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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

SD said:
Nam takes forever to erode the dry layer between 850 and about 925. With best lift and convergence across the nc/va border into va the virga storm on the NAMs makes sense. The fv3 may be closer to reality where the dry layer gets eroded faster so we start seeing precip hitting the ground here around noon or so.
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It's always something. Warm layer, dry layer, no forcing, something.... if there's a way to fail, we shall find it 🫡
 
This is just painful to watch. I could have sworn over the past few years, models used to be so much better for predicting snow events at 48-84hrs out, either that or trending up from a marginal event to a more impactful system (might be confirmation bias), but I really have seen so many smaller events recently that would have been fairly substantial accumulations, but trended away over the few hours ahead of the storm. Don’t know if I’m right, but it sure feels like it, and it sucks.
 
It does seem most of the time the models trend worse instead of better inside 48 hours. It sucks that we can't depend on the models even 48 hours out.
 
Greg Fishel's post on Facebook about 30 minutes ago.

THIS TIME I CAN PROMISE YOU SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE, BUT…

It will snow tomorrow, and rarely can I make a statement like that in the piedmont of North Carolina with such high confidence! In contrast to the event a few days ago, a deep layer of the atmosphere will be cooling and we won’t have to worry about warm air aloft. But I have other concerns relating to impact.

First of all, the morning rush hour will be fine. A little light rain, if that. The precipitation intensity should pick up a bit late morning as the atmosphere cools enough to produce snow. But will it come down hard enough to extract heat from a warm ground and allow the snow to accumulate on the roads? I have my doubts but it’s worth watching. Accumulations are more likely on grassy surfaces and there I could see half an inch to at most an inch.

Then tomorrow night, black ice warnings are already flying, and that could happen but consider this. As soon as temps go below freezing tomorrow evening, the air will begin to dry out. This will cause increased evaporation rates. It’ll be a race! Will the standing water evaporate before it can freeze, or will it freeze before it can evaporate? That is the million dollar question! If the water does freeze I think it would be after the evening rush hour, so at this point I think the commute home will not be all that bad.

So those are my thoughts at the moment. Will update as needed but not just for the sake of cluttering the Facebook landscape! Talk soon
 
C-Money said:
Greg Fishel's post on Facebook about 30 minutes ago.

THIS TIME I CAN PROMISE YOU SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE, BUT…

It will snow tomorrow, and rarely can I make a statement like that in the piedmont of North Carolina with such high confidence! In contrast to the event a few days ago, a deep layer of the atmosphere will be cooling and we won’t have to worry about warm air aloft. But I have other concerns relating to impact.

First of all, the morning rush hour will be fine. A little light rain, if that. The precipitation intensity should pick up a bit late morning as the atmosphere cools enough to produce snow. But will it come down hard enough to extract heat from a warm ground and allow the snow to accumulate on the roads? I have my doubts but it’s worth watching. Accumulations are more likely on grassy surfaces and there I could see half an inch to at most an inch.

Then tomorrow night, black ice warnings are already flying, and that could happen but consider this. As soon as temps go below freezing tomorrow evening, the air will begin to dry out. This will cause increased evaporation rates. It’ll be a race! Will the standing water evaporate before it can freeze, or will it freeze before it can evaporate? That is the million dollar question! If the water does freeze I think it would be after the evening rush hour, so at this point I think the commute home will not be all that bad.

So those are my thoughts at the moment. Will update as needed but not just for the sake of cluttering the Facebook landscape! Talk soon
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and will he stand in a fountain again if we see narry a single flake?
 
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Mpirone12 said:
That is wild. It keeps expanding as we get closer to go time


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This thing is either the new king …. Or a MASSIVE piece of Dog . It not only refuses to back off it keeps doubling down, someone smarter than me….. what are the differences at H5 that cause this downstream?


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
This thing is either the new king …. Or a MASSIVE piece of Dog . It not only refuses to back off it keeps doubling down, someone smarter than me….. what are the differences at H5 that cause this downstream?


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And itn s crazy that there is such a difference in that model and others less than 24 hours out. There is even a difference of nothing at all or 2 inches on the short range models. I guess that's why all the local mets play it safe and just go with whatever one shows the least amount.
 
C-Money said:
And itn s crazy that there is such a difference in that model and others less than 24 hours out. There is even a difference of nothing at all or 2 inches on the short range models. I guess that's why all the local mets play it safe and just go with whatever one shows the least amount.
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You can always go up in totals at game time and no one cares….. you have to start backing off closer to tip and people will remember that. Or if you bust low no one cares, throw out something wild and get burned you lose credibility. For those of us who’ve been around here forever in CLT….. Ol Brad P used to be the biggest weenie of all time. If you wanted hopium you’d tune in to WCNC to watch him bc he’d be higher than anyone else. He used to get burned a ton, post Feb 2014 (14” here) he started playing super conservative


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C-Money said:
If anything, the GFS has held consistent. But is it consistently wrong or right?
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It pulled a cat out of its hat with last February’s storm, on an island for days that ended up being mostly right while other modeling was off. I will ride and die with this until I end up with just a dusting tomorrow.
 
4z HRRR looks like it’s going to be better for portions of NC. Higher QPF…
 

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SimeonNC said:
I'm just gonna call it as I see it, the HRRR is out to frickin' lunch. Looking at the current radar presentation and the fact that it's frickin' foggy as all hell outside where I'm at right now, there's no way it ends up that dry.
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I’m with you, HRRR is one of my least favorite models for this reason. It almost always underestimates QPF. That’s why I like the NAM more at a range like this. NBM is also showing more QPF so I’m not buying it.
 
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