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Tropical TS Isaias

How much wind inland has a lot to do with how healthy the core is....could be a fairly small area of peak winds....the other issue is how dry air and the jet stream hinder and help mix winds down....typically these will lower winds on the west side and boost winds on the east side.

Lastly the tornado threat is gonna be huge on the east side well away from the center.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Had a tornado go through the back yard in Atlanta or north of Atlanta in Roswell during Opal.


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I experienced Opal in Dunwoody. It was really bad. It was scary at times. The amount of trees knocked down and resulting outages all over the ATL area was extreme although the Blizzard of 1993 knocked down quite a few (along with plentiful outages), itself, due to the combo of high wind gusts and snow.

At this point, I’m not expecting anything of the sort as Opal for ATL, thank goodness, since I don’t think this will be as strong when it landfalls and the strongest winds may stay well W of ATL depending on track obviously. After all, Opal was close to the tropical storm of the century for ATL in terms of winds. Hopefully I’m not going to end up wrong on this as nothing is certain.
 
Arcc said:
HMON and HAFS definitely pound it with shear approaching the coast. Quite a change from yesterday. Gonna be a lot of variables with this.
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Can definitely see a world where it’s an ugly looking Hurricane (barely) at landfall

October Hurricanes can really go either way, for every Michael and Opal there’s a Nate
 
12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N Fl/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.
 
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Psalm 148:8 said:
No way!!! That storm was cat 3 at landfall and had tremendous 17 mph fwd speed.. on the right quadrant.. add the forward speed to those gusts.. unless this thing gets out of hand.. I think it won’t even be close..
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Hopefully you are right. Opal missed us to the west, but Helene nailed us good. The forward speed for both of them were bad news for inland areas.
 
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And new

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Psalm 148:8 said:
No way!!! That storm was cat 3 at landfall and had tremendous 17 mph fwd speed.. on the right quadrant.. add the forward speed to those gusts.. unless this thing gets out of hand.. I think it won’t even be close..
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Just to add Opal went from Pensacola to Montgomery in 6 hours... That was insanity

Also Opal was almost a Category 5 the morning before landfall

Pretty sure there's a huge difference here on both of these things
 
I wouldn't be so quick to presume that Isaias couldn't have had an impact inland similar to Opal's. The forward speed will be similar. Landfall intensity may also be similar. The chances of RI reaching major status, which causes a more eastward track, are not out of the question, IMO. And then there is the CAD pressure gradient, which I don't recall being a player with Opal.
 
I think it’s too soon to rule anything out. This was what Opal looked like at landfall in 1995 (Shoutout RadarScope). It’s possible we see a similar presentation with Isaias on Friday near the same area. Note how everything is North and East of center.

I wasn’t alive for Opal but that feels like it’s the gold standard for high end TS impacts across the Atlanta metro. This one looks to be further west but who knows what the final track ends up being. I don’t think we should expect Opal-like impacts but it’s too soon to know for sure. Birmingham could be at higher risk at this time.

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SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 92.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
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