Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it could start to impact things as early as later in February or March
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I think it could start to impact things as early as later in February or March
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
TAO buoy subsurface animation for this month. Notice the thermocline is quickly deepening and advancing eastward over the west-central pacific.
MRKEVIN7575
Member
trackersacker
Member
Jglover004
Member
Just down the road in Seymour. Looks like a decent shower is heading my wayView attachment 177523
9:30 PM: Currently trying to time the incoming wave of sleet with Smoky Mountain Christmas fireworks. Wish me luck
Shadypines33
Member
Man, I've had to replace bushes that froze in North Alabama for the last two winters. I've never had to do that before. It's getting cold here.
trackersacker
Member
It began to sleet right as we got to the car
tennessee storm
Member
lol cold last what maybe day half to two days … climate is warming up
tennessee storm
Member
Not good be honest
lexxnchloe
Member
I get the feeling that many of my readers want a return to a "good old fashioned winter", replete with blizzards, ice storms, and three or four months of notable cold. That may be wrong, since I know many flee to Florida or Arizona in the DJFM time frame. But comments on social media and adjectives thrown from broadcast networks do not lie. Global warming be damned, can we please have our late 1970s' or early/mid 2010s weather back please?
What the analogs tell us, particularly with the 2024-25 predominance as well as "on the margins" resemblance to 2007-08, 2013-14 and 2020-21 is that while it is unlikely that we will have the proverbial "one for the record books", we are going to have a season that will breed its own share of memories for those who like cold, ice and snow. This holiday weekend storm should be a benchmark of sorts because the snowline was dragged far south and a solid white coverage across Canada will favor the cAk regimes. The semizonal course of the westerlies and lack of lasting blocks within the Arctic Circle suggests that at least some gaps in the colder air and snowpack are likely. The final GFS monthly outline for December is basically along cold North vs. warm South lines. But it is that vigorous storm sequence in the Pacific Basin that concerns me. Particularly there is a concurrent impressive southern branch that will ultimately phase with the polar and Arctic flows. Most of the in-depth comparison charts suggest a really tough time in January and February as the cAk vortex finds a home near the Soo Locks. Its current status looks to be across Hudson Bay, which may allow for another cold week before moderation sets in for the middle of December. Another cold intrusion seems probable via the numerical models around the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.
Ski resorts, salt companies and snow plow companies have reason to be optimistic. And so do the "snow freaks" (in memory of the late Dr. Frank Sechrist, University Of Wisconsin all-time snow hater), living in the eastern 2/3 of the USA. But just remember that some warm-ups are likely in mid-January, and this pattern may go away in early or middle March.
What the analogs tell us, particularly with the 2024-25 predominance as well as "on the margins" resemblance to 2007-08, 2013-14 and 2020-21 is that while it is unlikely that we will have the proverbial "one for the record books", we are going to have a season that will breed its own share of memories for those who like cold, ice and snow. This holiday weekend storm should be a benchmark of sorts because the snowline was dragged far south and a solid white coverage across Canada will favor the cAk regimes. The semizonal course of the westerlies and lack of lasting blocks within the Arctic Circle suggests that at least some gaps in the colder air and snowpack are likely. The final GFS monthly outline for December is basically along cold North vs. warm South lines. But it is that vigorous storm sequence in the Pacific Basin that concerns me. Particularly there is a concurrent impressive southern branch that will ultimately phase with the polar and Arctic flows. Most of the in-depth comparison charts suggest a really tough time in January and February as the cAk vortex finds a home near the Soo Locks. Its current status looks to be across Hudson Bay, which may allow for another cold week before moderation sets in for the middle of December. Another cold intrusion seems probable via the numerical models around the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.
Ski resorts, salt companies and snow plow companies have reason to be optimistic. And so do the "snow freaks" (in memory of the late Dr. Frank Sechrist, University Of Wisconsin all-time snow hater), living in the eastern 2/3 of the USA. But just remember that some warm-ups are likely in mid-January, and this pattern may go away in early or middle March.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:30 A.M. CT
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:30 A.M. CT
Southern Track
Member
Improvement:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One of the keys to this year having a real chance to break the stereotypical -ENSO mold of a torchy February in the Eastern US is to zonally advect the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool eastward enough to focus convective heating just west of the Int'l Dateline in the Equatorial Pacific.
Still unsure how much of an impact this ongoing MJO event will have to change the mean state in the Pacific the next few months, but it wouldn't take a radical shift from where we're at now to make something like this legitimately possible.
