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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar in the big picture to yesterday with (after the next week of cold domination) a stout -PNA and mildness dominating into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar in the big picture to yesterday with (after the next week of cold domination) a stout -PNA and mildness dominating into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative.
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For those that might be gun-shy of mild, can we give some temp guidance. My thought for general south “winter mild” is 60s/50s-40s, but I think everyone has such a drastically different idea, it could be helpful to articulate. Not you saying you particular, just in general. These pinks cause panic, when still mild equals ALOT better than any of time of the year (imho).
 
ontherocks said:
For those that might be gun-shy of mild, can we give some temp guidance. My thought for general south “winter mild” is 60s/50s-40s, but I think everyone has such a drastically different idea, it could be helpful to articulate. Not you saying you particular, just in general. These pinks cause panic, when still mild equals ALOT better than any of time of the year (imho).
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When I say mild, I mean averaging at least a few degrees above average per the long term guidance (that can easily turn out wrong especially further out). I don’t usually get too specific due to the relative low skill that far out. It isn’t suggesting a blowtorch average although there’d very likely be a few torchy days interspersed if this verifies. My guess is that there’d be a good number of 70s highs in my area on the warmer days with a good number of 60s highs in your area with a chance for a couple of 70s for the warmer days.

But that’s only IF this is close to being correct, which nobody can predict! It’s just longterm guidance. Now would I rather it be colder? Of course. I like BN temps whenever I can get them. Seeing cold coming like we have now is much more fun to me than the opposite. So, I don’t like seeing the mildness although there are way, way worse things in life lol. So, I could handle it just fine.
 
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How we looking on the MJO front? Where’s it headed?? Must be traveling out of 8,1,2, for the warmup to occur next week and people are not playing it alot!?
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates.

Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

I don’t know why this site doesn’t allow me to attach ECMWF’s site’s Euro Weekly maps other than the 10 mb maps.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates.

Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

I don’t know why this site doesn’t allow me to attach ECMWF’s site’s Euro Weekly maps other than the 10 mb maps.
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While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
 
SnowNiner said:
While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
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Thats true. They have been wrong so many times with cold and getting people's hopes up. I personally think they are terrible. But I'm also aware we seem to find way more ways to be above average than below. So it wouldn't surprise me at all really if we torch til mid Jan or even later.
 
SnowNiner said:
While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
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Although many times they’ve been dead wrong, I’ve found them over the years to have a better chance to verify halfway decently when they show a drastic change, whether that be for the tropics or for the winter and especially if they’re consistent, of course. That’s as one would imagine especially the case for the earlier weeks. Also, if their anomalies are stronger/stronger signal, they often seem to have a better clue, which is intuitive.

Regardless, it sounds like we may need lots of patience. The first half of Dec will turn out delightfully solidly cold, which I’m very thankful for. It appears we MAY be headed toward a pretty mild 2nd half of Dec and first half of Jan. Then, perhaps based on the EW hint today, we’ll get a cold 2nd half of Jan. So, that would mean one month’s worth of cold and one month’s worth of mild with Feb to be the tiebreaker. Even if warm, we’d always have that one month’s worth of cold before that we didn’t have to have.
 
Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall:
IMG_6076.png

This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec:

PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec

- 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8)

- 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1)

- 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5)

- 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1)

- 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2)

- 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8)

- 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0)

- 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1)

- 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6)

- 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9)

- 2021-2: -2.6/+1.0 (rose 3.6)

So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.9!

Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3:
IMG_6079.png

Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone
IMG_6080.png
 
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I initially put this in Dec thread by mistake.

I remain on “hope the Euro Weeklies for Jan fail miserably mode” because not only did today’s hold onto the mild pattern (though consistent blowtorch still well W of the E US thanks probably to refreshing CAD at times in the E US), they warmed that final week of the run (1/19-25) vs yesterday. Heart of torch still from SC US to SW US, away from CAD episodes.
 
