Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[Rain Cold]

We must take the current where it serves or lose our ventures.

 

[TheBatman]

Well, this looks promising.
View attachment 159605

Looks like it going to be a nice increase for some on the gefs.

 

[ColdCoreLow]

Looks like it going to be a nice increase for some on the gefs.

Looks like some big dogs in there! #7

 

[packfan98]

Looks like it going to be a nice increase for some on the gefs.

Yeah, I would think some of the members aren’t going to phase quite as much as the op. Turns them more into southern sliders or late bloomers.

 

[rburrel2]

Gefs gonna be pants bursting good for the upstate

 

[1300m]

Everything's fine.

 

[packfan98]

More consensus with this run at least. I’m sure they will all be wrong, but it’s happy hour.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Everything's fine.
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Texas stole our cold. And here I was thinking we had the angle of cold right this time

 

[1300m]

Texas stole our cold. And here I was thinking we had the angle of cold right this time

Hah we did until we didn't. GEFS is slowly stepping toward the EPS. Will it be a full cave or can they meet in the middle? Even that we likely know the answer to.

 

[Parker]

GEFS looks much better for those of us further south.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Everything's fine.
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My guess is that we have lost the cold and suppressed solutions that was skewing the mean. Looks like now there will be a storm. However, we need the cold press to stop retreating.

 

[NCSNOW]

This thing has trended 24- 36 hours latter arrival,than when we first began tracking. Thats a big reason why the cold is evacuating. That confluence cant hold forever. Just to much lollygaging back in the SW.

 

[Jessy89]

Anyone have the individual gfs ensembles?


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[rburrel2]

Everything's fine.
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Most of the solutions have been suppressed with no storm. This is expected.

 

[1300m]

Most of the solutions have been suppressed with no storm. This is expected.

The GEFS is trending toward the op GFS/Euro and EPS. This was and continues to be expected.

 

[dsaur]

backside snow at least for Birmingham and Atlanta
View attachment 159599

I've got sn, zr and rain in my point forecast now.

 

[NCSNOW]

My guess is that we have lost the cold and suppressed solutions that was skewing the mean. Looks like now there will be a storm. However, we need the cold press to stop retreating.

Our ( especially mine) best bet is to get a 2-3 inch thump on front,before sleet, and undoubtedly frzng rain kicks in. High country can get platsered with this look still. Espeacilly on back side if it decides to ride seaboard. Im officially out of wiggle room. The GFs and especially 12z Euro OP confirmed that today. If there winds up being a middle ground to be achieved between those 2 ops verse all othe ops, AI's, ensembles. Then its a huge win in my book.
( will have the 2cnd score of the season) and its on to the Jan17th ish chance.

 

[Mitch West]

There is definitely still members that are cold & less amped. But there are a lot of members that show something similar to the OP. There are also misses.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the 18z euro if finally bucking the less confluence trend

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Gefs gonna be pants bursting good for the upstate

I hope you mean you crapped your pants!!! I’m sick of seeing these types of comments!! Yes.. my pic!! That’s me! Been on forums over 20 years! Sick of some that have been clearly sexual references!

 

[jeremyt]

GEFS looks much better for those of us further south.

View attachment 159610

The only problem I see for y’all is that’s skewed by only a few members!

 

[Jessy89]

There is definitely still members that are cold & less amped. But there are a lot of members that show something similar to the OP. There are also misses. View attachment 159611

Thank you Mitch


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[Mitch West]

Final frame of the 18z Euro. Brutally cold rain across the Deep South.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Final frame of the 18z Euro. Brutally cold rain across the Deep South.
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This run was definitely an improvement from 12z synoptically. Everything was colder

 

[tazaroo]

My guess is that we have lost the cold and suppressed solutions that was skewing the mean. Looks like now there will be a storm. However, we need the cold press to stop retreating.

Also, didn't the storm speed back up a little and wouldn't that Also cause quicker height rises in the East just before the storm moves in with the loop shown here. Maybe I'm just wishcasting.

 

[JHS]

Also, didn't the storm speed back up a little and wouldn't that Also cause quicker height rises in the East just before the storm moves in with the loop shown here. Maybe I'm just wishcasting.

It has sped back up for sure. Now starting just after 7am here on the GFS.

 

[iGRXY]

Y'all take this whining and over sensitivity to the banter thread please

 

[packfan98]

Alright folks. We are dealing with the situation. Don’t add to it. Take any reasonable decisions to banter or private messages.

 

[JHS]

Final frame of the 18z Euro. Brutally cold rain across the Deep South.
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I could see this going on to become an icestorm for some of the CAD areas with those dewpoints. Probably rain along I-20 though.

 

[rburrel2]

The triangle folks must love the 18zeuro…so much less tilt. Was Gonna be a lot more sliding and less cutting.

 

[Rain Cold]

The triangle folks must love the 18zeuro…so much less tilt. Was Gonna be a lot more sliding and less cutting.

Visual

 

[tarheels2]

The GEFS is trending toward the op GFS/Euro and EPS. This was and continues to be expected.

Good or bad?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Final frame of the 18z Euro. Brutally cold rain across the Deep South.
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Even in the area under snowfall and where snow cover from the current storm would have fallen, surface temps are at or just above freezing. Per this run, ice is less of a concern as it's either cold enough aloft for snow, or it's mainly rain. Favored CAD regions may be the exception.

It's not a particularly impressive cold feed for this time of year.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Good or bad?

If it keeps headed toward the EPS, not good

 

[rburrel2]

Visual

I’m on my phone at the moment. But it’s a good look. A step towards the AI… and a change in the awful trend we had been experiencing. Gfs also stopped the trend. I think we’re(most of us) sitting in a good spot.

 

[iGRXY]

If we can hold to teen DPs here and single digit DPs on the VA/NC border, as precip arrives at sunset, that’s probably ice in the upstate and NC

 

[JHS]

If we can hold to teen DPs here and single digit DPs on the VA/NC border, as precip arrives at sunset, that’s probably ice in the upstate and NC

Agreed. If nothing else, we wet bulb down to around 29-31 in upstate SC.

 

[iGRXY]

T

Even in the area under snowfall and where snow cover from the current storm would have fallen, surface temps are at or just above freezing. Per this run, ice is less of a concern as it's either cold enough aloft for snow, or it's mainly rain. Favored CAD regions may be the exception.

It's not a particularly impressive cold feed for this time of year.

To be fair this this is also at the warmest part of the day so temps likely are in the mid 30’s by the time precip arrives

 

[KyloG]

This isn't going to be easy, going to need perfect timing for many of us...but...nice trends. Odds are this probably ends up more amped but it's what we got to look at.

 

[malak05]

GFS Ensembles are good bit different the OP and look much better and improved ALOT run to run