Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[Pops]

We can work with that


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Looking pretty amped

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That run to run change on the GFS was wild

 

[rburrel2]

Looks like the cut off was a tad too far out ahead of the energy diving down the backside on the icon... dang. I'll take though b/c I'm more worried about the cut off being left behind.

 

[Stormdoc]

We can work with that


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I think more than watching the Baja low, we need to be checking the angle at which that northern energy dives in. As the icon shows, we need it to be moving more north to south rather than west to east, this allows it to push, or “back slap” that low east.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Right where we want it carry on

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 159001

Right where we want it carry on

Satisfactory start to 12z

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 159001

Right where we want it carry on

Yep. Basically was non existent at 0Z so big step in right direction.

 

[Jan88]

Looking pretty amped

Kicking east a lot quicker than the 6z gfs

 

[Mahomeless]

ICON is a thing of beauty this far out and compared to its previous self......

 

[JLL1973]

woke up this morning only to see the models go in an entirely different direction . for my area anyway. Got to love weather

 

[Pops]

woke up this morning only to see the models go in an entirely different direction . for my area anyway. Got to love weather

Wouldn’t say it’s over but you right was looking great last night still time

 

[Webberweather53]

The ICON was so close to a big dog here in NM

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

i think the euro ai is my favorite solution simply because it moves the ull a little faster. its runs show stronger storms because the northern stream trough is able to scrape off some of the vorticity from the ull better than other models show. i am rooting for solutions that make that sucker weaker and quicker today.

amped worries... look at this point i'm way more worried about no storm. that's been our fail point the last few years and at this juncture i think having to worry about temps would be a luxury... let's not put the cart before the horse. this is also a background state that's hard for storms to "get more amplified" given the longwave pattern. there's no southeast ridge... there's a big blocking 50/50 low... what is the mechanism for something to get to amplified? the euro ai is spooky but i think it's moreso a function of the latitude it progs the phase at (similar to the 1/6 storm) and it moves laterally from there. keyword being laterally... it doesn't cut.

jim mora voice: "Cutting? Don't talk about—Cutting?! You kidding me? Cutting?! I just hope we can get a storm! Another storm!"

other mets more privy can correct me if i'm wrong but i think the whole point of using ai dark magic with these models is so it has a mechanism to learn from it's previous errors. maybe? anyway if the euro truly has a "leave the energy" bias you would think that how the euro ai is built would try to correct it. anyway it has an encouraging trend below. today i'm cautiously optimistic and we could yet see some big swings but this period is sneaking into the mid range a little faster than people realize.
View attachment 158990

This is a good post and we certainly need a storm there if we're going to get snow. But, one thing I have seen consistently is that, outside of good elevation, cold is always a concern; ALWAYS. If Jan 88 or Jan 2011 had become over amplified temps would have been an issue with those too. We need a storm, yes; but we need one that doesn't strengthen too much or there will be temp issues. Hence the concerns about over-amping.

 

[Mitch West]

This is a good post and we certainly need a storm there if we're going to get snow. But, one thing I have seen consistently is that, outside of good elevation, cold is always a concern; ALWAYS. If Jan 88 or Jan 2011 had become over amplified temps would have been an issue with those too. We need a storm, yes; but we need one that doesn't strengthen too much or there will be temp issues. Hence the concerns about over-amping.

We need a happy medium. And a happy medium in the South is a miracle. So we need something North or South of a miracle.

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 159001

Right where we want it carry on

Is there energy hung back in northern Mex.?

 

[malak05]

woke up this morning only to see the models go in an entirely different direction . for my area anyway. Got to love weather

Wouldn't say the Models went all away... Actually the Euro/ICON/CMC all move more toward the past several day trend GFS Ops/Ensembles/AI showed and then GFS Ops went out to lunch specifically on the 6z run and didn't really have support in the ensembles.

 

[Mahomeless]

The ICON was so close to a big dog here in NM

...and that's where it starts if you want a big dog in the deep south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We mad at what the Icon just did?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

More stream interaction through hour 72 this run for GFS

 

[Webberweather53]

We mad at what the Icon just did? View attachment 159002

Idk about everyone else, but I’m not !

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Wouldn't say the Models went all away... Actually the Euro/ICON/CMC all move more toward the past several day trend GFS Ops/Ensembles/AI showed and then GFS Ops went out to lunch specifically on the 6z run and didn't really have support in the ensembles.

It's a lot different on what it takes to get a good storm for even you compared to someplace near Memphis.

The ICON has started the 12z well for the SE closer to the coast, not the mid south.

 

[iGRXY]

Hopefully we are already seeing the GFS correcting with S/W dropping down California.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 159006
Hopefully we are already seeing the GFS correcting with S/W dropping down California.

N/S a little stronger maybe


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[beanskip]

At 96 hours, looking more like 6z than 0z.
EDIT: But a bit better at 102.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

To my extremely untrained eye, it’s all about where this wave diving in out of the NW collides with our piece of energy near the Baja. The quicker it lites that fuse the quicker it kicks east.

 

[malak05]

The SW a little further east at frame 126 compared to 06z more like yesterdays runs

 

[DixieBlizzard]

To my extremely untrained eye, it’s all about where this wave diving in out of the NW collides with our piece of energy near the Baja. The quicker it lites that fuse the quicker it kicks east. View attachment 159007

That's the old stovepipe benchmark, yes?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looks to be identical placement of SW to the 0Z run but stronger at hour 132

 

[iGRXY]

 

[jackendrickwx]

Looks to be identical placement of SW to the 0Z run but stronger at hour 132

Just about to say that.

 

[malak05]

Frame 141 Snow breaking out over parts of Texas it was bone dry at that time on the 6z run

 

[Mitch West]

Energy at hour 123 is better than 06z but a tick worse than 00z.

 

[beanskip]

Started out looking more like 6z, but quickly reverted back to a more 0z like appearance, thankfully .

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That's the old stovepipe benchmark, yes?

If we can get that north to south quickly diving wave orientation

 

[jackendrickwx]

Energy coming down just east of that mark, a bit stronger than 0z

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Quite a bit further NE with the SW at 138. NS screaming down from the Nw

 

[Bigedd09]

Much stronger and further north this run

 

[wow]

The confluence over the east has really trended south over the last few runs.. that's certainly playing a big part as well

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Started out looking more like 6z, but quickly reverted back to a more 0z like appearance, thankfully .

However both the kicker and baja wave are north of 00z. Let’s just see what it does though

 

[Bigedd09]

It may cut this run