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GaWx said:
Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall:
View attachment 178800

This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec:

PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec

- 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8)

- 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1)

- 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5)

- 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1)

- 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2)

- 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8)

- 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0)

- 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1)

- 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6)

- 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9)

- 2021-2: -1.6/+1.0 (rose 2.6)

So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.8!

Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3:
View attachment 178801

Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone
View attachment 178802
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Those are some really good analogs for us
 
BullCityWx said:
Those are some really good analogs for us
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I saw a lot of really good analogs rolled out earlier in November when there was an early strat warm and some more really good ones when there was a big phase 8 run in December. I ❤️ analogs 😁
 
Yes, I said hope! I am an unabashed lover of weather extremes, particularly those which "fit the season". With many model forecasts and human projections of a major warm-up across the lower 48 states for the holiday period, those like me who want a big cold wave or heavy snow and ice event have to wait out at least 6 days of some cases of record warmth before an Arctic intrusion returns to the lower 48 states. The question is, could the warmth last further? If you based odds on the model guidance alone, the odds on a cAk placement below the Canadian border are about 3 in 7. The American and European series are closest to the analog support, but the GEFS and ECMWF versions have members that show a return to a broad +PNA/-AO/-NAO signature that would return the eastern half of the continent to an extremely cold scenario with chances for snow in the Great Lakes and the Eastern Seaboard.

Cautions I apply to the forecast: do NOT make assumptions based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictions (see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. The numerical model Wheeler diagrams are not useful in this regard. Also, for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming alteration in sensible weather, consider that the 10MB warm anomaly should be on the American side of the North Pole, should foreshadow a high-latitude blocking signature and will occur 2 to 4 weeks following the SSW. You would want to see either some splitting or persistent positioning of the warming pool. Using previous stratospheric warming projections, I suspect that the lower 48 states are going to feel another cold wave in the Christmas/New Year hammock week, and maybe 5 to 7 days beyond. On the idea that we see a climatologically-favored "January Thaw, the middle of next month could be as warm as what we are looking at by this weekend. But I concur with the analog set that the latter third of the first month of the new year will turn quite cold, perhaps lasting through February with better potential for ice, snow further south and east than before.

Clues to look at: the expanded snow and ice cover, similarities to 2007 and 2024-25. Around Christmas or shortly thereafter, winter should fight its way back into the U.S.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 11:20 P.M. CT​
 
lexxnchloe said:
Yes, I said hope! I am an unabashed lover of weather extremes, particularly those which "fit the season". With many model forecasts and human projections of a major warm-up across the lower 48 states for the holiday period, those like me who want a big cold wave or heavy snow and ice event have to wait out at least 6 days of some cases of record warmth before an Arctic intrusion returns to the lower 48 states. The question is, could the warmth last further? If you based odds on the model guidance alone, the odds on a cAk placement below the Canadian border are about 3 in 7. The American and European series are closest to the analog support, but the GEFS and ECMWF versions have members that show a return to a broad +PNA/-AO/-NAO signature that would return the eastern half of the continent to an extremely cold scenario with chances for snow in the Great Lakes and the Eastern Seaboard.

Cautions I apply to the forecast: do NOT make assumptions based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictions (see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. The numerical model Wheeler diagrams are not useful in this regard. Also, for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming alteration in sensible weather, consider that the 10MB warm anomaly should be on the American side of the North Pole, should foreshadow a high-latitude blocking signature and will occur 2 to 4 weeks following the SSW. You would want to see either some splitting or persistent positioning of the warming pool. Using previous stratospheric warming projections, I suspect that the lower 48 states are going to feel another cold wave in the Christmas/New Year hammock week, and maybe 5 to 7 days beyond. On the idea that we see a climatologically-favored "January Thaw, the middle of next month could be as warm as what we are looking at by this weekend. But I concur with the analog set that the latter third of the first month of the new year will turn quite cold, perhaps lasting through February with better potential for ice, snow further south and east than before.

