iGRXY
Member
CMC is another gulf coast special
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Tokenfreak
Member
What a dud just mainly freezing rain for SC
wow
Member
It's a light to mod snow event on the north side of the storm
NCSNOW
Member
this is generally my fear.
like the moab ull is fun and it's cool to *think* about but the meteorological issue is that a ull that big and strong is going be sloooooowwww. we have more than enough energy. i would sacrifice some of the strength of this thing to kick it out sooner and a little more intact in a heartbeat.
this will produce a swath of 4-8 inches on the clowns and it will feel like a victory but man it can be a whole lot more if we can get a cleaner vort max. fortunately still a lot of time to figure things out, but less than you'd think- we're within 4 days of this being a real entity on the southwest coast
like the moab ull is fun and it's cool to *think* about but the meteorological issue is that a ull that big and strong is going be sloooooowwww. we have more than enough energy. i would sacrifice some of the strength of this thing to kick it out sooner and a little more intact in a heartbeat.
this will produce a swath of 4-8 inches on the clowns and it will feel like a victory but man it can be a whole lot more if we can get a cleaner vort max. fortunately still a lot of time to figure things out, but less than you'd think- we're within 4 days of this being a real entity on the southwest coast
Honestly prefer this look over GFS at this stage. Allows more wiggle room
Kind of annoying that the storm is about a day slower compared to the 6z run this morning. So we really didn’t get any closer 
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’ll take the cmc solution over the GFS all day
Bigedd09
Member
0z Canadian a good bit north of 12z
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian a nice gulf,se coast slider
And leaves a full plate on the table to rot away in el sugundo
And leaves a full plate on the table to rot away in el sugundo
Also about a day quicker compared to the GFS
Repeat after me, GFS bad, this good.
NWMSGuy
Member
That was a great run for the Mid-South. Will be interesting to see if the GEFS show any support.
Let's try not to get too dejected here. I mean, just a few runs ago, it was cold and dry. The model isn't going to go from cold and dry to 3' of snow in one run.
Give it time. The progress is great. Now we have multi-model support for a winter storm. A few inches of snow, some sleet and ZR to the Gulf, followed by cold temps is a pretty major winter storm.
There is still the potential for a high-end event here. We're going to see a big dog soon. And there are probably going to be more chances after this, too.
Enjoy the ride, folks. For the last few years, the rides have been closed.
Give it time. The progress is great. Now we have multi-model support for a winter storm. A few inches of snow, some sleet and ZR to the Gulf, followed by cold temps is a pretty major winter storm.
There is still the potential for a high-end event here. We're going to see a big dog soon. And there are probably going to be more chances after this, too.
Enjoy the ride, folks. For the last few years, the rides have been closed.
Bigedd09
Member
I Still think the GFS is an outlier for now
Not really a day slower. Maybe 6-12 hours slower. It was took longer for everything to kick in the system. Timing will change multiple times until we get 2-3 days out.Kind of annoying that the storm is about a day slower compared to the 6z run this morning. So we really didn’t get any closer
The 00z GFS has trouble kicking the Baja wave eastward due to the pesky shortwave in the Pacific Northwest. The western ridge breaks down and prevents the wave from tilting negatively, which would otherwise lead to a major coastal. That happened in January 2011 and concerns those East of the Appalachians. Those to the west can survive off of simply an amped-up shortwave.
Dang straight. I don't think we are even processing what is being shown along the Gulf Coast. If these current solutions are already creating these kind of dynamics and putting this out that far south...the theoretical ceiling is high if this thing amps up (quite likely IMO).
That huge storm and this is it?
What happened to the supposedly arctic air mass we were expecting? Trending away from -EPO? Trends are looking more amped run to run (save for the ICON). It is worrisome seeing all the freezing rain being depicted. Hoping over next few days we can trend back to a more snowier result for the whole board. Perhaps once we get better sampling, it will yield to a more favorable outcome.
it’s funny because the CMC is slowly but surely trending to the other solutions at H5 (note the trend with the Baja wave and more wave separation from the Midwest N/S wave and the main SE Canada vortex) 
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 309
- Reaction score
- 671
What ACTUALLY happens with Sunday’s storm has everything to do with what could happen to this one.. right now suppression vs northern trends are all very plausible.. I can’t wait for someone to say “we/ya’ll got NAMed!!”
one other thing caught my attention
the trough in the midwest is trending southwest and it wouldn't take many more shifts like this to potentially be a northern stream player of some degree, although it might just be a product of the general wave train shifting west some
lot of game left
the trough in the midwest is trending southwest and it wouldn't take many more shifts like this to potentially be a northern stream player of some degree, although it might just be a product of the general wave train shifting west some
lot of game left
So what happens if it amps up? Larger snow path/bigget storm??
This feature has resulted in notable (and notoriously monster phases in the past) in this current case it helps with our cold feed atm
wow
Member
Noticed that too. Another piece of this huge puzzle. If that trend continues, that'll keep the s/w over SW Canada from pulling our trough back. Injecting arctic wave energy will crash the height field, HP would build ahead of it and really bomb out over the gulf. The highest quality weather porn.
That was what the pinnacle run did (12/29 0Z Euro run)
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet at what 4 contours. Could tell it was gonna bury it early in run
It’s funny, a very similar setup a couple days later on the GFS (worth noting the GEFS is biting on another one) but that’s for another time 
Yeah UKMET buries this thing and sends it back west, only model to still show this solution now 
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet 0z is the first time ive seen our sw get buried in a while. Looked way out of whack as early as 96hrs with west coast orientation, way to posotive
wow
Member
Are there statistics on how often cutoff lows of this caliber shown on forecast models in winter actually verify? I'm curious...
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I don't think we want it to amp too much; that usually results in too much WAA or a cut and that's a no go for most. Only way that would work is with a super strong confluence but we're already seeing mixing issues. Our best storms tend to be overrunning storms with entrenched cold and lows around 1006 to 1010 neighborhood, with a track just off the gulf coast.
But this thing has a lot of possibilities and we're going to see a lot of different solutions going forward. Could be anything from a nothing burger to a monster but probably in between.
RDUHeatIsland
Member
UK also just shifted the 5/7 storm 100 miles south. Model's drunk
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah we want a lot of over running in the mid and deep south then the low not really cranking until it gets off the SE coast to get central and eastern SC/NC. Anything with the surface low over or on land anywhere north of Florida will suck.
So many variables, energy flying around, yielding all sorts of results. The players are on the field and that is the most important aspect. Helluva roller coaster ride. But I would expect no less living here in the Southeast, at this time of the year.
Yeah so, don’t bother looking at the GEFS.
Don’t be Debbie downer. So far haven’t really see Much change in GEFS. Only out to 168 hours.
That is my point. You don’t really get any more clarity in really any direction from previous runs.
Meh, gotta look at the glass half full. Getting more support from the other models. Just wait till the 12z runs today and definitely Saturday. It’s all good!!