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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

I really think we're gonna have to wait til we get something closer to home. I mean there's a long list of em

Most African waves recurve anyway and especially if we keep up these massive troughs
 
Just like yesterday’s 12Z and today’s 0Z, the 6Z Euro has the low come off Africa Fri evening (not that far out…that’s why I think it’s worth posts). It becomes a TD Saturday night near the CVs, moves slightly S of due W from there, and ends up near 16N, 30W at 144 still as a TD. If this keeps up a few more runs, it would call for a lemon, especially with the CVs potentially impacted within only 5 days.

Edit: Actually, with rather strong support by the Euro and Icon, some support by the CMC and JMA, and on/off support by the UKMET, I feel that if the Euro/Icon were to hold onto this at 12Z and if the UKMET were to get it back, it would then already be lemon-worthy even if the GFS still doesn’t have it.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Just like yesterday’s 12Z and today’s 0Z, the 6Z Euro has the low come off Africa Fri evening (not that far out…that’s why I think it’s worth posts). It becomes a TD Saturday night near the CVs, moves slightly S of due W from there, and ends up near 16N, 30W at 144 still as a TD. If this keeps up a few more runs, it would call for a lemon, especially with the CVs potentially impacted within only 5 days.

Edit: Actually, with rather strong support by the Euro and Icon, some support by the CMC and JMA, and on/off support by the UKMET, I feel that if the Euro/Icon were to hold onto this at 12Z and if the UKMET were to get it back, it would then already be lemon-worthy even if the GFS still doesn’t have it.
Click to expand...

Followup:
The 12Z Icon is another run with it. It comes off Africa Fri night and is already a TD on Sat/Sat night:
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Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

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