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Misc 2018 Banter & Venting Thread

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pcbjr said:
Need Larry on this one, but statistically, how often does Siberian cold make a trek to the SE? I can recall maybe 3 occasions over a long span, but can recall more, or so it seems, when the cold just stayed put over there. Not editorializing here, just wondering if Larry (most likely) or someone has any data to this effect.
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Based on my recollection, I agree with you that it usually doesn't lead to it getting real cold here. More often than not, my recollection is of folks complaining about it being so cold there and not coming to us. Most of our real cold airmasaes actually originate in the Arctic/Canada/AK as opposed to Siberia per Larry Cosgrove. The conditions that allow it to get so cold there (including air sort of getting stuck there) are usually not conducive to the SE getting very cold soon afterward. Also, with the global temp being fairly stable, think of real cold there often taking away from what we could have had.

This having been said, that doesn't mean there aren't times when it does indirectly lead to very cold in the SE.
 
GaWx said:
Based on my recollection, I agree with you that it usually doesn't lead to it getting real cold here. More often than not, my recollection is of folks complaining about it being so cold there and not coming to us. Most of our real cold airmasaes actually originate in the Arctic/Canada/AK as opposed to Siberia per Larry Cosgrove. The conditions that allow it to get so cold there (including air sort of getting stuck there) are usually not conducive to the SE getting very cold soon afterward. Also, with the global temp being fairly stable, think of real cold there often taking away from what we could have had.

This having been said, that doesn't mean there aren't times when it does indirectly lead to very cold in the SE.
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Larry,
Thanks!
It seems it would take an awful lot of energy to push such an air mass across the globe, and I just don't see that energy being there at present.
Last time I remember it happening was really double barrelled; it got into the Yukon and then a stout ridge formed out west and pushed it down, but that was before internet days if I recall correctly, so nothing but memory to work from ... :(
Best!
Phil
 
The Wiki will be undergoing a major upgrade in the next day or so. I have locked down the previous, to where admins must create you an account if you wanted to get involved, message one of us for an account.

Everyone can still read!
 
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Mason Dixon said:
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Better yet just stay off the roads you morons; hated to see the 8 car pileup in front of my neighborhood Wednesday am but those idiots came around a downhill left to right blind curve like they were on a dry road; and it was snow and ice covered. And for the most part none of them would've even known what sweet tea in a glass jar was. Not much snow where they're from.
 
Fresh snow is a joy to drive on with proper tires and 4WD. The problem is that the more cars drive over fresh snow, the more compacted it becomes, eventually turning into pure ice.

Ice is terrible in every way and nobody should attempt to drive with roads being icy. If you must go out, have tire chains at a bare minimum and avoid steep hills.
 
tractor girl said:
Fresh snow is a joy to drive on with proper tires and 4WD. The problem is that the more cars drive over fresh snow, the more compacted it becomes, eventually turning into pure ice.

Ice is terrible in every way and nobody should attempt to drive with roads being icy. If you must go out, have tire chains at a bare minimum and avoid steep hills.
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That was the problem around here. Had the people stayed home, the snow would have quickly melted. Instead people got on the roads and compacted it into sheets of ice.
 
Like I said, winter beat threads are mostly about fishing for winter weather or the chase for a lot of us and just some pattern talk...
 
I see it already, when the midlands finally do get hit by a winter storm this year, it'll be a ice storm with no snow. Lol
 
SCweather said:
I see it already, when the midlands finally do get hit by a winter storm this year, it'll be a ice storm with no snow. Lol
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Just wait for the high in the NE and weak to moderate low in the gulf; not too close to the coast.

I am still looking through all the historic events and the majority of time; that is the setup.
 
In fact from the 12z GFS today; this is the look. The low never gets going truly, becasue 500mb sucks. So this one will likely be a dud. The idea here is what can give CAE Winter storm warning criteria events: (look for a setup like this in the future that has a more robust wave coming out of the Southern Stream)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
 
I bet the next chance for anyone really here will be the second week of February. Then the upper south may get one more late in the month.

