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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

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Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

Areas affected...New Jersey coastal areas...central and eastern Long
Island...and parts of southeastern New England coastal areas

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 290501Z - 290900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue to develop near northern Mid
Atlantic into southeastern New England coastal areas, including much
of Long Island, through 3-5 AM EST. Heaviest snow rates up to 2
inches per hour may focus near southern New Jersey coastal areas
through around 1-3 AM. Increasing, gusting surface winds probably
will lead to increased potential for reduced visibilities, blowing
and drifting of snow toward daybreak.

DISCUSSION...The offshore surface cyclone is beginning to deepen
more rapidly, and recent runs of the Rapid Refresh indicate 2-3 mb
per hour deepening may continue into the 09-10Z time frame before
slowing a bit. To the northwest of the northward migrating center,
a coinciding tightening of the surface pressure gradient is forecast
across southeastern New England coastal areas and Long Island into
southern New Jersey. This will be accompanied by strengthening
east-northeasterly to northeasterly low-level wind fields, including
an intensifying jet around 850 mb (to 40-50 kt) by 10Z, and further
strengthening thereafter.

Large-scale ascent, aided by strengthening lower/mid tropospheric
frontogenetic forcing, near the northwestern periphery of a plume of
moistening air (including precipitable water increasing to around
.5+ inches) near coastal areas, appears likely to maintain moderate
to heavy snow rates generally up to around 1 inch per hour. Rapid
Refresh forecast soundings suggest that, in response to stronger
frontogentic forcing in the 700-500 mb layer, lift may become
maximized in the dendritic growth zone across southern New Jersey
coastal areas (around Atlantic City) through 06-08Z, possibly
supporting hourly snow rates on the order of 1.5-2 inches.

Although the snow may be relatively "heavy and wet", as surface
winds begin to strengthen and gust in excess of 35-40+ kt
overnight, blowing and drifting of snow, along with occasionally
sharply reduced visibilities, will become an increasing concern
toward daybreak.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2022

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The snow and wind is picking up here. Went for a walk to clear my head and it went from barely noticeable flurries to a flizzard.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
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