• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern June Gloom

Wen summer?? All the massive, deadly , heatwaves that have been hyped up for Iowa the last 2 weeks , have crashed and burned horribly! One day it touched 90, yesterday the high was 66 , full sun, stiff NW breeze and I needed a hoodie! Looks to continue BN for better part of June now! 🤘 🥶 IMG_5814.jpeg
 
Last edited:
Woodstock, GA, had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday!

It looks like my home area had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location. That’s also near my MTD rainfall.
 
Last edited:
JHS said:
There is hype about later this week, but I just do not see it. Even a TV met is hyping it up, but it isn't happening. South of I-20 maybe but not for upstate SC or almost anywhere in NC.
Click to expand...
^yesterday
JHS said:
It might be time to pay a little attention. The GSP NWS office is starting to talk about it now.
Click to expand...
^today
Woah never expected to see a 180 from you

This is clearly looking more and more like a very rainy event, signs have been there for a few days now and models are slowly agreeing
 
FortMillSCWx said:
Usually we are the ones jumping up and down about pattern changes,
Justus and wxbrad are honking on late
Week but us… we don’t trust


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If it was snow, B-rad wouldn’t be saying anything and posting his snow meter pegged on 0 ! SNOmg! 1781564899828.png
 
Man I'm worried about my well water supply. Had another family meeting yesterday and told everybody to conserve as much as possible. I don't have any issues yet (..no water) but it'll eventually happen if this drought continues. Latest models don't look great for the next 5 days (as far as I'll take seriously). The latest 6z GFS shows good rains over mid Alabama into GA, but more popup stuff to the north.

Total QPF for day 5:
1781606197117.png

The 6z ICON is more pronounced with precip cutoff in the north.
1781606138177.png

And here's a snippet from RAH:
"Even though we are advertising relatively high POP Thursday
night and Friday - the QPF is currently low. And, these POPs
are likely overdone as they have been lately by the models.
No rain at most locations in the past 15-20 days. Maybe the models
will catch on eventually?" --> ICON has...
 
@ Falls Lake: You aren't alone. Had to do some research and try to figure out just how the aquafiers work in my neck of the woods. Most wells today are 200ft plus deep. I've seen back in a drought 20 or so years ago around here the old timers with shallow wells go dry and have to spurge to have a deeper one dug. Hope this helps.



For a 200 to 300-foot well, aquifers generally do not flow like rapid underground rivers. Instead, groundwater saturates the rock or sediment like a wet sponge, moving downhill via gravity at slow speeds—often just a few feet per day—through tiny pores or fractures. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The exact behavior of an aquifer at this depth depends on its geological structure, which dictates how the water flows:
  • Unconfined (Water Table) Aquifers: At this depth, these are typically found in thick, permeable layers of sand and gravel. Water flows continuously downward from higher elevations to lower elevations in response to gravity and topography. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Confined Aquifers: Often found at 200–300 feet, these are sealed between impermeable rock layers (such as clay or dense bedrock). The water here is under hydrostatic pressure. Instead of flowing freely, it moves laterally—often over long distances and decades of time—from high-pressure recharge zones toward lower-pressure discharge points. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Fractured Bedrock Aquifers: In regions like the Piedmont/Blue Ridge (including areas near Greensboro, NC), a 200-300 ft well pulls from water sitting in cracks and fissures within metamorphic or igneous rock. The flow is dictated by how these cracks intersect and connect. [1, 2, 3]

How Pumping Affects the Flow
When you turn on your well pump, it temporarily alters the natural flow. Water is drawn from the adjacent aquifer, creating a cone of depression (a localized dip in the water table or pressure head) around the well bore. This forces water to flow radially toward the well from all directions to replenish the extracted water. [1, 2]
Understanding the flow helps in determining factors like well yield and how long a well will last. [1, 2]
To help narrow down the specific conditions near you, consider sharing:
  • The general topography of your area (hilly, near a river, coastal)
  • The type of rock or sediment common in your region
 
NCSNOW said:
@ Falls Lake: You aren't alone. Had to do some research and try to figure out just how the aquafiers work in my neck of the woods. Most wells today are 200ft plus deep. I've seen back in a drought 20 or so years ago around here the old timers with shallow wells go dry and have to spurge to have a deeper one dug. Hope this helps.



For a 200 to 300-foot well, aquifers generally do not flow like rapid underground rivers. Instead, groundwater saturates the rock or sediment like a wet sponge, moving downhill via gravity at slow speeds—often just a few feet per day—through tiny pores or fractures. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The exact behavior of an aquifer at this depth depends on its geological structure, which dictates how the water flows:
  • Unconfined (Water Table) Aquifers: At this depth, these are typically found in thick, permeable layers of sand and gravel. Water flows continuously downward from higher elevations to lower elevations in response to gravity and topography. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Confined Aquifers: Often found at 200–300 feet, these are sealed between impermeable rock layers (such as clay or dense bedrock). The water here is under hydrostatic pressure. Instead of flowing freely, it moves laterally—often over long distances and decades of time—from high-pressure recharge zones toward lower-pressure discharge points. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Fractured Bedrock Aquifers: In regions like the Piedmont/Blue Ridge (including areas near Greensboro, NC), a 200-300 ft well pulls from water sitting in cracks and fissures within metamorphic or igneous rock. The flow is dictated by how these cracks intersect and connect. [1, 2, 3]

How Pumping Affects the Flow
When you turn on your well pump, it temporarily alters the natural flow. Water is drawn from the adjacent aquifer, creating a cone of depression (a localized dip in the water table or pressure head) around the well bore. This forces water to flow radially toward the well from all directions to replenish the extracted water. [1, 2]
Understanding the flow helps in determining factors like well yield and how long a well will last. [1, 2]
To help narrow down the specific conditions near you, consider sharing:
  • The general topography of your area (hilly, near a river, coastal)
  • The type of rock or sediment common in your region
Click to expand...
Thanks! Mine is 400+ deep with about 5 gallons a minute replenishment. I also have a static level of 30 foot (great), but I don't know what it is right now. I didn't have any issues back in 2006, but I think this drought is now worse.
 
