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Pattern NC Only Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I'm not sure. It does that east to west stuff quite a bit lately. I wouldn't hate it but seems inpossible
Derekrsmith87
Member
Looks like it’s happening. Something popped in Alamance
Shaggy
Member
Just recorded 2 observations at 79 degrees before going back up to 80. Those were the first two observations below 80 since 6:55am on the 18th so a full 48 hours without going below 80 degrees. I hate summer.
Glad to have a south wind back maybe I'll get a storm today
Shaggy
Member
Certainly more comfortable this morning compared to the last 3. Still not optimistic about rain chances cause it's always 3 to 4 days away
I think the general idea right now is that by the weekend some folks are going to get mogged, unfortunately it doesnt look like everyone does so good luck.
Lol
9 inches vs. 1 inch in MBY, lol. These models.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Hope the gfs is right till Thursday night after that it can rain as much as it wants
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is one of the cases where I would go with the GFS as far as rain totals through Sunday. The Euro totals would be great for eating away the rainfall deficit that most of us have but I don't buy close to 10 inches of rain falling in southern Wake County in a week unless a tropical system was producing those totals.
BHS1975
Member
Stalled front is another way.
BHS1975
Member
Pretty juiced
This, this is the one.... gotta be
Shaggy
Member
Looks good for you this time. Not sure how yall are up there but I've seen some pine tree death recently around here. We all need a bunch of gullywashers
This is a good one!! Love it
That's true but it's rare for that to happen. Most stalled fronts usually wash out before that happens.
Congrats man. I know you've been on the outside looking in a lot lately, and you've had to put up with some of us in more populated areas harping about it. (some more than others
)Got a fairly nice pouring here the past 15 minutes BTW. Not as much as you, but I ain't complaining.
Ill never understand how it can be in the mid 90s with dews near 80 and not rain
I'm approaching my month total today
Whoa
Downeastnc
Member
Pretty legit
1.75 still ripping. Gonna make a run at most rain in a month since last July
SuperNET
Member
Wpc would verify better if they just put wake and johnston in these discos it doesn't rain like that most other locations
Back to near 0% rain chances and temps around 100 tomorrow
Indeed!
The historic Nashville, TN, floods of 5/1-2/2010 were the result of a stationary front:
According to the Memphis Office of the National Weather Service:
A significant weather system brought very heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from Saturday, May 1 through Sunday morning, May 2. A stalled frontal boundary coupled with very moist air streaming northward from the Gulf set the stage for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Many locations along the I-40 corridor across western and middle Tennessee reported in excess of 10 to 15 inches, with some locations receiving up to 20 inches according to Doppler weather radar estimates.[5]
Several rainfall records in the Nashville area were broken during the rain event. 13.57 inches (345 mm) fell during the two-day period of May 1–2, doubling the record of 6.68 inches (170 mm) set in September 1979 during the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Frederic.
2010 Tennessee floods - Wikipedia
Several weeks in advance, I had planned with some friends my first trip ever to Nashville. I was living in Dunwoody, GA, at the time. However, after seeing many model runs several days in advance suggesting a washout of that weekend, it was a very easy decision for me to suggest we cancel our reservations/the trip and thus we called it off. Whew!!! The hotel we were going to stay at was flooded badly (I think into the first floor), which would have totaled the car! Who knows what else would have happened?
@Bham 99
At this point it's not impossible my July rain total will match my jan- June total
Fog, steady rain, mid 70s, wen fall
Downeastnc
Member
About as high as you will ever see pwats outside of a landfalling tropical system.
The sky is falling.
Latest named storm reminds me of this blast from the past July 96. (also named Bertha)
One of the first landfalling NC TCs I remember tracking. No one remembers it much now since Fran came around later in the season. 1996 was a fun year to track weather around here. It spoiled me for years after that.
One of the first landfalling NC TCs I remember tracking. No one remembers it much now since Fran came around later in the season. 1996 was a fun year to track weather around here. It spoiled me for years after that.
Downeastnc
Member
Actually got in a semi clear eye in this one...peak wind gust was close to 90ish i think. My first real cane.
AFD is a good read. Hope to cash in late tonight through wed pm over this way, as it looks like the front is gonna be to my south. Cooler air will be nice, but need the rain first and foremost.
Training and backbuilding convection, with an increasing risk of
excessive rain and flash flooding, will then become favored along
the outflow-reinforced frontal zone over srn VA and nrn NC late
tonight-early Wed, before settling swd across most of all cntl NC
later Wed-Wed night. A categorical upgrade from Slight risk to
Moderate for excessive rain may become necessary (Level 2 to 3) as
uncertainties from mesoscale and convective influences to the
placement and evolution of the boundary become clearer; and a Flash
Flood Watch may be needed by later this afternoon or overnight.
