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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Appears to be less mixing issues too. At face value. I would take that look and hope for no more amping.
 
In fairness, I don’t think the Euro run is the direction that any of us want to go in. It dropped the northern stream down from North Dakota to Tennessee and missed 80-90% of the Baja wave. I know many are interested in solutions that stay cold and south, but that’s not the best way to go about it. Very limited storm threat / precip amount potential in that scenario

Maybe an interesting battle going on at the moment from the formidable duo from yester-year (Euro / UKMet) vs. the new and young AI kids on the block (Euro AI / GFS Graphcast)
 
griteater said:
In fairness, I don’t think the Euro run is the direction that any of us want to go in. It dropped the northern stream down from North Dakota to Tennessee and missed 80-90% of the Baja wave. I know many are interested in solutions that stay cold and south, but that’s not the best way to go about it. Very limited storm threat / precip amount potential in that scenario

Maybe an interesting battle going on at the moment from the formidable duo from yester-year (Euro / UKMet) vs. the new and young AI kids on the block (Euro AI / GFS Graphcast)
Click to expand...
Yeah was just looking at the 500mb vort map at 198. They really aren’t very similar. GFS is on topIMG_2053.pngIMG_2052.png
 
Yes. But how would we best accomplish that, without having the crazy amplification and sacrificing the cold? WAA is a big concern, especially after seeing the earlier GFS run.
 
griteater said:
In fairness, I don’t think the Euro run is the direction that any of us want to go in. It dropped the northern stream down from North Dakota to Tennessee and missed 80-90% of the Baja wave. I know many are interested in solutions that stay cold and south, but that’s not the best way to go about it. Very limited storm threat / precip amount potential in that scenario

Maybe an interesting battle going on at the moment from the formidable duo from yester-year (Euro / UKMet) vs. the new and young AI kids on the block (Euro AI / GFS Graphcast)
Click to expand...
We've seen this battle a few times during 2024. 9/10 times, the AI guidance reigns supreme..
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Yes. But how would we best accomplish that, without having the crazy amplification and sacrificing the cold? WAA is a big concern, especially after seeing the earlier GFS run.
Click to expand...
For Jackson to Columbia, I think you’d want to see a partial phase with waviness coming on out and running west to east. Or you go with a more phased solution that has improved 50/50 confluence out front that keeps everything from climbing too far north
 
I was looking more at the move from last night's 0z Euro to this one. Last night it spun off the Baja for days on end and blew tumble weeds across the south it was so dry. The Euro seems to always he slow to move, so the last two runs have been pretty big shifts by its standards.
 
I really do think we run the risk of an overrunning type scenario. Take the 00z Euro for instance, the new run had the precip shield further north and the trough a bit more east, so to me that would allow for more warm air to come in at the mid levels. Miller A coastal bomb, miller B overrunning as some have eluded to is on the table ( suppression is becoming less likely imo) just really depends on how much cold air we have to deal with in the northern stream after the first storm this weekend/early next week. Timing will be another issue, some models are faster and some slower with the progression. Models are slowly moving toward some type of winter storm in the south, I’ll give it that. The details are TBD and we won’t know for sure for several days how this storm shakes out.


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