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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Good God … You are exhausting !! You literally spent your entire day talking about Bust, Overnight Clutter, School Bus, SPC, Mets, Break in the Clouds, etc etc. Please take a break from your usual nonsense.
yeah i saw that. a buddy of mine in a different group chat also noticed that the entrance/exit regions for the best 'mass removal' were not aligned with our neck of the woods. it certainly seems like forcing was not conducive for high topped, traditional supercells to 'catch' in the environment. that's why you saw so many weak, shallow storms. if the forcing had worked out and we actually worked up some instability then this was going in an april 16th ish trajectory.
same buddy takes pto to storm chase in the plains. and i will give it to the chaser community, who are just as mentally unwell as we are about snow. from what i saw on twitter they sniffed this bust out the second CAMs began to waver yesterday. now, i think it's easier to tweet "it's so over" than to change the narrative of a org like the spc, which is like turning the wheel on an aircraft carrier.
i think a lot of mets across the mid atlantic would have loved to issue a less aggressive forecast today and would privately tell you it would not live up to the hype. however, you don't want to go against the spc, which are indeed a room of smart people and talented severe weather forecasters. going against the grain would be arrogant and confusing to the public, so you toe the line
i AM happy it was a fart and i'm not sending a claim to my insurance but we really burned a ton of forecasting good will today, especially with DC being affected.
while this is a good point and a lot of people saw gusty winds today, unfortunately people will remember schools being closed for breezy gray skies
BrickTamland
Member
I thought this was a weather discussion forum.
NorthHillsWx
Member
This gives the event way too much credit, at least in central NC ALL of that came from the FROPA rather than thunderstorms and came after all watches had been canceled. I know there were high winds here but the worst was after the line had passed. That being said, there certainly was plenty of wind energy available aloft so wind reports are not surprising it just took the front to do anything with it as the storms failed earlier
These non-thunderstorm high wind reports in C NC were all 65+ knots?
Decaying MCS/QLCS are really the kryptonite to any severe weather event east of the Apps since you almost always get development later in the day across the ohio valley down into the deep south which arrives here early in the next day. Lack of a good EML yesterday probably should have been a red flag that the warm sector was too free, the trough transitioning a little more + tilt late likely gave the QLCS more ability to progress farther east, deep south flow originating from the deep gulf was apt to have weak disturbances embedded which could set off clouds/rain. That said, the wind associated with the thin line that came through gave an idea of the overall environment yesterday, you miss the early day convection we have a high end PDS severe tstorm watch event yesterday afternoon.
I have all ideas though that if things had been worse than anticipated the cry would have been we werent in a high risk so there wasn't enough warning.
I have all ideas though that if things had been worse than anticipated the cry would have been we werent in a high risk so there wasn't enough warning.
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NorthHillsWx
Member
I just saw that was for 65kts but I can guarantee you without a shred of doubt there was not a single 65kt wind gust in central NC. I think a few spots gusted to 55 kts, RDU gusted to 50. 65? No way. But yes, that was all non-TS or with the line of showers associated with the front itself
I just realized I made a mistake as per met. “Eyewall”. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports throughout the country!
Yes, it looks like 258 wind reports, but none were high. Kind of brutal they didn't even verify a single high wind report considering all the hype! And just one hail report with no large hail. Two tornadoes, at least. I mean, it's good that all didn't happen, but this has to be one of the biggest busts I've seen with regards to severe weather, or any weather for that matter. I'm not a big severe guy, though, so it's all good!
blueheronNC
Member
If local TV mets have to toe the line when it’s high stakes, then what’s the point of having degreed local mets at all? Why not just have the news anchor regurgitate products issued by NWS and SPC and learn how to read radar output? If local mets are only deviating for the window dressing stuff that doesn’t matter like a temp. forecast, there’s really no point at having in-house scientific capacity
I will mention that learning how to read radar output is a skill in of itself that you go to school for. But I see your core point.
On high stakes days, there's a "we're all on the same team" ethos between the national agencies, local broadcasters, WFOs and emergency managers. I think this is the directionally correct strategy. You don't want the public to see bickering behind the scenes. It doesn't project confidence and authority on the situation.
Even in a case where the SPC is setting the narrative, you still need weather expertise on site when weather is driving the news. Relying on only the anchors would be like covering the Iran War without a Middle East expert or diplomat.
Let's take the contra of yesterday- an unstable environment that produces multiple long track tornadoes. A confirmed tornado has touched down in Fayetteville. Another has touched down in Asheboro. There's another warning for an ominous storm in Wilson. An unseasoned news anchor would flop like a fish out of water here trying to communicate radar output, NWS products, local landmarks, and everything else that makes for adequate in-situ tornado coverage. Days like yesterday, in theory, are exactly why you retain talented in-house scientific capacity.
I get and appreciate your sentiment on this subject. Professional METS have it hard. There are a few on here such as yourself , (not directed at you) who make calls and it doesn’t produce as forecasted. Weather is dynamic and always changing and I have never understood why the public gets so bent out of shape when a forecast doesn’t go directly as “forecasted”. It’s a damned if you do ,damned damned if you don’t scenario most times.
Brent
Member
I have tried to harp on being able to read the basics of radar here even for the amateurs on Facebook I run into who are constantly freaking out on the forecasted higher risk days. I grew up in Alabama so I'm used to radar watching on the bad days and I just can't imagine not being able to. Heck I still radar watch over there when I need to because I have family who can't really
I can probably list on one hand the number of times I've actually been truly concerned about my backyard even going back to my Alabama days 10-20 years ago... Even the tornado sirens for 2 hours the other week here I pretty much knew it was going to well away from us and it was
I mean the problem with TV is if we ever get a storm like Fathers Day 2023 again there won't be any TV to save you
Meanwhile on Facebook everyone is freaking out and in a panic. I saw it in Alabama even on Spanns page during their high risk last year. Endless comments about their backyard when he wasn't showing them. I don't know take a hint if he's not showing it because there's nothing to show?
Like these people would never survive April 2011 in Alabama or a day when Moore happened here. Or heck the day in June 1974 Tulsa had two tornadoes during rush hour. It boggles my mind
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That is what I've tried to teach my wife and on the next actual legit tornado threat, I will teach my kids. I've already told them that I'm gonna cast radarscope to the TV and we are gonna have some legit live severe weather coverage.
Brent
Member
Yup it drives me crazy that someone can live where we live and just be totally unaware of anything
It's unfortunate, but the general public wants to be spoon-fed, and our culture is all about finding someone to blame when your own expectations are not met. And social media often spins everything into wildly unreasonable expectations.
I talked about this in my video the othwr day, but people need to take ownership over learning and knowing where the best info is and where it is not. And they need to take time to educate themselves and not just believe everything they see and hear. But we're generally too lazy to do it. So the complaining will continue.
I talked about this in my video the othwr day, but people need to take ownership over learning and knowing where the best info is and where it is not. And they need to take time to educate themselves and not just believe everything they see and hear. But we're generally too lazy to do it. So the complaining will continue.
I think the general public is not very knowledgeable about two things. First is not being able to tell how serious threats are and the different levels. Sometimes there's a chance, and others there's a much better chance. But for most of them it's black and white and can't distinguish levels of probable severity. All or nothing..
The 2nd (and this is going to sound bad)--some people are just terrible at basic geography. I can forgive that to an extent when its outside your area, but a lot of people can't even tell which county they live in when looking at radar. (much less where they live within the county) It's crazy when you see on social media when TOR Watches/Warnings are issued in areas, and people say "OMG its gonna be bad here in (their backyard)" which happens to be like 5 counties outside of wherever it was issued.