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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Anyone have the UKMET yet? I’m out and about and can’t look it up.
iGRXY
Member
going forward I think we just need to keep our eyes focused on the SE Canada Vortex. Everybody’s been so focused on out west we’ve lost sight on the most important thing, the cold air. You lose that and frankly out west doesn’t really matter.
It shouldn't be ruining anyone's day any more than the good runs make them excited. I'll continue to say it - GFS beyond D4-D5 is completely unreliable. ICON and UKMET have also both been really, really inconsistent as of late.
Just removing all emotions, this is not a look IMO that suggests we are trending towards a wintry threat in the southeast. We're losing the cold and the 12z GFS showed one of several possible outcomes, but I'd argue more and more of those possible outcomes are heading away from a widespread southeastern winter storm. We've got to have more northern stream injection to save this.
NCSNOW
Member
Say it again. When you have a low that closes off west of the Mississippi , your guranteed BL issues east of Apps.
NCSNOW
Member
iGRXY
Member
We’ve got 2 options here to keep the cold locked in. Get a slower more wound up 50/50 that holds heights in the east down or inject a N/S piece of energy into the S/W at the right time. One seems more realistic to me at this point. I’d be rooting for the confluence to over produce.
While trends aren’t great, long ways to go here. Lots of options still on the table with the 12z GEFS.
rburrel2
Member
Major improvements on the GEFS. Lots of snow hits. Snow mean going way up, Me likey.
tennessee storm
Member
I am really getting excited for the west Tennessee area .
NCSNOW
Member
It just seems like years ago, we’d have a nice snow event every couple of years. Now we’re going on 8 years since a decent snow around Atlanta. Just sucks. And this look is really not good at this juncture IMO. With continuedNW trend, we’ll likely be sitting around 40 degrees with rain. Maybe some sleet on the front end.
Bigedd09
Member
That looks like a great trend to me
So in conclusion right now are we looking at either a wound up nor'easter, a weakened southern slider and ots, or simply a more or less dry situation as a result of stranded energy left out west??
That's not much forecast confidence for 5-6 days out to me.
That's not much forecast confidence for 5-6 days out to me.
I really don't think this will be a complete whiff/dry...some sort of system is going to come.
NCSNOW
Member
When they dont agree, its been my observation,the op is the culprit out to lunch. Id fully expect same here. The GFS OP is the only full phase happy model ive seen. Have I missed a run? We getting partial phase solutions, but the 12z gfs op is only one that went full phas3d seaboard runner.
Interesting… WxBell definitely increased but nothing like that
Normally seeing this with just days out would excite most of us.
SV might count anything frozen as "snow".
iGRXY
Member
The only place that should feel solid right now is Texas. There’s really no reason to freak out. This thing is still a week away and 4-5 days from touching NA. To me nothing has honestly changed since this threat started outside of dropping an ULL in the southwest. Everything from rain, snow, ice, and dry and cold has an equal chance of happening
pretty neutral on this suite. focusing on gfs
the good is that most runs kicked baja low out a little quicker. the bad news is that the shortwave dug all the way to the southern tip of baja before going negative tilt and deepening. that deepening helps the ridge form upstream and raise temps here.
just to equivocate, something like this in the gulf would likely drag a cold front through the yucatan/cuba and there'd be comma head precip over the panhandle of florida. i think this is really rare and i generally think models trend away from rare things happening... they're rare for a reason.
at this point we need to root against downstream ridging in the gulf. i think that's achieved by either a full baja cutoff (looks less likely) or a faster, more progressive, weaker wave that either doesn't dig as hard or doesn't get that same negative tilt so quickly. i didn't think the cold would fold so quickly given the strength of the block; that's kind of what blocks are famous for, but what can you do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
all in all, i don't think the models have quite figured out where the nadir of the dig will be, nor where that happens, as evidenced by the low scooting east the last few runs, and i think most locales have skin in the game, except for maybe the coast and the i-10 corridor where the clock is getting close to midnight
the good is that most runs kicked baja low out a little quicker. the bad news is that the shortwave dug all the way to the southern tip of baja before going negative tilt and deepening. that deepening helps the ridge form upstream and raise temps here.
just to equivocate, something like this in the gulf would likely drag a cold front through the yucatan/cuba and there'd be comma head precip over the panhandle of florida. i think this is really rare and i generally think models trend away from rare things happening... they're rare for a reason.
at this point we need to root against downstream ridging in the gulf. i think that's achieved by either a full baja cutoff (looks less likely) or a faster, more progressive, weaker wave that either doesn't dig as hard or doesn't get that same negative tilt so quickly. i didn't think the cold would fold so quickly given the strength of the block; that's kind of what blocks are famous for, but what can you do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
all in all, i don't think the models have quite figured out where the nadir of the dig will be, nor where that happens, as evidenced by the low scooting east the last few runs, and i think most locales have skin in the game, except for maybe the coast and the i-10 corridor where the clock is getting close to midnight
We are nowhere close to having a system we can latch on to. Even at 5-7 days, the run-to-run variance continues to be extremely high.
Batman36
Member
After all of the models runs that have been displayed showing anything from a board wide snowstorm, to squashed suppression, to a warm nose causing rain, to multiple combinations of the above, to say it is over from 7 days out based on the evidence in front of us is just hard to fathom......Had to come out of lurking to comment on this one.Looks like rain for most everyone in the deep south. I think its about over guys
JLL1973
Member
You should be. Your up there by I40 that’s where most of hits come in the midsouth
Makeitsnow
Member
Probably under done. On average with sufficient dewpoint depressions and cold enough 950mb to surface temps the average error is 1 to 3 degrees too warm. Based on what I see it seems reasonable it maybe up to 3 degrees too warm. So the freezing rain potential is higher than it's advertising imo.
This is going to be close
Six Mile Wx
Member
Hope we get some northern stream injection of cold air.
Meh
MichaelJ
Member
BL temps will end up being the killer, too amped will cause height rises ahead of and push everybody south of Mid Virginia too warm to have snow. It is possible in the favored CAD areas that it will start briefly as Sleet but will change pretty quickly to a cold rain. South of NC looks awful I am afraid. Still some time to throw a curve at us but I see the fat lady is approaching the stage
Man that is a large snowfall footprint to the north
Gonna take a pattern change to bring us anything. The outcome of this weekends storm will likely be on repeat. Better than heat. But the pattern is close but no cigar for those around Charlotte south.
tennessee storm
Member
Amped up is big for northern midsouth
What did we do to deserve this
Stormlover
Member
Kuchera is quite a bit lower near the boundary