Still unsure how much of an impact this ongoing MJO event will have to change the mean state in the Pacific the next few months, but it wouldn't take a radical shift from where we're at now to make something like this legitimately possible.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Contrary to popular belief, you don't need El Niño to get cold in the E US in Feb & we won't see an ENSO transition that quickly here this year.
Oth, even just a subtle eastward shift of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) to push the ENSO state to something in between Modoki/Central Pacific Nino & classic La Niña by February (with warming focused west of the Int'l Dateline) is more than enough.
Unlike a majority of-ENSO winters, this year could have a few tricks up its sleeve to make the seasonal forecast more uncertain later in the winter
Oth, even just a subtle eastward shift of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) to push the ENSO state to something in between Modoki/Central Pacific Nino & classic La Niña by February (with warming focused west of the Int'l Dateline) is more than enough.
Unlike a majority of-ENSO winters, this year could have a few tricks up its sleeve to make the seasonal forecast more uncertain later in the winter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The fact that we're in an easterly QBO atm also makes me think this is a real possibility
We tend to see significantly more MJO days in the Tropical West Pacific during East QBO winters (which is likely what we'd need this year to see a colder finish to winter (unlike the Nina stereotype).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD028171
I remember reading somewhere that an east QBO also promotes more blocking which would be nice.
Glenn Burns mentioned these guys today:
www.severe-weather.eu
Long range / seasonal forecast Archives
Long-range (seasonal) weather forecasts for Winter, Spring, Summer, and Autumn/Fall in the United States, Europe, and also the rest of the world
www.severe-weather.eu
MRKEVIN7575
Member
Takes a few weeks to effect us if we get cold over hereGlenn Burns mentioned these guys today:
Long range / seasonal forecast Archives
Long-range (seasonal) weather forecasts for Winter, Spring, Summer, and Autumn/Fall in the United States, Europe, and also the rest of the world
View attachment 177585
Looking out into mid-December, the models of course aren't looking ideal with the forecasted +EPO, Alaska trough/low
Long range GFS and all, but it shows the proper jet extension we need to see (out towards Hawaii) to get more cold air involved with a big western ridge developing.
The Paul Roundy product also shows this type of AK ridge. This product is a combination of the 100-day averaged convective signal (OLR) (i.e. the base tropical forcing pattern signal) overlayed with the MJO progression and the "equatorial Rossby band signals"
Also, there continues to be indications of SPV reflection / stretching in the modeling. Here is the 12z Euro run showing the Canadian Warming on Nov 30 evolving into a stretched SPV on Dec 15
So, some mixed signals going forward, but let's see if the pattern on the modeling can improve in time.
Long range GFS and all, but it shows the proper jet extension we need to see (out towards Hawaii) to get more cold air involved with a big western ridge developing.
The Paul Roundy product also shows this type of AK ridge. This product is a combination of the 100-day averaged convective signal (OLR) (i.e. the base tropical forcing pattern signal) overlayed with the MJO progression and the "equatorial Rossby band signals"
Also, there continues to be indications of SPV reflection / stretching in the modeling. Here is the 12z Euro run showing the Canadian Warming on Nov 30 evolving into a stretched SPV on Dec 15
So, some mixed signals going forward, but let's see if the pattern on the modeling can improve in time.
Last edited:
MRKEVIN7575
Member
Do you still like the 15th dec through mid Jan for best opportunities for winter weather?
I see no reason to change that at this point. I didn't think the SPV weakening would be reflective in nature. That lessons the high latitude blocking potential, but if we get the SPV stretching, it could lead to more arctic outbreak potential - so, pick your 'poison' there. In the end, it's just a forecast. Plenty can go right / plenty can go wrong
MRKEVIN7575
Member
I know the SSW just started and that andrej that does a blog from overseas thinks it could be pretty interesting in a few weeks due to that SSW. Im hoping it can bring some cold and winter weather
trackersacker
Member
Was gonna say. Seems like model trends last 36-48 hours have been on the blander side. Wondered if it was a lack of model recognition with the MJO because phase 8 really does not favor a +EPO
I’m gonna need a new pair of flip flops
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Same old Nina song and dance each year. Copy and paste....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The lead-up to the next West-Central Pacific MJO orbit will probably be the most favorable subseasonal window for western troughing this entire winter.
Imho, the million dollar question ultimately is going to be: how large is this favorable -PNA window? Does this window last for most of the rest of the winter after the New Year, or do we triumphantly flip back to a big & cold +TNH pattern in February? Honestly, I'm still not sure.
