Pretty substantial shift south with the 850 low on the Euro as well
@Rosie You are in the GA bullseye for this one so far!
yeah thats the catch 22 with a quicker, weaker ull50 miles as the crow flies. Have to be careful though to make sure the shift doesn't come from a lot of weakening which will zap the dynamic cooling.
One more of those and suddenly we back
Elevation is key imo look at Western Burke Eastern McDowell countys the 6 in line is where 1400" starts.
True, but even before the cold pool moves in the NAM is way stronger with 925mb cold air supply. If you click on soundings pretty much everybody is well below freezing at 900-950mb Saturday night even with a well above freezing raging warm nose above that.If I were in your shoes the only thing that would really concern me about the NAM is that it's artificially collapsing the cold from the top down by being over amplified and too heavy with precip. That may not be the case but keep it in mind
Come on now frosty you've said this before and always come out ok. You'll definitely see some backend flakes Sunday morning.I'm probably stuck with heavy rain while the western part of the county may get in on some heavy snow. But definitely Fancy Gap will do good at 2000 feet. I would be happy if I could just see some huge snowflakes mix in, that would be a win in this awful winter!
an issue is that there's not a single place with a lot of room for error since the preceding airmass is so mildReally not much disagreement with the 500mb low placement now. They just disagree a bunch on the strength/temp/precip details.
Euro is the furthest S/E model now.
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I actually hadn't looked at the NAM sounding for your location but after doing so this shot of WAA with the initial surge of lift is not what you are looking for as its likely to warm the 825-875 layer until the +2-4 range. Move this 50 miles to the SE toward the euro suite and you are golden otherwise it's rain/IP even with the colder 925sTrue, but even before the cold pool moves in the NAM is way stronger with 925mb cold air supply. If you click on soundings pretty much everybody is well below freezing at 900-950mb Saturday night even with a well above freezing raging warm nose above that.
If that low level cold air feed is real on the NAM it has big implications for snow reaching the ground and sticking when the cold pool moves over head Sunday morning.
Of course to some degree I think the stronger/more amped solution of the last NAM run goes hand in hand with strengthening that 925mb low level jet so it makes sense... but the NAM has been better/colder with it even on the runs that had a further Southeast and weaker low solution.