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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

bouncycorn said:
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This shows that elevation could mean everything.
 
ATLwxfan said:
We have to base our expectations on the reality that these days winter in AL, GA, SC, and most of NC resides in the mountains/far north of the state. Models that advertise otherwise will likely trend away or be wrong.


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I think as much as anything we’ve just had a number of marginal, crappy setups ever since January 2019. The lone exception being the storm last Jan that hit the Upstate pretty hard. We’re not alone though. Same thing can be said in Philly & DC. Is it a new norm? I kind of doubt it, but none of us know for sure
 
griteater said:
I think as much as anything we’ve just had a number of marginal, crappy setups ever since January 2019. The lone exception being the storm last Jan that hit the Upstate pretty hard. We’re not alone though. Same thing can be said in Philly & DC. Is it a new norm? I kind of doubt it, but none of us know for sure
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We definitely had long stretches before early 90s come to mind. La Nina for the last couple years has really hurt too imo.
 
The trend overnight seems to have been quicker deepening and tugging more north with the 500mb low. yuck!

I will say though, while this decrease most peoples chances on the front end due to too much WAA.... we're still going to get that cold core passage Sunday morning where soundings will be very supportive of snow. A 2-3 hour window of light to moderate snow looks like likely for northern GA, upstate SC, and western NC as that feature passes overhead. Could be issues with sticking depending on surface temps and time of day... but at least, imo, theres a high chance we will see snow falling at minimum.

Edit to add: I also haven't thrown in the towel on higher totals... These storms tend to lose some amperage on modeling in the last 48hrs... especially when they're showing such rapid deepening.
 
packfan98 said:
It's always interesting to see some of these hi-resolution models that the weather stations use. Sometimes it's a preview of what the hrrr might spit out.
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The timing is a disaster for NC folks, too. If it even happens, we will have the unholy trifecta for lack of snow accumulation: warm soil temps, warm BL, AND sun angle (a lot of this looks like mid-day).
 
That upper level low back side moisture behind the first push will surprise someone outside of the mountains Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon along the 85 corridor. I'm going to stick with that. You are going to get a band that forms as cold air aloft pools in behind the LP. That in house model shows it well from Christian.
 
packfan98 said:
Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
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I hope you get it brother, I believe a lot of folks will at least see some snow falling even if it is mixed with rain/sleet. But I really believe later in February into March we will have a good board wide winter storm, I think we're going to have a good pattern for 2/3 weeks....
 
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