alright well i am a strong believer in forecasting transparency / public humiliation as motivation for getting things right next time, so here's my absolute stinker of a forecast map i made yesterday. just too aggressive, should have looked at QPF more & kuchera less and followed my gut on mixing cutting into totals more, but alas.
recap: some of the northwestern fringe (alleghany, surry counties, just north of mt. airy) of the 1-2" verified. most of Ashe/alleghany was in 2-4" and that was too high, i've seen one 2" report from the very tippy top nw corner of ashe this morning, so technically yay i guess. the 0.5-1" and dusting-0.5" placement was -ok- in WNC, but still too high generally as it seems accumulations above a half inch or so stop around boone. would have been a better map if i had trimmed the 1-2" further northwest (especially on the eastern end of the 1-2" zone) and dropped the 2-4" entirely. also, badly done for most of wilkes co. i think northern wilkes scraped out an inch, but that's all. 0.5 or less in town.
in my defense, i just got my degree 7 months ago and haven't been an operational forecaster for long, and the trends were late in the game on short-range modeling. but that's not really any excuse because my job as a meteorologist isn't to just blend what the models are saying at any given moment, its to predict where they end up
grade: D, maybe D+ if i am being generous. not terribly off in the NW corner of the state, but badly done in the foothills and north central part of the state. at least it looks nice.
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