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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Ward Cleaver said:
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I’m supposed to fly from GSO to DFW early Saturday morning. So as a result, I’ve been keeping an eye on this storm. Assuming my flight isn’t delayed or cancelled, I wonder how quickly the DFW metro can get the roads into decent shape.

I really was not expecting to have to fly to Texas to see the biggest winter storm I’ve seen in around six years. LOL!
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If this happens the way it's portrayed it will close down a good portion of the metroplex for 3 days to a week.
Possibly longer depending upon daily Max's after the snow.
Remember it's a southern city with little year to year experience dealing with these types of storms and the amount that are being predicted is very very rare!
On top of some of the highest interchange bridges I've & exchanges I've personally ever seen!
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 160423
I'm not even going to think about doing a first call on totals until Wednesday. But just my first idea at least on where I think as of now the P-Types are looking like. I still think we trend to a bit more precip as a general consensus. Along and north of 85 and east of 77 I feel more confident that in snow especially in the beginning. South and east of there I think we are looking at more mix bag. Again this can easily change as we are 3-4 days left with changes to what feels like every run.
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I honestly believe it’s gonna start off as a very good thump of snow all the way down to greenwood. And could possibly hold out for a longer time above that. That CAD is gonna mean business.
 
SimeonNC said:
Everyone should take note of the performance of the wedge today in NC. Was originally forecasted to reach the 50s today, warmest I got was 41.1.

Imagine what the CAD could look like with even colder air preceding, a weak high to our north and a snow pack come Friday/Saturday.
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Yet it underperformed in my area. Forecast was about 46 or 47 but shot up to 51 when the sun came out. Where they hold, wedges can overperform, where they break they underperform. The idea that wedges always overperform is probably the biggest myth I see on the board; there's too many times when they don't.
 
jrips27 said:
FFC Afternoon Disco
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025

Key Messages:

-Temps will fall to near 10 degrees below normal through the
long term.

-Confidence is pretty high that we`ll some kind of precip. Friday
and into Saturday, but what type is still up in the air.

Forecast:

Cold will remain in place as the long term picks up on Thursday.
Highs will be in the low 40s and upper 30s with overnight lows in
the low 20s and possibly some teens in the mountains. Breezy NW
winds will make it feel colder during the day with widespread
windchill in the teens for much of the metro area and northwards.

By Friday afternoon a low out of the SW is expected to push up along
the Gulf Coast brining our next round of precipitation. Timing is
going to be the big issue with getting the wx element correct here.
As it currently stands, both the GFS and Euro favor an
evening/overnight event in which temperatures could drop below
freezing. If that`s the case, the I-20 corridor would likely see a
rain snow mix while northern GA sees all snow. Some of that mix will
likely change to snow during the overnight hours, though the system
appears to be in a hurry to get outta here which means little to no
accumulations expected. As far as northern GA goes, accumulations
less than an inch seem to be most likely, though areas of higher
elevation in NE Georgia could see 1 to 3 inches.

As the system moves out, temperatures look like they might try and
rebound a little which highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s as we
kick off the start of next week.

The most important take away here is there is still plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast. While the tracks may be in agreement
small changes in timing and mid layer temperature will drastically
change the precipitation type. Please continue to monitor the up
coming updates for the latest information.
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I understand being conservative but at least admit you are being so because you are too worried about making a call so soon. Making no mention of of the threat of ice in north ga seems questionable at best. And gfs and Canadian aren't anywhere close to 50s next week.
ChattaVOL said:
Glenn Burns and his secret model:

Here we go!
1. We have the arctic air in place Friday
2. Low pressure in the emerges from the
Gulf of Mexico and hurls moisture into
the cold air
4. Result will be snow, wintry mix, and rain
5. On average 1-3 inches for north Georgia
and a huge drop off for areas south of
I-20. Normally I would not show totals
this far out but I have access to
computer models no one else has and
the skill they have is incredible
6. Let’s also remember there is a HUGE
difference between SNOWFALL and
SNOW ACCUMULATION. Although it
Is cold the average ground temp,
according to the UGA weather
Station was 50 degrees 3 days ago.
There will also besome rain mixed in
so 1-3” might fall, maybe 1 -1.5”
would be the actual accumulation.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: HIGH
a787a7cdfbfd7bb2353cf58abd93785a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone uatalk
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Is that a real map he posted? There is no rational or logical reason for his amounts. This can't be real..is it?
 
Makeitsnow said:
I understand being conservative but at least admit you are being so because you are too worried about making a call so soon. Making no mention of of the threat of ice in north ga seems questionable at best. And gfs and Canadian aren't anywhere close to 50s next week.

Is that a real map he posted? There is no rational or logical reason for his amounts. This can't be real..is it?
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Yep 😆

1736197757997.png
 
From the Memphis afternoon AFD regarding this storm:

Looking towards the end of the week, a winter storm is becoming
more likely to impact the Midsouth Thursday evening through
Friday. Confidence has increased regarding the cutoff low phasing
with a shortwave trough Thursday night, which would deepen a low
along the Gulf Coast on the preexisting temperature gradient.
Broad ascent from upper diffluence and insentropic lift over a
cold air mass will support a large swath of wintry precipitation
late Thursday through Friday. Although four days out, there is
good consistency between ensembles and Dprog/Dt in the timing and
placement of QPF. The main uncertainty still remains where the
surface freezing line will exist and how shallow the cold airmass
will be. The EURO/GFS/NBM show the transition zone somewhere in
North Mississippi, but have discrepancies in the areal coverage of
both freezing rain and sleet. Places near and north of the
Tennessee/Mississippi border, however, are forecast to have the
greatest chance of accumulating snow. It is still too early for
exact snowfall/ice totals given the omnipresent uncertainty this
far out in a winter weather setup. Nonetheless, it does appear
likely that areas that do see consistent snowfall will get at
least 3 inches. Ice accumulations are even harder to pinpoint but
some places will likely see some depending on where the transition
zone sets up.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yet it underperformed in my area. Forecast was about 46 or 47 but shot up to 51 when the sun came out. Where they hold, wedges can overperform, where they break they underperform. The idea that wedges always overperform is probably the biggest myth I see on the board; there's too many times when they don't.
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It depends where your location is. The gold standard for CAD in South Carolina is along and east of hwy 25 in Greenville county. Spartanburg and cherokee counties almost always over perform and hold out longer. It's currently 44 here
 
Well the ICON has been one of the few today still showing a more northern solutions it just took a steps toward other models trending better in Temp profiles and low orientation. Still one of the more aggressive ones with types of precipitation.
 
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