12/2/2024 - Potential Clipper Action!

[packfan98]

Get your spotlights ready!

 

[jackendrickwx]

New HRRR def looks more juiced west of the Apps, now what makes it over?

 

[jackendrickwx]

reflectivity weenie map bc i'm too cheap for hrrr H5 maps. precip later than previous run and was initially further north, lends to @1300m point about location of returns

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this gives credence that the RAP run was off its rocker. Still nice to see. Like my map for now

 

[Twister]

What the chances northern upstate sees some flurries or light snow shower out of this

 

[SD]

Hrrr soundings are pretty saturated around the area for a good 3-5 hours

 

[DopplerWx]

this gives credence that the RAP run was off its rocker. Still nice to see. Like my map for now View attachment 155277

Looks similar to the rap no?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Hrrr soundings are pretty saturated around the area for a good 3-5 hours

can a man borrow some precip to saturate the lower levels

 

[BullCityWx]

The snow growth layer starting at 850 definitely helps us vs being higher up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks similar to the rap no?

Yeah but that RAP had over 1” in some areas. way to high

 

[NCSNOW]

View attachment 155276

Upslope NWFS on the Uwharrie Mountain Range LOL

 

[SD]

View attachment 155278
can a man borrow some precip to saturate the lower levels

These soundings make my stomach hurt. Close enough to over perform close enough to complete heart break

 

[jackendrickwx]

These soundings make my stomach hurt. Close enough to over perform close enough to complete heart breakView attachment 155279

i just think we'll need to be ready for the Great Virga Outbreak of 2024 to unfold. Somebody will finally get enough saturation to see one flake at 12:57am after the rest of us give up (not a forecast lol but i wouldn't rule it out)

 

[jackendrickwx]

0z nam3 roughly the same, a bit less coverage but the idea remains

 

[griteater]

On the HRRR, here is the infamous upstate / GSP mesolow that forms in these types of setups with upper wave / vort max approaching from the NW. Mesolow tracks across northern SC to Myrtle Beach. Helps with low level convergence and lift along and north of its track

 

[griteater]

On the HRRR, here is the vertical velocity (rising motion, in pink) moving thru the Carolinas at the 750mb level, which is near the core level of the dendrite growth zone in this setup

 

[Webberweather53]

Building off of griteater's posts here, you can see the main forcing mechanism for generating light snow tomorrow night over NC is where you can get sufficient low-level (~800-850 hPa) sloped frontogenesis/convergence just underneath the DGZ & north of the mesolow, with the trailing mid-level vort max providing additional support.

 

[jrips27]

Good luck everyone

 

[accu35]

Looks like northern Al could see some as well