Watch the 2/12/18 date be the next real threat. Some others will remember why I say that.
 
Shawn said:
In fact from the 12z GFS today; this is the look. The low never gets going truly, becasue 500mb sucks. So this one will likely be a dud. The idea here is what can give CAE Winter storm warning criteria events: (look for a setup like this in the future that has a more robust wave coming out of the Southern Stream)

View attachment 3340
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I fail to believe we are somehow left out this Winter. I'm going to try and remain positive. We get that low moving in that right position, we are in business. It's happened before, it'll happen again. Hopefully we get a Feb 2010 set up, where CAE is the jack pot. Doubt it though.
 
I’m finally above freezing today and actually at 41 degrees so the snows a melting. It’s pretty amazing as I’ve had at least one inch of snow on the ground since last Friday night. Most of that time there was around 3 inches which just doesn’t happen that often even in the upper south. As far as winter being over that is very unlikely as it’s only January 19th. I’ve never had a February where I didn’t at least see Fluries including last year. In fact some parts of Middle Tennessee got a few inches of snow late last February or maybe even early March I believe. I just looked it up a few nights ago so I’ll try and find it again post it here. If parts of the south can get winter weather late in the season with a super warm winter like last year then it can certainly happen in a winter like this one.
 
SCweather said:
I fail to believe we are somehow left out this Winter. I'm going to try and remain positive. We get that low moving in that right position, we are in business. It's happened before, it'll happen again. Hopefully we get a Feb 2010 set up, where CAE is the jack pot. Doubt it though.
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I believe a -NAO would help, too. Which looks unlikely by what I have looked at so far.
 
By the time everything comes full circle, we'll probably have around half of Feb to go; at most. Then all the other problem scenarios into March start popping up.
 
Thank you God for the warmer weather. Hopefully the coldest of winter is behind us. I can tolerate highs in the 30s but when highs are in the single digits and teens thats too much.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It's all about the EPO! That's made this whole winter
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EPO isn't doing any favors for a while, and standing alone, it won't help much, even if it does go just a tad negative ...

Screen Shot 2018-01-19 at 3.28.48 PM.png

And, additionally, until the tropics (MJO) give us some relief ... :confused:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

Not all of the indices have to work, but dadgumit, at least some do, and for 10 -14 days, they are working on N to slightly AN.

If there is a change of any consequence, I'll be post/screaming it from the rooftops ... ;)

But - a ray of hope ...

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif
 
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Here’s the original information I was looking at and it was actually January of last year.

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But I also know we had snow in late March and so I dug a little more and found that Nashville actually got 1.5 inches in March and a trace in April last winter. I know somewhere in West Tennessee ended up with almost 4 inches on the same day but I’m not sure where. I do believe that most of it melted by evening but still it’s impressive with how warm last winter was. It gives us hope because last winter was about as warm as you’ll ever see and we still got snow.

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Edit: That said my backyard got nothing but Fluries even though places close to me got a little snow. :(
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ForsythSnow said:
Lol everyone trying to track a pseudo-threat. We are done for the month, move on. I don't see any signal for any wintry system of any kind. All I see is a warm up and severe weather threats from massive cutters. We don't get winter storms every week.
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Lol please if there was a pseudo-threat for your backyard you would be tracking it . You track that front end ice event a few weeks ago....

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Tarheel1 said:
It's all about the EPO! That's made this whole winter
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I'd argue that the intense SE cold since 12/31 has been more about the +PNA than the -EPO since the EPO has only averaged modestly negative while the PNA has averaged more strongly positive. A +1.00 PNA is about equivalent to a -200 EPO anomalywise. By the way, those super intense -EPO progs for late Dec. of like -400 to -500 never materialized as the lowest it got was only -184!!

