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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

LovingGulfLows said:
I looked at the latest HRRR run and to me, it seems more impressed at the snow shower activity during the late morning hours tomorrow rather than during the night, particularly around 9-12 tomorrow. We'll see though.
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That’s because the showers are convective, so they need the sun to be out to fuel it
 
The ground truth over TN is promising... I wonder why, however, the HRRR is the only model that has more than one stray snow shower tailing the front over NC?

Run after run, other models just aren’t seeing it. Look at 20z on the HRRR, then load up any of the following: RGEM, WRF-ARW, NMM, 3km NAM and compare at 20z...

All show nothing — however, ALL have the snow showers over TN that are verifying at this time. So it’s not like these models missed the TN cold core snows, they’ve been showing them.

I’d like to see other mesoscale models pick up on the snow but we are basically close to nowcast at this point.
 
0Z HRRR for 11 tonight holding firm on the idea of a brief period of snow/sleet in the Triad.

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Poimen said:
I think any accumulation in the Triad is highly unlikely. We'll be lucky to have a few flakes before it ends. (In my opinion at least). I'd be more than happy to eat crow though!
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Yeah it's definitely over amped. I'd just like to see some snow flakes too. Hopefully tomorrow will work out

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