Normally, in a majority of La Niña winters it often lasts for the bulk of both January and especially February and I typically feel pretty confident in that outcome. However, this year is not like a majority of La Niña winters in that an El Niño is likely lurking on the horizon. Even a subtle shift to the mean ENSO state during this transition period in late winter can (& often does) dramatically change the downstream pattern and the sensible impacts from what you'd normally expect. In our case, a subtle eastward shift in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool & the underlying ENSO base state towards a hybrid modoki El Niño - classic La Niña pattern that couples with the MJO in Feb would give us an opportunity to see something like Feb 2014 instead of the canonical Nina look this time around. However, I still need to see how much the Warm Pool responds to this latest MJO event (which is still ongoing).
Also, to further muddy the canonical Nina potential in late winter this year, the tropical troposphere is already in a very heavy El Niño-like state, w/ a giant build-up of +AAM anomalies. When a portion of this reservoir of westerly momentum gets fluxed poleward into the subtropics & mid-latitudes during the next Eastern Hemisphere MJO orbit, extratropical teleconnections could deviate somewhat from the typical/expected MJO + La Niña configuration because the stronger westerly background flow would be capable of advecting the planetary waves eastward a bit more.
It's honestly pretty incredible to see 3 sigma global mean AAM anomalies like this during a Nina winter, we're going to need a bigger chart here soon...
The latest European Weeklies are fwiw loading up the next significant MJO event over the Warm Pool in January, which is generally in line with my general thoughts from a month ago (at least for now).
Imho, the million dollar question ultimately is going to be: how large is this favorable -PNA window? Does this window last for most of the rest of the winter after the New Year, or do we triumphantly flip back to a big & cold +TNH pattern in February? Honestly, I'm still not sure.
Normally, in a majority of La Niña winters it often lasts for the bulk of both January and especially February and I typically feel pretty confident in that outcome. However, this year is not like a majority of La Niña winters in that an El Niño is likely lurking on the horizon. Even a subtle shift to the mean ENSO state during this transition period in late winter can (& often does) dramatically change the downstream pattern and the sensible impacts from what you'd normally expect. In our case, a subtle eastward shift in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool & the underlying ENSO base state towards a hybrid modoki El Niño - classic La Niña pattern that couples with the MJO in Feb would give us an opportunity to see something like Feb 2014 instead of the canonical Nina look this time around. However, I still need to see how much the Warm Pool responds to this latest MJO event (which is still ongoing).
Also, to further muddy the canonical Nina potential in late winter this year, the tropical troposphere is already in a very heavy El Niño-like state, w/ a giant build-up of +AAM anomalies. When a portion of this reservoir of westerly momentum gets fluxed poleward into the subtropics & mid-latitudes during the next Eastern Hemisphere MJO orbit, extratropical teleconnections could deviate somewhat from the typical/expected MJO + La Niña configuration because the stronger westerly background flow would be capable of advecting the planetary waves eastward a bit more.
It's honestly pretty incredible to see 3 sigma global mean AAM anomalies like this during a Nina winter, we're going to need a bigger chart here soon...
The latest European Weeklies are fwiw loading up the next significant MJO event over the Warm Pool in January, which is generally in line with my general thoughts from a month ago (at least for now).
MRKEVIN7575
Member
Eric, I'm not a meteorologist like yourself, but it sounds like january may be real warm if indeed the mjo is in phases 3-5 then. Hoping that isn't the case. I guess we hope for SSW action where we get cold air here from it?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z GFS really stretching the SPV mid month
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GEFS AO forecasts:
Just 4 days ago (11/28 run), it was forecasting the AO to be at +0.7 on Dec 7th (only 9 days out):
Today’s run (12/2) has the Dec 7th AO way down to -2.3 or 3.0 lower than the run from a mere 4 days ago:
Thus, even the ensemble means when looking out just 8-10 days have recently been missing high latitude blocking. So, for the time being, I’m taking the 11-14 day progs with more of a grain than usual.
Just 4 days ago (11/28 run), it was forecasting the AO to be at +0.7 on Dec 7th (only 9 days out):
Today’s run (12/2) has the Dec 7th AO way down to -2.3 or 3.0 lower than the run from a mere 4 days ago:
Thus, even the ensemble means when looking out just 8-10 days have recently been missing high latitude blocking. So, for the time being, I’m taking the 11-14 day progs with more of a grain than usual.