EPO since 12/31/17:

2017 12 31 -75.75
2018 01 01 -80.24
2018 01 02 -78.47
2018 01 03 -108.34
2018 01 04 -112.18
2018 01 05 -53.59
2018 01 06 32.92
2018 01 07 5.21
2018 01 08 -33.81
2018 01 09 42.00
2018 01 10 53.01
2018 01 11 62.66
2018 01 12 27.16
2018 01 13 -28.90
2018 01 14 -49.49
2018 01 15 -26.64
2018 01 16 33.27
2018 01 17 63.32
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PNA since 12/31/17:

31Dec2017 0.68
01Jan2018 0.92
02Jan2018 1.16
03Jan2018 1.10
04Jan2018 0.90
05Jan2018 0.87
06Jan2018 1.02
07Jan2018 0.72
08Jan2018 0.51
09Jan2018 0.30
10Jan2018 0.16
11Jan2018 0.23
12Jan2018 0.43
13Jan2018 0.82
14Jan2018 1.04
15Jan2018 0.80
16Jan2018 0.24
17Jan2018 -0.67

Edit: Note the 8 +EPO days since 12/31 vs only 1 -PNA day since then.
 
Its been three years since our last good winter storm in Huntsville. While I can't expect a large storm every year, we are technically under the climatological average for the area.
 
GaWx said:
I'd argue that the intense SE cold since 12/31 has been more about the +PNA than the -EPO since the EPO has only averaged modestly negative while the PNA has averaged more strongly positive. A +1.00 PNA is about equivalent to a -200 EPO anomalywise. By the way, those super intense -EPO progs for late Dec. of like -400 to -500 never materialized as the lowest it got was only -184!!

EPO since 12/31/17:

2017 12 31 -75.75
2018 01 01 -80.24
2018 01 02 -78.47
2018 01 03 -108.34
2018 01 04 -112.18
2018 01 05 -53.59
2018 01 06 32.92
2018 01 07 5.21
2018 01 08 -33.81
2018 01 09 42.00
2018 01 10 53.01
2018 01 11 62.66
2018 01 12 27.16
2018 01 13 -28.90
2018 01 14 -49.49
2018 01 15 -26.64
2018 01 16 33.27
2018 01 17 63.32
-------------------------------------

PNA since 12/31/17:

31Dec2017 0.68
01Jan2018 0.92
02Jan2018 1.16
03Jan2018 1.10
04Jan2018 0.90
05Jan2018 0.87
06Jan2018 1.02
07Jan2018 0.72
08Jan2018 0.51
09Jan2018 0.30
10Jan2018 0.16
11Jan2018 0.23
12Jan2018 0.43
13Jan2018 0.82
14Jan2018 1.04
15Jan2018 0.80
16Jan2018 0.24
17Jan2018 -0.67

Edit: Note the 8 +EPO days since 12/31 vs only 1 -PNA day since then.
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I love facts, Larry! ;)
 
crecre9 said:
Its been three years since our last good winter storm in Huntsville. While I can't expect a large storm every year, we are technically under the climatological average for the area.
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yeah, the Tn Valley has been left out this winter, just brutal cold. Storm tracks have either been north or south of us. Usually when Huntsville gets good snow, Chattanooga follows.
 
SD said:
Good to see other boards taking our ideas

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SD said:
Good to see other boards taking our ideas

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That's a very good compliant to this board and the contribution from the Southernwx family. Just image what will happen later when we grow even more, this site is what a year, year and a half old. Thank you to all the folks behind curtain you do a great JOB!!
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We only realized about 3-4 days out, that a lot of us were going to get snow from the last system, some of us 2 days out! So trying to look at indicies, charts , models, strat warnings, NOAA temp/precip maps,is an exercise in futility!
 
Tarheel1 said:
We only realized about 3-4 days out, that a lot of us were going to get snow from the last system, some of us 2 days out! So trying to look at indicies, charts , models, strat warnings, NOAA temp/precip maps,is an exercise in futility!
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Very respectful question ... Then why bother reading, posting, or formulating an opinion?
 
Eh AmericanWX just upgraded their forum software; and the byproduct was a like/emote system. Nottheft or anything. Maybe moreso of IPB stealing from Xenforo. We aren't in any kind of competition with each other. ;)
 
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