Avalanche
Member
Man I’m surprised it’s that much, but glad we got it
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Pattern NC Only Thread
- Thread starter SD
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Went out this AM around Calabash/Shallotte and actually saw standing water in places. That was after complaining last night the pavement wasn't wet yet. Maybe I need to complain more, I dunno.
Donkey -> carrot 
12z AI euro is about as good as we could ask for
If 92L gets named, it'll be Isaias. Notable here for landfalling as cat1 at Ocean Isle August 2020. One of my biggest weather regrets is not chasing that one--Mom ended up in the eye. Might have been my only chance at experiencing that. I don't remember exactly why I didn't go down there. Probably thought it would be OTS or just didn't take an early Aug threat seriously.
Tsappfrog20
Member
It feels lovely out this morning!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I went through the eye of Ophelia in 2005 when it made landfall in North Carolina. That was the only time I've done that and it is surreal observing the high wind and rain blowing in one direction, then the calm that comes from the eye of a storm, and then the storm begins unleashing its fury with the winds blowing in the opposite direction. The eye itself was not totally clear, it was partly cloudy, but the sense of calm that comes with it was real.
Nice! I'd like to go thru the eye of a cat 1 like that. (mayyybe a low cat2 but no more than that--just my preference) I did go down for Matthew which was interesting (cat 1 gusts, but not sustained). The real fun was driving back to Raleigh the next day from the flooding. 3 hr drive turned into 8 hrs. Had to do something like 10 detours..
Are we finally gonna get a good soaking from something tropical up here?
Today wx outside is A+
I think the 12zIcon and 12zUkmet have the right idea. GFS op is on an island so far burying this thing till later on before lift off north. Everything so far since last night in model world is pointing toward upstate and foothills / escarpment area really cashing in qpf wise.
My best guess is a landfall at Gulf Shores Saturday a.m. around 4-7am as a 965mb storm.
I think the 12zIcon and 12zUkmet have the right idea. GFS op is on an island so far burying this thing till later on before lift off north. Everything so far since last night in model world is pointing toward upstate and foothills / escarpment area really cashing in qpf wise.
My best guess is a landfall at Gulf Shores Saturday a.m. around 4-7am as a 965mb storm.
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I think we have 100% pops late Friday through at least early Monday but we have some things that typically happen in our area that keep the precip totals in check. I think right around a general .5-1 for our area is a safe bet right now, convective processes may line up some totals of 2 or 3 inch totals but I would suspect the really large totals are tied down toward the beach, deep in the wedge zone of the NW piedmont and over toward the primary low track.
Hello the 0C 850 line
Like the new name btw.
Color is starting to pop off pretty good up top. They will be at/ perhaps past peak in about a week. looks like you got about 10-14 days before it peaks valley floors around NW NC and 3000 ft level
I was just out in the sun and didn’t start sweating.
Brent
Member
Yeah I noticed the AC has barely been running here and we're still above normal technically
Good thing too. The wife and I are doing some painting inside this week so we have to have windows open. Feels great
Did feel like Fall finally today. Gradually increasing activities and outdoor work since my heart procedure, I'm particularly grateful for today's weather. Keep it coming!
Was a fine day especially this morning, and we got 40’s tonight. Not too shabby.
Checking in with a 43 this a.m. / see lee county airport has a 42 / Roxboro 41. close but no cigar on anyone hitting a 39 over next hour.
Looks like all the overnight ops/ AI / ensembles give everyone in state 1.0+ from the cane leftovers. Some areas 2 +. We shall see, gonna get another wiggle & wrinkle or two before we know for sure.
Maybe we can get a more NE heading after landfall instead of due north.
Latest from Rah afd
Quick update on potential QPF for the weekend...
Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system will
likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF maximums
likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and near the
inland moving coastal front with this system between 12z Saturday
and 18z Sunday. Potential faster movement may help keep rainfall a
bit lower than it could potentially be. Current projections are
around 1 inch for central NC, with 2-3+ inches near the coastal
front and in the mountains.
Looks like all the overnight ops/ AI / ensembles give everyone in state 1.0+ from the cane leftovers. Some areas 2 +. We shall see, gonna get another wiggle & wrinkle or two before we know for sure.
Maybe we can get a more NE heading after landfall instead of due north.