FallsLake said:
Man I'm worried about my well water supply. Had another family meeting yesterday and told everybody to conserve as much as possible. I don't have any issues yet (..no water) but it'll eventually happen if this drought continues. Latest models don't look great for the next 5 days (as far as I'll take seriously). The latest 6z GFS shows good rains over mid Alabama into GA, but more popup stuff to the north.

Total QPF for day 5:
View attachment 196417

The 6z ICON is more pronounced with precip cutoff in the north.
View attachment 196416

And here's a snippet from RAH:
"Even though we are advertising relatively high POP Thursday
night and Friday - the QPF is currently low. And, these POPs
are likely overdone as they have been lately by the models.
No rain at most locations in the past 15-20 days. Maybe the models
will catch on eventually?" --> ICON has...
Click to expand...
You and me both. RAH was negative Nancy in their discussion about the potential for rainfall Thursday night and Friday but I can see why. The models have cried wolf so many times in their precipitation forecasts that forecasters are becoming skeptical about what they are showing. I believe to have a better shot of rain, the forecast track for PTC 1 needs to be further north and faster with the forward speed so the coming cold front doesn't catch it and push it south before it can do us any good.
 
Last edited:
weather bubba said:
You and me both. RAH was negative Nancy in their discussion about the potential for rainfall Thursday night and Friday but I can see why. The models have cried wolf so many times in their precipitation forecasts that forecasters are becoming skeptical about what they are showing. I believe to have a better shot of rain, the forecast track for this system needs to be further north and faster with the forward speed so the coming cold front doesn't catch it and push it south before it can do us any good.
Click to expand...

That is true I guess. I've heard rumors of a cold front here Thursday

The fact we're still getting fronts this late is bizarre

Anyway yall definitely need to cheer for faster
 
weather bubba said:
You and me both. RAH was negative Nancy in their discussion about the potential for rainfall Thursday night and Friday but I can see why. The models have cried wolf so many times in their precipitation forecasts that forecasters are becoming skeptical about what they are showing. I believe to have a better shot of rain, the forecast track for PTC 1 needs to be further north and faster with the forward speed so the coming cold front doesn't catch it and push it south before it can do us any good.
Click to expand...
The GFS and EURO are both backing off. The drought will win again.
 
GaWx said:
Woodstock, GA, had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday!

It looks like my home area had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location. That’s also near my MTD rainfall.
Click to expand...
This is so much better than a stagnant heat dome summer. I can ride this until fall happily. Nice tropical rains falling after a morning of drippy drizzle. No compressor noise. Just right.
 
So we're hoping the models aren't handling the tropical moisture correctly:

From RAH:
........"The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level
1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Friday, and this is primarily
driven by the moisture that will move northeast with Potential
Tropical Cyclone 1, currently over southeastern Texas and which is
expected to move northeast. However, the severe and excessive
rainfall threats remain low confidence considering the uncertainty
of the timing with both the frontal passage and the tropical
moisture. The tropical moisture may help to enhance rainfall rates,
but this system does not appear likely to do much to ease the long
term drought concerns."

18z GFS day 5 QPF totals:
1781648749499.png
 
FallsLake said:
So we're hoping the models aren't handling the tropical moisture correctly:

From RAH:
........"The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level
1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Friday, and this is primarily
driven by the moisture that will move northeast with Potential
Tropical Cyclone 1, currently over southeastern Texas and which is
expected to move northeast. However, the severe and excessive
rainfall threats remain low confidence considering the uncertainty
of the timing with both the frontal passage and the tropical
moisture. The tropical moisture may help to enhance rainfall rates,
but this system does not appear likely to do much to ease the long
term drought concerns."

18z GFS day 5 QPF totals:
View attachment 196424
Click to expand...
Yes and they probably aren't (i hope I'm not wrong but if I am this post will be gone :) )
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I hate the heat and I have a well so I need the water, but this pattern is getting ridiculous!!! When will we shift out of this mess?
Click to expand...
In this morning's NWS discussion from Raleigh, the last point sums up exactly what you are saying about this persistent pattern that has plagued many of us for so long. The consistent zonal flow and heights aloft have cut off the Gulf moisture from the upper Southeast and until this changes we are left praying and wishing for rain. A Bermuda high setting up shop would be a good way to give us the southwest flow we need to tap into moisture from the Gulf. I, like you, use well water and I am getting concerned about the water tables drying out without moisture to replenish them.
 
One thing is obvious, I think. The northern edge of this will be sharp. 1-2 inches of rain while places 15 miles away will not see a drop.
 
It'll probably change again, but as of the 18z runs upstate SC looks ok. It'll be close though since all of them keep 95% of the rain south of the NC state line west of I-77. 1-2 inches of rain is looking more likely now for the GSP metro and south.
 
Stormy day and night ahead for many. An 850 MB jet streak in the NE quadrant associated with the intensifying LP remnant of Aurthor moving through the SE is likely to bring some strong winds to the surface within strong convection/squalls. Not to mention heavy rains.

nam3km_mslp_uv850_seus_fh20-36.gifnam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh12-36.gif
.
 
Greater chances of more organized supercells and potential tornadoes towards middle/south GA esp around Columbus this afternoon.. areas north of I-20 should only see heavy thunder + rain with potential for localized frequent cloud to ground lightning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top