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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

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SD said:
I actually hadn't looked at the NAM sounding for your location but after doing so this shot of WAA with the initial surge of lift is not what you are looking for as its likely to warm the 825-875 layer until the +2-4 range. Move this 50 miles to the SE toward the euro suite and you are golden otherwise it's rain/IP even with the colder 925sView attachment 132784
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Yea, there's no chance with the initial WAA driven precip shield on the NAM b/c it's way too amped up. Our time to make hay on the NAM is after the upper low moves through. The GFS and Euro are trying to thread a delicate balance on that first batch though.

I have zero faith that we score on the initial round of precip... but i'll continue to monitor it just in case. lol.
 
rburrel2 said:
Yea, there's no chance with the initial WAA driven precip shield on the NAM b/c it's way too amped up. Our time to make hay on the NAM is after the upper low moves through. The GFS and Euro are trying to thread a delicate balance on that first batch though.

I have zero faith that we score on the initial round of precip... but i'll continue to monitor it just in case. lol.
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You are probably fine with the wrap around stuff if I lived there I'd be pretty optimistic about it snowing with maybe an inch or 2 being doable
 
Id feel confident if I lived like 30 miles northeast of Atlanta…say an area around Gainesville, then north and northeast from there up through Upstate SC and foothills of NC and ofc the mountainous areas. Outside of that, its much more lottery based. It looks like a more marginal March 2009 to me which probably won’t bold well for my backyard.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
How much have you gotten so far this season? It seems like better than most areas.
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2.6 inches of snow and a little over a quarter of an inch of freezing rain. It’s not a ton but still enough to completely cover the ground twice in a few days around Christmas plus a couple of dustings.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Id feel confident if I lived like 30 miles northeast of Atlanta…say an area around Gainesville, then north and northeast from there up through Upstate SC and foothills of NC and ofc the mountainous areas. Outside of that, its much more lottery based. It looks like a more marginal March 2009 to me which probably won’t bold well for my backyard.
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Honestly, as of right now, any direction within 50-100 miles of Atlanta could jackpot this one. It all depends on the path and strength of the ULL. We won't truly know until mping reports start rolling in.
 
metwannabe said:
Pretty substantial shift south with the 850 low on the Euro as well
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My goal this winter has been reduced to getting the mulch white and officially avoiding a shutout, which has never happened. Im one hiccup away from success or failure. Jury is still hanging in the balance. Sucks boiled eggs seeing a surface low deepening off the GA coast in Feb. Use to be money in the bank here
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Honestly, as of right now, any direction within 50-100 miles of Atlanta could jackpot this one. It all depends on the path and strength of the ULL. We won't truly know until mping reports start rolling in.
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With how runs have been today, unless something drastic happens, I think N GA up through the mountains is moderately safe to at least see snow fall.
 
NCSNOW said:
My goal this winter has been reduced to getting the mulch white and officially avoiding a shutout, which has never happened. Im one hiccup away from success or failure. Jury is still hanging in the balance. Sucks boiled eggs seeing a surface low deepening off the GA coast in Feb. Use to be money in the bank here
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TRUTH!!!!
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Id feel confident if I lived like 30 miles northeast of Atlanta…say an area around Gainesville, then north and northeast from there up through Upstate SC and foothills of NC and ofc the mountainous areas. Outside of that, its much more lottery based. It looks like a more marginal March 2009 to me which probably won’t bold well for my backyard.
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I would allow myself to get excited now if I was in WNC; I suspect many of them will see at least some snow and many areas could get a good bit. WNC is defintely the best area in this part of the country with the most chances. As an Upstater (and particularly western Upstate) I have almost no confidence is seeing any real snow with this. The boundary layer looks way to warm to me; so that even if we were able to get some snow falling it would likely just melt on contact. Need the SE trends to continue, but even then there just isn't enough cold outside the mtns for most. I think NE Upstate will have the best chance here in SC; East of Greenville and North of 29. Give me a colder March 09 and that would be HUGE for many; a warmer March 09 will be wet for many.
 
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