Clues to look at: the expanded snow and ice cover, similarities to 2007 and 2024-25. Around Christmas or shortly thereafter, winter should fight its way back into the U.S.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 11:20 P.M. CT​
Click to expand...
I don’t know much about him, and no disrespect, but I think I’ve read his stuff before and he leans to the “ cold weenie” side of things usually!? I’m not sure of his accuracy!?
 
lexxnchloe said:
Yes, I said hope! I am an unabashed lover of weather extremes, particularly those which "fit the season". With many model forecasts and human projections of a major warm-up across the lower 48 states for the holiday period, those like me who want a big cold wave or heavy snow and ice event have to wait out at least 6 days of some cases of record warmth before an Arctic intrusion returns to the lower 48 states. The question is, could the warmth last further? If you based odds on the model guidance alone, the odds on a cAk placement below the Canadian border are about 3 in 7. The American and European series are closest to the analog support, but the GEFS and ECMWF versions have members that show a return to a broad +PNA/-AO/-NAO signature that would return the eastern half of the continent to an extremely cold scenario with chances for snow in the Great Lakes and the Eastern Seaboard.

Cautions I apply to the forecast: do NOT make assumptions based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictions (see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. The numerical model Wheeler diagrams are not useful in this regard. Also, for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming alteration in sensible weather, consider that the 10MB warm anomaly should be on the American side of the North Pole, should foreshadow a high-latitude blocking signature and will occur 2 to 4 weeks following the SSW. You would want to see either some splitting or persistent positioning of the warming pool. Using previous stratospheric warming projections, I suspect that the lower 48 states are going to feel another cold wave in the Christmas/New Year hammock week, and maybe 5 to 7 days beyond. On the idea that we see a climatologically-favored "January Thaw, the middle of next month could be as warm as what we are looking at by this weekend. But I concur with the analog set that the latter third of the first month of the new year will turn quite cold, perhaps lasting through February with better potential for ice, snow further south and east than before.

Clues to look at: the expanded snow and ice cover, similarities to 2007 and 2024-25. Around Christmas or shortly thereafter, winter should fight its way back into the U.S.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 11:20 P.M. CT​
Click to expand...

Didn't he say Christmas was gonna be a memorable week last week?

Oh it's gonna be memorable alright
 
If I had to make an educated guess and pick the coldest day in January relative to climo normals, then I would say the 19th (MLK Jr Day), based on a combination of wave cycle patterns the last few months, . MJO progression, and the Aleutian ridge life cycle. Then +/-3 days from Jan 19th for our best shot for a board wide winter storm. We'll have some cold shots and wintry chances before and after then, but Jan 16th-22nd is the timeframe I think we'll see peak winter 2025-26.
 
cyclogent said:
If I had to make an educated guess and pick the coldest day in January relative to climo normals, then I would say the 19th (MLK Jr Day), based on a combination of wave cycle patterns the last few months, . MJO progression, and the Aleutian ridge life cycle. Then +/-3 days from Jan 19th for our best shot for a board wide winter storm. We'll have some cold shots and wintry chances before and after then, but Jan 16th-22nd is the timeframe I think we'll see peak winter 2025-26.
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lol same thing every year. Posters point to MLK day, Then the Valentine’s Day time frame followed by “I think we got a shot last week of Feb” happens every year.
 
cyclogent said:
If I had to make an educated guess and pick the coldest day in January relative to climo normals, then I would say the 19th (MLK Jr Day), based on a combination of wave cycle patterns the last few months, . MJO progression, and the Aleutian ridge life cycle. Then +/-3 days from Jan 19th for our best shot for a board wide winter storm. We'll have some cold shots and wintry chances before and after then, but Jan 16th-22nd is the timeframe I think we'll see peak winter 2025-26.
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Well that period was when the south got its biggest snowstorm last year. Right around Jan 21.
 
Stevo24 said:
lol same thing every year. Posters point to MLK day, Then the Valentine’s Day time frame followed by “I think we got a shot last week of Feb” happens every year.
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March 1960 always comes up as a Hail Mary! 🧱
 
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