Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[iGRXY]

4-6" along and north of 85. Around 0.25-0.4" of Ice south of there

 

[jrips27]

 

[Stormlover]

just the first storm for us(friday)

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve seen this movie before. Doesn’t end well for me.

When it’s 29 degrees on the NC/VA border at the height of a storm you know you’re money

 

[Snowlover34]

just the first strom for us(friday) View attachment 159909

That first storm looking good for the Hazel Green area

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[buckinbronco]

Better. Would be cool to improve on it. Still wish we could get the northern energy out in front of the Baja piece like the 0z run showed last night.

 

[FallsLake]

This run still didn't help everybody, but this was still a good check on the 12z model runs. So we now had two good runs (ICON & GFS).

 

[NCSNOW]

NS out in front on Canadian. What we want

 

[Oconeexman]

Icestorm will never happen into the midlands but here’s the icon at the height of the 12z storm. I don’t have great maps but it looked like it was trying to Miller B. Usually the globals have an issue placing a wedge in the correct location at this lead time. Biggest takeaway the last couple runs for me is there’s gonna be a wedge somewhere. How deep is the question.View attachment 159893

Zero faith in the Icon but that's a Nuke for me and burrel!

 

[iGRXY]

CMC looks to be suppressed

 

[NCSNOW]

CMC looks to be suppressed

Did this last night then comes back sunday

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Squashed on Canadian

 

[BullCityWx]

Wake Gradient
Mecklenburg Gradient
Roxboro jackpot

 

[Shawn]

Okay guys, about to scale the resources up. We will be back shortly.

Edit: Done.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Atlanta snow to rain.

Snow to ice. Gfs will most certainly be 1 to 3 degrees too warm here. Werbulbs in the upper 20s when precip arrives..almost no chance it warms as much as advertised with cold surface to 925mb temps. In fact, northern burbs would likely just be snow to sleet.

 

[SD]

Wake Gradient
Mecklenburg Gradient
Roxboro jackpot

Pain for SD ️

 

[Mitch West]

I don't like the change over to rain

Welcome to the South

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Snow to ice. Gfs will most certainly be 1 to 3 degrees too warm here. Werbulbs in the upper 20s when precip arrives..almost no chance it warms as much as advertised with cold surface to 925mb temps. In fact, northern burbs would likely just be snow to sleet.

It doesn't do well with low level cold

 

[iGRXY]

Monster Ice storm

 

[NEGaweather]

Best GFS run for NEGa


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[EmersonGA]

For my Georgia Peeps

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks like February 2015.

 

[accu35]

There are gefs members with ice much further south this run.

 

[jrips27]

Monster Ice storm

That’a a full day later than all other guidance. It’s been consistently delaying the storm for some reason. Canadian is a huge outlier at the moment

 

[accu35]

Could be a onset ice for parts of the Deep South before the change over

 

[Usmeagle2005]

This run of the 12Z GFS definitely shifted the snow south into north MS more.

I need about another 30-50 miles but will take that.

 

[howboutthemdawgs]

Im a bit south of Franklin tn and my local forecast isn’t picking any of this up for fri-Sunday. All the models I’ve seen posted show us getting something. Are they just off or not confident?

 

[Parker]

I’m seeing about 8 members with much colder temps.

This should be a solid GEFS run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That snowpack above us is doing a lot of favors as much as we hate to hear it sometimes

 

[Chazwin]

I’ve seen this movie before. Doesn’t end well for me.

Interesting thing about that GFS run is that the 850s never go above 0c for you and me during the whole storm and the warmest surface temps get is 33.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It killed -- to write this

 

[SnowwxAtl]

That snowpack above us is doing a lot of favors as much as we hate to hear it sometimesView attachment 159915View attachment 159916

It will probably trend colder too

 

[Snowfan]

It killed -- to write this

You know things are getting interesting when Brad P. starts to notice.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The crude/surface maps for the Ukie make it look as if it left the cutoff behind, but the interesting thing to me is that the surface maps for now look warmer than the 0z was.

I'd typically take the low pressure positioning here if this setup wasn't as complicated as it was...

 

[Snowfan]

Im a bit south of Franklin tn and my local forecast isn’t picking any of this up for fri-Sunday. All the models I’ve seen posted show us getting something. Are they just off or not confident?

I'm sure when the models get more confident, they'll start showing it in the forecast.

 

[DopplerWx]

Can’t remember the last time we had such a legit snowpack to our immediate north before a storm like this, very intrigued to see how it affects our temps as we get closer to go time

 

[SnowedIn1]

I know this graphic below is for the 5th-7th storm....but the GEFS has every panel showing snow and/or mix trailing behind the rain....not sure it has been showing that on previous runs this high....but maybe this is giving us hope for the 9th-12th timeframe that the storm may hold more tricks yet to be shown...

 

[CaryWx]

Interesting thing about that GFS run is that the 850s never go above 0c for you and me during the whole storm and the warmest surface temps get is 33.

Do you know the 850mb low track thru NC with the 12z gfs run?

 

[CaryWx]

Can’t remember the last time we had such a legit snowpack to our immediate north before a storm like this, very intrigued to see how it affects our temps as we get closer to go time

I feel almost certain it will affect low level (2m) temps but not sure enough to avoid the zr region and higher levels