rburrel2
Member
The 21z RAP is a beaut. Faster, further south, more positively tilted, and colder in the midlevels when comparing to the NAM/GFS.
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rburrel2
Member
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Latest MMFS thru 11z.. 1km resolution and 4km resolution.
I find it noteworthy that the forecasted forward speed of the 500Mb low crawls across Ga. and S.C. It actually takes the better part of 24 hours to move from the SW Ga. border to the S.C. coast with a near stall over NE Ga. for 6-9 hours.
As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.
09Z:
18 hours later!
As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.
09Z:
18 hours later!
What exactly is the reason for the slow movement?? You wouldn’t expect that with no downstream blocking. Is the low in the 50/50 region really working that well?
3k NAM is really good at sniffing out warm noses
iGRXY
Member
It’s cutoff.
My read is it's a result of its complete detachment from the northern stream, and a response to the deepening coastal surface low.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
MMFS sounding for 10z on Sunday at KMGE (Marietta, Ga)
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
I think MMFS will be particularly useful in this event because it has a lot of vertical layers concentrated close to the surface (more than any other model that I know of), so it should be able to have a very good handle on the near surface thermal activity.
I’m in Lenoir and feel like the adjacent foothills are bordering on an impactful event so close. Probably won’t know until go time. These upper lows always surprise you. March 09 was sickening in this area
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC just added SN to my grid!
I remember that satellite picture the day after that storm and you could see that strip that of bare ground while areas on either side had a few inches. I know that had to be frustrating
The 3K NAM is much further north into Alabama with the 500Mb low than the 12K NAM.
She's a fickle little beast.
strongwxnc
Member
Lilychandler
Member
What effect does this haveThe 3K NAM is much further north into Alabama with the 500Mb low than the 12K NAM.
She's a fickle little beast.
Possibly much less snow because youre starting off warmer in the atmosphere.
If it's cut off from the flow with no steering current per se, what is causing it to make a beeline NE instead of just slowly drifting East off the coast?
The cliff note is the further west the track of the 500Mb low tracks, the further west the best snow will fall. A boulder of salt on both models at this range is in order too.
especially the 3k being at the end of its range but it is really good at this warm nose stuff.