Since its 12/2 this thread is going to be unpinned fyi
MRKEVIN7575
Member
We shall see if it verifies
lexxnchloe
Member
I am trying to get everyone in the mood for winter weather, hence the three links to songs to start this discussion. Granted, if you only go by numerical model runs, the recent cavort from "blaster cold wave" (12z) to "major warm-up" will make weather enthusiasts dizzy (and many will go all the way to proclaiming a "Phase 8" winter disaster to a "winter cancel and warm Christmas") proclamation in the space of about 6 hours! It is ludicrous, and reminds me that one should always aim for a middle ground when numerical models show unstable behavior. In this case, I am sold on something of a warm-up in the 6-10 day period followed by a grinding avalanche of Arctic air east of the Rocky Mountains in the 11-15 and 16-20 day time frames. Keep in mind that the snowpack is becoming quite thick, which may alter and enhance Arctic intrusions into the lower 48 states.
Most of the model guidance for the end of the month through much of January favors an -EPO/-AO signature with a significant cold-drain trough complex over the East. What is difficult is timing the exit of the warming trend out of Texas and the Great Plains shown on the ECMWF model suite. The American and Canadian members keep the Great Lakes and New England/Mid-Atlantic cool, implying maybe a day or two of warmth before an Arctic front crashes the party just before Christmas. The southern branch has a storm which could start a drain of the cAk air mass down the Great Plains and Texas, then pushing rapidly through the Mississippi Valley, then the Appalachian Mountains. This is consistent with analogs and model guidance, and may take the worst of the Arctic values through the central and eastern chambers of North America. The disturbance may create problems with snow and ice in the run-up to the holiday week, and must be watched as it moves out of the western Gulf of Mexico.
There is more talk about stratospheric warming and splitting (see 10MB maps). Always keep in mind that any surface impacts are 2 to 4 weeks after the episode, which might indicate a cold-dominated January. But when looking into next month, always factor in a climatology-favored "January Thaw" in the middle of the time frame. The analog-derived prediction shows a James Bay cAk 500MB vortex, which can create interesting options for snow and ice.
Most of the model guidance for the end of the month through much of January favors an -EPO/-AO signature with a significant cold-drain trough complex over the East. What is difficult is timing the exit of the warming trend out of Texas and the Great Plains shown on the ECMWF model suite. The American and Canadian members keep the Great Lakes and New England/Mid-Atlantic cool, implying maybe a day or two of warmth before an Arctic front crashes the party just before Christmas. The southern branch has a storm which could start a drain of the cAk air mass down the Great Plains and Texas, then pushing rapidly through the Mississippi Valley, then the Appalachian Mountains. This is consistent with analogs and model guidance, and may take the worst of the Arctic values through the central and eastern chambers of North America. The disturbance may create problems with snow and ice in the run-up to the holiday week, and must be watched as it moves out of the western Gulf of Mexico.
There is more talk about stratospheric warming and splitting (see 10MB maps). Always keep in mind that any surface impacts are 2 to 4 weeks after the episode, which might indicate a cold-dominated January. But when looking into next month, always factor in a climatology-favored "January Thaw" in the middle of the time frame. The analog-derived prediction shows a James Bay cAk 500MB vortex, which can create interesting options for snow and ice.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, December 7, 2025, 2025 at 1:45 P.M. CT
Sunday, December 7, 2025, 2025 at 1:45 P.M. CT
MRKEVIN7575
Member
I find it interesting that the daily PDO has risen alot in the last few months. The WCS keeps track of that, which i believe has a better track record instead of the CPC, which only does it monthly. Not sure if it makes a difference for winter, bit we shall see.
Today’s Euro Weeklies for week 3+ are still lacking cold domination to return to most of the E US south of the N tier with a solid -PNA dominating through mid Jan along with no -NAO or -AO. If this verifies, it would likely be pretty mild in much of the E US and especially SE US and nothing like we’ve been experiencing the last 2 weeks. However, models the last 3 weeks have been too warm in the E US with too much SER and missing much of the -NAO and -AO. Also, Midwest snowcover is well above avg, there’s the potential lag effects from the 11/28/25 SSWE, and the MJO remains favorable for E US cold.
Are the weeklies/models finally getting their act together or are they going to continue with the same errors? Opinions?
Are the weeklies/models finally getting their act together or are they going to continue with the same errors? Opinions?
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah hopefully the warm solution s verify. Know not a popular opinion on here. But cold with no snow sucks
Cad Wedge NC
Member
You have to get cold without snow first.... then you might have a chance at snow. Without the cold, you will never have a chance. You people want 1 day of cold and snow followed by weeks of torch? Makes no sense.
iGRXY
Member
Literally. It's swamp ass hot 6-7 months out of the year and these people want warm winters lolol
trackersacker
Member
I feel you on this one. I’m the biggest snow lover ever but it does. We’ve gotten 30s and rain multiple times this year. I’m rooting for a wintry pattern hard, but man it ain’t this one