on the composite radar for north ga and the upstate. That should be snow falling as the cold pool has moved over.. boundary layer concerns still exist though on the hrrr, but imo it has a slight warm bias at the surface in the long range and if we get potential thundersnow rates like shown it should drop us to 32/33.
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As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.
 
strongwxnc said:
As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.
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I really think the key of where the accumulating snowfall outside of mountain areas is going to be where exactly that cold core moves and if there is heavy enough precip rates to get enough snow. Like I said yesterday, I think there will be an area of that outside the mountains, but it will be quite narrow… maybe 60-70 miles.
 
I am excited by what I'm seeing . This reminds me of two events from the late 1980s when we got 6 or more inches of snow that were supposed to be rain mixed with snow or a brief change over to snow. both times there was no real cold nearby, and a cold core upper low was coming through. Right at sunset the dynamic cooling went to work and the rain turned to big old silver dollar snowflakes. We didn't have internet back then so we didn't have access to all these models, so I didn't get to see what the meteorologist were seeing, but I remember the forecast being similar to these. I would look for the change over to be in the northwestern corner of the storm, west and northwest of the surface LP, possibly beginning in the late afternoon when the surface LP begins to intensify and the precip begins to get heavier. Of course, the greatest chance of accumulation is gonna be in the higher elevations, but I think there could be some lower elevation surprises. the 3km NAM is beginning to hint at this.
 
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