Yes usually Canadian is the coldest on temps also.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC looks way better than the GFS
i think that the most underrated thing to look at is the PNW ridge. it was much weaker this run. the ridge has a lot of influence on how much that piece digs and a weaker ridge means less digging.
there's a certain quality to that gfs run that really pissed me off. big hit in spite of never having its act together
A blend of the two for our areas would work.
NCSNOW
Member
The deeper this thing can get in the NE GOM, the more cold air it will pull down an help folks out
Snowflowxxl
Member
We are still way too far out for me to be wanting to see anything but suppressed looks. Been burned a million times.
I really disregard the GFS surface output almost always. And frankly, we shouldn't put any stock into it's H5 output beyond about D4-5 lol. I feel like this winter is really revealing just how bad it is in many areas.
NCSNOW
Member
UKMET futher east with sw wave
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
= Fouling off
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Ukie is very warm. All rain for most.
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Never seen the blue shazam colors on on h5 before.
About the fastest pressure drops you will see with winter storms in the SE is a drop of 10mb in 6 hours - so yeah, that was rapid deepening. Here, the Superstorm pressure drop
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's improved over 12Z. Cold is further south.
This entire setup is weird to me. Usually to get a big storm, we need one of two things.
1. A dominant northern stream energy that picks up southern energy, digs, and cuts off. (January 2000, January 2002)
2. A suppressed dominant southern low that is fed cold air from an exiting SE Canada low (December 2018, February 2004)
This setup relies on two dominant northern and southern pieces phasing at the same time, seperate from our cold source ( the SE Canada low).
Crazier things have happened, and needles can be threaded, but this setup raises a lot of red flags in my mind. I have a hard time buying the possibility of a big storm.
If you all can think of any analogs where this setup has worked, let me know.
1. A dominant northern stream energy that picks up southern energy, digs, and cuts off. (January 2000, January 2002)
2. A suppressed dominant southern low that is fed cold air from an exiting SE Canada low (December 2018, February 2004)
This setup relies on two dominant northern and southern pieces phasing at the same time, seperate from our cold source ( the SE Canada low).
Crazier things have happened, and needles can be threaded, but this setup raises a lot of red flags in my mind. I have a hard time buying the possibility of a big storm.
If you all can think of any analogs where this setup has worked, let me know.
gefs doesn't look great to me, the mean brings the ull further into baja
That's the type of dynamics that could be in play here. That's why I said before, if 2-4" is all we can muster out of this, it will be one heckuva a loss of potential and 2-4" is going to be hard for me to take as a consolation prize. There are many events where squeezing out an extra inch or two feels like you've scaled Everest, this ain't one of them.About the fastest pressure drops you will see with winter storms in the SE is a drop of 10mb in 6 hours - so yeah, that was rapid deepening. Here, the Superstorm pressure drop
I said it in jest earlier but keeping the Icon and Canadian in the suppressed camp at 12z earlier was critical. Kept us alive. CMC staying in that camp tonight is a win as well. Our spread needs to remain as south as possible through the weekend. We ain’t cooked. We cooking
iGRXY
Member
Smh
Some nice GEFS members.
Just like @Jimmy Hypocracy been saying, the misses are “good” misses. You’d always rather be suppressed if you’re not bullseye at this range
gefs looks more SW with the Baja low but looks like on the mean anyway it’s playing nicer with the northern stream
iGRXY
Member
Wonder how things change down stream because at 105 it's got the shortwave stronger
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing some division in camps more, and hopefully we can see a more dominant storm prevail on members.
rburrel2
Member
Yep, baby steps here on the GEFS. It's going to be better than 18z with a few more hits.
UKMet is kind of bad in all ways. Misses the phase with baja wave and wave digging into the S Plains is on the weak side, and it's warm across the south
rburrel2
Member
And it still drops some snow in N. GA/Upstate SC on the last panel. I'll take it.UKMet is kind of bad in all ways. Misses the phase with baja wave and wave digging into the S Plains is on the weak side, and it's warm across the south
I'm not sure I'm buying what the 00z UKMET was selling. It sure looked like it should have phased with the ull.UKMet is kind of bad in all ways. Misses the phase with baja wave and wave digging into the S Plains is on the weak side, and it's warm across the south
Put all the operational models and ensemble members into the bouncycorn model blender though, and we have something to keep trackingUKMet is kind of bad in all ways. Misses the phase with baja wave and wave digging into the S Plains is on the weak side, and it's warm across the south
Avalanche
Member
I guess it’s like 1300 said earlier. Nice little storm won’t please many people when the potential is there for something major.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Most of us haven’t seen an inch in 7 years. We will take a little storm
Y’all posted this earlier but I think it’s a point to be made again