While a few strong to severe downbursts will also be possible, the
flash flood risk will have become relatively greater by Wed.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front will move across NC on Thursday and
then stall across the Carolinas into the weekend producing a period
of unsettled weather with cooler than average temperatures. There is
significant uncertainty in the placement of the front which will
greatly determine forecast details including the potential for
significant rainfall.
A mid and upper-level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through the Thursday through Monday period. A cold front
will move south across NC on Thursday and likely stall across along
the Carolina coast and extend westward somewhere in the Carolinas on
Friday through Monday. The front will mark the leading edge of a
cooler and more stable airmass and the frontal zone will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms through much of the period.
While the operational GFS and EC move the front into NC on Thursday
night and then waver it near the NC/SC border or even across eastern
NC on Friday through the weekend the various GEFS and ENS ensemble
members provide a wide range of solutions including pushing the
front further south through SC into GA while others lift the front
across NC into VA. Climatology would suggest a significant southward
push would be unusual and a northward retreat would be more common.
In addition sub-synoptic factors including the development of
convection near the front could impact the evolution and placement
of the front.
Notably cooler and drier air will setup behind the front with much
lower precipitation chances. Near the frontal zone and especially
south of the front expect much more cloudiness, muggy conditions and
unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and storms. On
Friday PW values will potentially range from near 1.1 inches across
southern VA to 2.4 inches across southeastern NC. Similarly surface
dewpoints may range from near 60 in northwestern NC to the mid 70s
across southeastern NC. WPC QPF guidance for Thursday through Monday
highlights a dramatic range in precipitation with rainfall totals of
a half inch or so in Triad, 1.5 to 2.0 inches in the Triangle and 2
to 4 inches in the Sandhills. A slight shift in the frontal
placement could dramatically alter the precipitation amounts.
At this point, the most likely scenario is for the front to move
across NC on Thursday with showers and storms fairly widespread
across the area. While rain chances continue across central NC on
Friday, the focus for showers and storms shifts to southern and
eastern areas. Precipitation coverage and intensity decreases late
in the weekend and on Monday. Expect a fair amount of cloudiness
through the period with improvement late in the period. High
temperatures will range below normal through the period, most
significantly on Thursday with morning lows near average through the
period.
Training and backbuilding convection, with an increasing risk of
excessive rain and flash flooding, will then become favored along
the outflow-reinforced frontal zone over srn VA and nrn NC late
tonight-early Wed, before settling swd across most of all cntl NC
later Wed-Wed night. A categorical upgrade from Slight risk to
Moderate for excessive rain may become necessary (Level 2 to 3) as
uncertainties from mesoscale and convective influences to the
placement and evolution of the boundary become clearer; and a Flash
Flood Watch may be needed by later this afternoon or overnight.
While a few strong to severe downbursts will also be possible, the
flash flood risk will have become relatively greater by Wed.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front will move across NC on Thursday and
then stall across the Carolinas into the weekend producing a period
of unsettled weather with cooler than average temperatures. There is
significant uncertainty in the placement of the front which will
greatly determine forecast details including the potential for
significant rainfall.
A mid and upper-level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through the Thursday through Monday period. A cold front
will move south across NC on Thursday and likely stall across along
the Carolina coast and extend westward somewhere in the Carolinas on
Friday through Monday. The front will mark the leading edge of a
cooler and more stable airmass and the frontal zone will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms through much of the period.
While the operational GFS and EC move the front into NC on Thursday
night and then waver it near the NC/SC border or even across eastern
NC on Friday through the weekend the various GEFS and ENS ensemble
members provide a wide range of solutions including pushing the
front further south through SC into GA while others lift the front
across NC into VA. Climatology would suggest a significant southward
push would be unusual and a northward retreat would be more common.
In addition sub-synoptic factors including the development of
convection near the front could impact the evolution and placement
of the front.
Notably cooler and drier air will setup behind the front with much
lower precipitation chances. Near the frontal zone and especially
south of the front expect much more cloudiness, muggy conditions and
unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and storms. On
Friday PW values will potentially range from near 1.1 inches across
southern VA to 2.4 inches across southeastern NC. Similarly surface
dewpoints may range from near 60 in northwestern NC to the mid 70s
across southeastern NC. WPC QPF guidance for Thursday through Monday
highlights a dramatic range in precipitation with rainfall totals of
a half inch or so in Triad, 1.5 to 2.0 inches in the Triangle and 2
to 4 inches in the Sandhills. A slight shift in the frontal
placement could dramatically alter the precipitation amounts.
At this point, the most likely scenario is for the front to move
across NC on Thursday with showers and storms fairly widespread
across the area. While rain chances continue across central NC on
Friday, the focus for showers and storms shifts to southern and
eastern areas. Precipitation coverage and intensity decreases late
in the weekend and on Monday. Expect a fair amount of cloudiness
through the period with improvement late in the period. High
temperatures will range below normal through the period, most
significantly on Thursday with morning lows near average through the
period.
2.26
Heelyes
Member
Around .4 here 