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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

Bigedd09 said:
Is this good?
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Not bad I don’t think, coastal low might kick in here the next few frames


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jackendrickwx said:
What is wrong with the NAM right now

It keeps leaving these unnatural stationary pockets of no precip

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Couple of things. Since the “upgrade” some time back of the NAM it’s been light on qpf. The 3k NAM higher resolution is able to pick up on the Synoptics of this event better than the 12k
 
CaryWx said:
Wasn't this always a moisture starved event?
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Sure there could be some issues at onset within the model of boundary layer dry air, but not literal stationary pockets of zero precip. That doesn’t make sense. I would think it should be pretty closed to fully filled in like the 3k, and would imagine it’ll correct
 
jackendrickwx said:
What is wrong with the NAM right now

It keeps leaving these unnatural stationary pockets of no precip

View attachment 178302
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I've honestly seen the 12km NAM referred to as one of the worst models out there.

3km NAM has some utility, especially with warm nosing / warm advection of course. It can be a bit light on precip when at range IMO
 
griteater said:
I've honestly seen the 12km NAM referred to as one of the worst models out there.

3km NAM has some utility, especially with warm nosing / warm advection of course. It can be a bit light on precip when at range IMO
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12K NAM isn’t my favorite but I love the 3K. I have found it to be good at snowfall predictions during winter. It’s a model that should definitely not be ignored
 
griteater said:
I've honestly seen the 12km NAM referred to as one of the worst models out there.

3km NAM has some utility, especially with warm nosing / warm advection of course. It can be a bit light on precip when at range IMO
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Agreed. We see time and time again the NAM starts honking the warm nose (when other models miss it) and is right more times than not. Seeing no sign of warm nosing on the NAM this time gives me hope.
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RBR71 said:
Agreed. We see time and time again the NAM starts honking the warm nose (when other models miss it) and is right more times than not. Seeing no sign of warm nosing on the NAM this time gives me hope.
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Certainly a rain or snow deal with the cold aloft. And in the event of heavier rates with borderline temps, this is a rates will Overcome deal
 
griteater said:
Yeah, but these are the improvements with the wave that I've been looking for / hoping for all along. More amplitude, more vorticity, farther south. Hope it continues. Trend loop here on the hi-res / 3km NAM

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I agree with you Grit, definitely some better adjustments being made with the upper air features. Glad to see it and I hope it continues as well. Negative tilt would certainly up the ante on this deal. Flow is a little too fast for it this go round.


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From KRDU 1:30PM:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH COLD AIR
CHASING THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL START NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE VA BORDER AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT—GENERALLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT TO
RALEIGH TO LEXINGTON. BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY
EVENING, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA
BORDER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR AND MAINLY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
—————

Does this seem realistic for RDU, little or no accum. due to cold chasing moisture? If there is any accum, what’s a reasonable upside accum limit there? Opinions?
 
GaWx said:
From KRDU 1:30PM:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH COLD AIR
CHASING THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL START NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE VA BORDER AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT—GENERALLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT TO
RALEIGH TO LEXINGTON. BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY
EVENING, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA
BORDER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR AND MAINLY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
—————

Does this seem realistic for RDU, little or no accum. due to cold chasing moisture? If there is any accum, what’s a reasonable upside accum limit there? Opinions?
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You have to remember that was at 1:30 this afternoon and with how last storm went the last thing they’re going to do is honk the horn on anything until it’s ironed out.


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RBR71 said:
NAMs future replacement don't look as good, fyi. Still in testing mode though, no idea verification scores or how well it does with wintry precip

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IDK the scores obviously, however ...... I would take this as the winner currently until proven otherwise. Take the warmest and the driest and thats normally a solid bet jmo
 
RBR71 said:
NAMs future replacement don't look as good, fyi. Still in testing mode though, no idea verification scores or how well it does with wintry precip

View attachment 178313
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By the way, that model (RRFSv1) is trash and isn’t replacing NAM. The operational version of RRFS (RRFSV2) will be MPAS-based, so see GSL-MPAS and MPAS-rn
 
GaWx said:
From KRDU 1:30PM:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH COLD AIR
CHASING THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL START NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE VA BORDER AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT—GENERALLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT TO
RALEIGH TO LEXINGTON. BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY
EVENING, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA
BORDER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR AND MAINLY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
—————

Does this seem realistic for RDU, little or no accum. due to cold chasing moisture? If there is any accum, what’s a reasonable upside accum limit there? Opinions?
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As noted that AFD was from earlier and things have changed since then and they also heavily utilize the NBM. As you can see that has also shown a nice uptick in accums, the last 2 frames are since their discussion at 1:30, if this trend continues, I'd expect to see a little different wording tomorrow. Maybe even in the overnight package

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