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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Interesting first two hours here in TLH.
Temp dropped to 30.5 as precip commenced as sleet, then a sn/ip mix, then briefly all snow.
It then went back to sleet and is now most zr with a bit of sleet mixed in.
Also, temps have risen a full degree to 31.6, I assume a product of WAA.

The RAP is undeterred, handing out 8 inches (Kuchera) while the HRRR thinks it sniffs out a sleet storm through midnight.

Anyway, ready for temps to crash a bit and a snow changeover to happen as SPC is predicting in its mesoscale.
Just like the old days around 74 Skip. Waiting for the temp to crash. Good luck man!
 
This is a BIBLICAL Southern Winter Storm (using the SECS, etc. terminology). I thought there was no way the modeling could be right for what they were printing out for the Gulf Coast. It was unthinkable. It was impossible! I can’t believe Florida has likely DOUBLED their all time snowfall record, New Orleans has blown past theirs, and the entire Gulf Coast is getting pummeled by the same winter storm!! I wish I still lived in Tallahassee now!
I know we all concentrate on our own backyards, but it's also good to look at this from some perspective. This is literally a once in a lifetime event for the Gulf Coast.

I mean seriously--we had Blizzard Warnings in Lousiana today. 🤣
 
Sheesh dry air battle commences. Longer you can stay in the snow the better. Wonder how far it eats away. View attachment 166579

That 700mb dryline is no joke. For me it went from mod-heavy snow to nothing in like 5 minutes...like shutting off a faucet with no chance of turning it back on.
 
So I do have a question. If the FGEN at 850 and 700mb are parking over CLT why would we be drying up so quickly/fighting the dry slot so bad? I though that wherever it sets up is where there would likely be more precip/heavier rates. I could also be completely wrong lol
 
Roads are slushy around here and most every surface that isn’t black has a nice coating. Sitting at 27 currently but I’d swear there’s some freezing rain falling at the moment. Waiting for the next burst of snow.
 
The mid-level cold front is pressing in from the west over the piedmont. Eventually subsidence drying will take over and shut the snow off, but you should see some good rates for a little while. It's areas further to the east where these rates are likely to be even greater later tonight as we squeeze more frontogenesis out of the initial mid-level warm front that comes in from the south then the subsequent mid-level cold front from the west.
Like Raleigh or further east? Right now it seems like we're in the subsidence between bands.
 
The mid level cold front is temporarily squeezing out better rates back over the I-85 corridor.

The further east you are in this setup, the higher those rates are going to be as we get more frontogen between this cold front and the mid level warm front moving in from the south.

View attachment 166586
Where's the sweetspot?
 
Channel 11 out of Durham said about an hour left and the back edge would be east.
Ok and that was 55 mins ago, so you got 5 mins left, enjoy. Lol I think if you look at radar they may have been off just a tad
 
Hold up now….. went outside after Dinner … we didn’t win , but we covered the spread !!! Dusting in Mooresville Linwood Rd /152
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The mid level cold front is temporarily squeezing out better rates back over the I-85 corridor.

The further east you are in this setup, the higher those rates are going to be as we get more frontogen between this cold front and the mid level warm front moving in from the south.

View attachment 166586
How long before that front gets to Granville/Vance?
 
Where's the sweetspot?

The sweet spot here is east of I-95 in places like Goldsboro, Greenville, etc where you’re getting better forcing initially with warm advection that also helps build up the mid-level temperature gradient in advance of the cold front that comes in from the west
 
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