Latest from Rah afd
Quick update on potential QPF for the weekend...
Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system will
likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF maximums
likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and near the
inland moving coastal front with this system between 12z Saturday
and 18z Sunday. Potential faster movement may help keep rainfall a
bit lower than it could potentially be. Current projections are
around 1 inch for central NC, with 2-3+ inches near the coastal
front and in the mountains.
I think it's funny that rah wrote their discussion like it was a good thing rain totals may be lower. Perhaps they don't have access to the drought monitor
42.4 brrrr feels great
How breezy are we looking like Sat-Sun? I cant access windgust maps, curious with HP to north and leftover gyre to SW.
20-25, maybe a chance to rip a few big ones out of the south on Sunday if the sun comes out
Shaggy
Member
Still have the Marine influence here at the coast so we only got down to 57 last night congrats to all you guys on the Low mid-40s
A lot of the cref products have radar echoes here overnight Friday but most don't have qpf until late saturday. Wedge doing work
Fun w/ NWS point&click. MBY has 100% rain chance Sat night, while 3 miles W of me has 90%. (it’s a rounding thing but still interesting)
And those are very high precip chances 72 hours in advance.
And those are very high precip chances 72 hours in advance.
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January lol
And on that note. Can’t wait for the leaves to change, bonfires on cold nights, winter storm threads, and complaining about how much more snow GSO gets than RDU every event.
Latest GFS is a pipe dream on qpf.
Anyway I'll be shocked if we net .25-.50 here this weekend. See it on the models and finally Rah NWS recognizes it.
Latest AFD Highlight.
The timing of showers for central NC continues to focus on late
Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. We will likely have the
large surface high shift east and off the New England coast Saturday
night and Sunday as the tropical cyclone weakens to a depression and
remnant low. As this occurs, showers are expected over the far
southern and western areas that will likely set up a CAD event by
Saturday night. A coastal front is expected along the SE US, and
this will likely get pulled inland (NW) into SC and far SE NC on
Saturday night.
Central NC may have to rely on a secondary low
pressure to form along this boundary for the most significant rain
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. In an interesting twist, the
NW Piedmont may again have a minimum in QPF with this event with the
expected CAD in that region. The ESE upslope flow into the Blue
Ridge should lead to a maximum there. And, the coastal front`s
secondary low should lead to a maximum of QPF over the Coastal Plain
and maybe the eastern Piedmont. Overall, 0.5 to 1 inch storm totals
in the NW Piedmont and 1-2 inches elsewhere.
Showers should taper off and end quickly on Sunday with the dry slot
and the sinking/downslope flow in the rear of the system as it
departs to our N-NE. Sunshine and warmth will likely return
later Sunday.
Anyway I'll be shocked if we net .25-.50 here this weekend. See it on the models and finally Rah NWS recognizes it.
Latest AFD Highlight.
The timing of showers for central NC continues to focus on late
Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. We will likely have the
large surface high shift east and off the New England coast Saturday
night and Sunday as the tropical cyclone weakens to a depression and
remnant low. As this occurs, showers are expected over the far
southern and western areas that will likely set up a CAD event by
Saturday night. A coastal front is expected along the SE US, and
this will likely get pulled inland (NW) into SC and far SE NC on
Saturday night.
Central NC may have to rely on a secondary low
pressure to form along this boundary for the most significant rain
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. In an interesting twist, the
NW Piedmont may again have a minimum in QPF with this event with the
expected CAD in that region. The ESE upslope flow into the Blue
Ridge should lead to a maximum there. And, the coastal front`s
secondary low should lead to a maximum of QPF over the Coastal Plain
and maybe the eastern Piedmont. Overall, 0.5 to 1 inch storm totals
in the NW Piedmont and 1-2 inches elsewhere.
Showers should taper off and end quickly on Sunday with the dry slot
and the sinking/downslope flow in the rear of the system as it
departs to our N-NE. Sunshine and warmth will likely return
later Sunday.
Just popping in to say rain totals are in big trouble. Tks
Tsappfrog20
Member
I think he was being negative about our chances however the further east this storm makes landfall will have an effect on our rain chances I would guess it would increase them here but that’s just me guessing
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Wouldn't be too sure, still looks to hook left after LF and main rain shield goes west of apps. Coastal development of secondary LP not as much a sure thing either.